4 ms·

Makes me wonder - is it all luck at some level? After the fact one can look and see - what made all the successes successful? What attributes do they all share

Makes me wonder - is it all luck at some level? After the fact one can look and see - what made all the successes successful? What attributes do they all share? Is it only that they succeeded?

jrockway 19y ago
I don't think it's 100% luck. Larry and Sergey liked working on search engines and said "hey, let's make a company". It turned out that other people liked their search engine too, so they made money. If you have the same passion for something else, that's only half the battle. The other half is making sure your passion aligns with the passion of people willing to give you money. I've come up with a few good ideas in my life that I'd love to do as my "real job", but I know nobody else would be interested. That is why I am not a millionaire :) Of course, the luck is being able to predict what people will want.
- dangoldin 19y ago
  It would be even better if you were able to share your passion with others and then capitalize on that ensuing demand. It seems Google may have reached that point when every one of their new products is praised and lauded - they make the market where none existed yet.
- goodgoblin 19y ago
  I hear what you are saying - I'm just thinking luck is the multiplier - ebay, google, etc - how many other search engines aren't as successful? how many ebays does no one know about? I guess luck is timing to some degree - but its also plain luck. All of the monday morning quarterbacking that goes on seems obvious in retrospect, but the future is still completely uncertain. VC's expect 1 in 10 to fail b/c thats just historically what has happened. If they knew what made the 1 hit they wouldn't fund the 9 losers. I'm just saying, really nothing new I guess, that the business of predicting the future by looking at the past is colored by confirmation bias. What characteristic do all self made men have in common? They took alot of risk. However, thats also the same trait incarcerated bank-robbers have in common. I'm just saying prediction is impossible. By all means do what you love b/c if it crashes and burns at least you won't have hated the last 2 years of your life.
- mixmax 19y ago
  They were lucky they happened upon an algorithm as smart as they did. They were lucky to get initial funding. They were lucky to find a great income model. They were lucky that nobody else took search serious.
  - huherto 19y ago
    Luck is when opportunity meets preparation
pxlpshr 19y ago
Sometimes it's about staying in the game long enough to get your first deal. And I quote, "10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain, and 100% reason to remember the name." - Linkin Park Corny but applicable. :)
- mrtron 19y ago
  Very corny, but it is by Fort Minor which I think has one of the dudes form Linkin Park.

Makes me wonder - is it all luck at some level? After the fact one can look and see - what made all the successes successful? What attributes do they all share? Is it only that they succeeded?

jrockway 19y ago

I don't think it's 100% luck. Larry and Sergey liked working on search engines and said "hey, let's make a company". It turned out that other people liked their search engine too, so they made money. If you have the same passion for something else, that's only half the battle. The other half is making sure your passion aligns with the passion of people willing to give you money. I've come up with a few good ideas in my life that I'd love to do as my "real job", but I know nobody else would be interested. That is why I am not a millionaire :) Of course, the luck is being able to predict what people will want.

dangoldin 19y ago
It would be even better if you were able to share your passion with others and then capitalize on that ensuing demand. It seems Google may have reached that point when every one of their new products is praised and lauded - they make the market where none existed yet.
goodgoblin 19y ago
I hear what you are saying - I'm just thinking luck is the multiplier - ebay, google, etc - how many other search engines aren't as successful? how many ebays does no one know about? I guess luck is timing to some degree - but its also plain luck. All of the monday morning quarterbacking that goes on seems obvious in retrospect, but the future is still completely uncertain. VC's expect 1 in 10 to fail b/c thats just historically what has happened. If they knew what made the 1 hit they wouldn't fund the 9 losers. I'm just saying, really nothing new I guess, that the business of predicting the future by looking at the past is colored by confirmation bias. What characteristic do all self made men have in common? They took alot of risk. However, thats also the same trait incarcerated bank-robbers have in common. I'm just saying prediction is impossible. By all means do what you love b/c if it crashes and burns at least you won't have hated the last 2 years of your life.
mixmax 19y ago
They were lucky they happened upon an algorithm as smart as they did. They were lucky to get initial funding. They were lucky to find a great income model. They were lucky that nobody else took search serious.
- huherto 19y ago
  Luck is when opportunity meets preparation

pxlpshr 19y ago

Sometimes it's about staying in the game long enough to get your first deal. And I quote, "10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain, and 100% reason to remember the name." - Linkin Park Corny but applicable. :)

mrtron 19y ago
Very corny, but it is by Fort Minor which I think has one of the dudes form Linkin Park.