Kurzweil's thesis is that technological change is exponential, but that our view of this change is linear, so we are extremely bad at predicting the future. He

Kurzweil's thesis is that technological change is exponential, but that our view of this change is linear, so we are extremely bad at predicting the future. He then tries to extrapolate this exponential change in, for example, processing power per cent, and tries to draw conclusions about what a society would look like where the processing power to simulate a human brain costs a dollar. However, and this is why I side with GP, Kurzweils predictions are all veeeery conveniently made such that he himself will escape death, because he is absolutely obsessed and terrified by death, so I think he's succumbing to wishful thinking. He likes to publish future predictions, and his track record over the last decades is pretty meh.