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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google [pdf]
- amasad 8y agoConclusion (emphasis is mine): In the past few years, many companies have experimented with prediction markets. In this paper, we analyze the largest such experiment we are aware of. We find that prices in Google’s markets closely approximated event probabilities, but did contain some biases, especially early in our sample. The most interesting of these was an optimism bias, which was more pronounced for subjects under the control of Google employees, such as would a project be completed on time or would a particular office be opened. Optimism was more present in the trading of newly hired employees, and was significantly more pronounced on and immediately following days with Google stock price appreciation. Our optimism results are interesting given the role that optimism is often thought to play in motivation and the success of entrepreneurial firms. They raise the possibility of a “stock price‐optimism‐performance‐stock price” feedback that may be worthy of further investigation. We also examine how information and beliefs about prediction market topics move around an organization. We find a significant role for micro‐geography. The trading of physically proximate employees is correlated, and only becomes correlated after the employees begin to sit near each other, suggesting a causal relationship. Work and social connections play a detectable but significantly smaller role. An important caveat to our results is that they tell us about information flows about prediction market subjects, many of which are ancillary to employees’ main jobs. This may explain why physical proximity matters so much more than work relationships – if prediction market topics are lower‐priority subjects on which to exchange information, then information exchange may require the opportunities for low‐opportunity‐cost communication created by physical proximity. Of course, introspection suggests that genuinely creative ideas often arise from such low‐opportunity‐cost communication. Google’s frequent office moves and emphasis on product innovation may provide an ideal testing ground in which to better understand the creative process.
- tw1010 8y agoInteresting, so if you want to cultivate a diverse set of opinions and ideas in your company, it's enough to place them on different floors – no need to move them to different cities.
- adam 8y agoHaving now run prediction markets inside companies for over 10 years, we can definitely backup the findings in the paper - especially the revelations of bias among different types of employees. We usually ask people to participate anonymously, and it's often the only outlet people have to express what they truly think. It's always a surreal experience to sit in a meeting with people and their bosses and hear "we're on track, no issues, the new product launch is going to be great, we're going to sell a ton, etc. etc." and then have a private/informal meeting with the same people who will confide that the project/product/strategy is completely fucked and everyone thinks that. :)
- trishume 8y agoCan you share any of the companies you've run prediction markets for? I'm curious.
- adam 8y agoThe U.S. Intelligence Community does quite a bit of research in this space that we're involved in, we're also working with pharma, energy, large manufacturing. The profile (in the commercial space) tends to be very capital intensive orgs/projects, where if you can use a prediction market as an "early warning system" by surfacing what people actually know, you can potentially save them a lot of heartache (and money and pissed off/laid off employees, etc.)
- prepend 8y agoIs this a consulting service? Or do you offer software? If you don’t mind me asking, what’s the average project size using a prediction market.
- aristocles 8y agoAugur is my favorite shitcoin for this very reason.
- iagovar 8y agoIs there anything public beyond betfair and predictit? Specially for the EU