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I'm not advocating for his 2030 date, but his reasoning for it directly addresses the concern you voice. His contention is that progress in a field happens at a

I'm not advocating for his 2030 date, but his reasoning for it directly addresses the concern you voice. His contention is that progress in a field happens at a superexponential rate, and that researchers and/or the public tend to estimate it at well less than exponential. He believes, and tries to make the case, that advances don't just advance, but feed into the infrastructure that drives faster advances. Also, "around 2030" does run out to, say, 2035 if you push it. That feels less implausible to me than, say, 2030-01-01. Again, I'm not saying he's right. I'm mainly saying that he expects your or my surprise when he opens his mouth, and has something like the explanation I sketched out at the ready.

jfoutz 8y ago
Bill Gates said something like that. You always over estimate what you can do in a year. But you’re always shocked at how much happened in seven.
Digit-Al 8y ago
That's all very well, but her is my objection (apologies in advance if I don't express my views in the clearest manner). The objective of creating AI is to create a computer that is 'self aware'. The problem being that we have no way of defining self awareness. We humans have been struggling with the problems of self awareness for over 2000 years but still seem to be no nearer to coming up with any clear definition, explanation, or measure. Even research using our latest, greatest, brain scanning and imaging technology instead of making things clearer seem to be muddying the waters even further by suggesting that our self awareness may, at least in part, be an illusion. There is no test we can give right now that can prove beyond doubt that even another person is actually self aware. We all assume everyone else has the same sense of self awareness that we do, but we have no way of verifying that. And then look at something like the octopus. We have enough evidence from their behaviour to suggest that they may possibly have some form of self awareness, but they are so alien to us that we currently have no possible way of finding out. So how are we supposed to replicate something that we don't understand, don't know how to recognise, can't measure, and don't even know if it exists? Obviously, I could be wrong. In the last 50 years our world has been transformed beyond the most wild imaginings of our grandparents when they were children. But if you agree with my statements above (of course you may not agree) then you have to agree that 12 years seems insanely optimistic. Even 20 or 30 years seems rather optimistic to crack one of the most fundamental mysteries of our existence.

jfoutz 8y ago

Bill Gates said something like that. You always over estimate what you can do in a year. But you’re always shocked at how much happened in seven.

Digit-Al 8y ago

That's all very well, but her is my objection (apologies in advance if I don't express my views in the clearest manner). The objective of creating AI is to create a computer that is 'self aware'. The problem being that we have no way of defining self awareness. We humans have been struggling with the problems of self awareness for over 2000 years but still seem to be no nearer to coming up with any clear definition, explanation, or measure. Even research using our latest, greatest, brain scanning and imaging technology instead of making things clearer seem to be muddying the waters even further by suggesting that our self awareness may, at least in part, be an illusion. There is no test we can give right now that can prove beyond doubt that even another person is actually self aware. We all assume everyone else has the same sense of self awareness that we do, but we have no way of verifying that. And then look at something like the octopus. We have enough evidence from their behaviour to suggest that they may possibly have some form of self awareness, but they are so alien to us that we currently have no possible way of finding out. So how are we supposed to replicate something that we don't understand, don't know how to recognise, can't measure, and don't even know if it exists? Obviously, I could be wrong. In the last 50 years our world has been transformed beyond the most wild imaginings of our grandparents when they were children. But if you agree with my statements above (of course you may not agree) then you have to agree that 12 years seems insanely optimistic. Even 20 or 30 years seems rather optimistic to crack one of the most fundamental mysteries of our existence.