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How do you deal with the cultural challenge of convincing people there's value and selfish benefits to having more transparency? I've noticed that in large org

How do you deal with the cultural challenge of convincing people there's value and selfish benefits to having more transparency? I've noticed that in large organizations certain information are held by a small number of people who may be reluctant to share them for political reasons. Another challenge with internal prediction markets is the possibility that knowing the "probability" of an project-related outcome reduces morale and hence creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that further reduces the chance of success. Appreciate your insights.

JohannesH 8y ago
You might be right about the self-fulfilling prophecy. But this effect might already be in effect, as people might already have a gut feeling, while nobody cares (or knows) about it.
- Jach 8y ago
  A trivial instance of this would be release planning in software. After our initial delivery plan my team gives a confidence measure, one release it was quite low, which was an important signal since we could discuss why that was and what we could cut to increase the confidence. Without that signal, we'd have overcommitted, and suspecting as much but without common knowledge might have even delivered less.
- tysonzni 8y ago
  You're right. But I think the single-value, hyper-transparent nature of prediction market can create an institutional feedback loop that's more powerful than what arises from the diverse, individually held opinions that others don't know about.
adam 8y ago
YOu're right, this is indeed a challenge. But the benefit is often they're not getting screwed by bad planning, over promising, etc. Afterall, those are the kinds of decisions that really burn people out. Instead, they finally get a chance to have a say. Also, I'd argue all the information you're talking about that is potentially decreasing morale is already out there, it's just not being officially recognized/aggregated. At least this way, it's surfaced, and management understands what the perception is out there and can address it head on. Bottom line, these aren't for everyone. One of the first questions I ask when someone expresses interest is what their culture is like and how humble their leadership is. If they're ready for it, prediction market can be transformative. But if they're not, they can fail - and we've surely had plenty of those projects too!

JohannesH 8y ago

You might be right about the self-fulfilling prophecy. But this effect might already be in effect, as people might already have a gut feeling, while nobody cares (or knows) about it.

Jach 8y ago
A trivial instance of this would be release planning in software. After our initial delivery plan my team gives a confidence measure, one release it was quite low, which was an important signal since we could discuss why that was and what we could cut to increase the confidence. Without that signal, we'd have overcommitted, and suspecting as much but without common knowledge might have even delivered less.
tysonzni 8y ago
You're right. But I think the single-value, hyper-transparent nature of prediction market can create an institutional feedback loop that's more powerful than what arises from the diverse, individually held opinions that others don't know about.

adam 8y ago

YOu're right, this is indeed a challenge. But the benefit is often they're not getting screwed by bad planning, over promising, etc. Afterall, those are the kinds of decisions that really burn people out. Instead, they finally get a chance to have a say. Also, I'd argue all the information you're talking about that is potentially decreasing morale is already out there, it's just not being officially recognized/aggregated. At least this way, it's surfaced, and management understands what the perception is out there and can address it head on. Bottom line, these aren't for everyone. One of the first questions I ask when someone expresses interest is what their culture is like and how humble their leadership is. If they're ready for it, prediction market can be transformative. But if they're not, they can fail - and we've surely had plenty of those projects too!