3 ms·

Thanks for the additional analysis. Overall, I agree your assumptions are probably more accurate, and the end total is less. Still, it's within a factor of 2.

by chubot 9y ago

Thanks for the additional analysis. Overall, I agree your assumptions are probably more accurate, and the end total is less. Still, it's within a factor of 2. She did beat the market, but it feels like it's within the realm of good decisions / luck, not insider trading. On the other hand, the article does say it: she copied trading from her colleagues. It's certainly plausible that her colleagues' decisions were that shrewd and gave her a bump. I wouldn't expect a bunch of lawyers in NYC in 2018 to consistently do much better than average in the market, but in the 60's in 70's the market was completely different. They could probably do much better back then, since information didn't spread as fast, and they were close to it. I mean, at that time I wouldn't be surprised if simply working physically near Wall St. led to better returns. Though I still think the more remarkable thing here is the amount of time, not the investment strategy. The 31 years of working past retirement age multiplied the total by significant factor no matter how you look at it.

verelo 9y ago
Agreed, i didn’t talk about option c) time. However, even if we extend the analysis i cannot get it there with ease. It is a shame we cannot just ask her about her contribution amounts and timing! I don’t recall the source but i was recently reading about a long term study on insider trading and it was found to be somewhat common. Like damn, i even have insider tips i could offer (don’t ask, i won’t!) but I’m not the only one with this info and some of the people i work with I’ve witnessed do questionable things in other areas of life that lead me to think it’s possible they might wink the right way as they talk to someone that shares a tip. At the end of the day investing is something we should probably all do, but i wouldn’t use this as an example of what most people will achieve. It demonstrates a very happy outcome, and while i think it shows what can happen, i wouldn’t call it average, I’d still have to say she did better than most; she beat the market, somehow, either through info or by having more time to execute a better strategy that most cannot achieve.

by chubot 9y ago

verelo 9y ago

Agreed, i didn’t talk about option c) time. However, even if we extend the analysis i cannot get it there with ease. It is a shame we cannot just ask her about her contribution amounts and timing! I don’t recall the source but i was recently reading about a long term study on insider trading and it was found to be somewhat common. Like damn, i even have insider tips i could offer (don’t ask, i won’t!) but I’m not the only one with this info and some of the people i work with I’ve witnessed do questionable things in other areas of life that lead me to think it’s possible they might wink the right way as they talk to someone that shares a tip. At the end of the day investing is something we should probably all do, but i wouldn’t use this as an example of what most people will achieve. It demonstrates a very happy outcome, and while i think it shows what can happen, i wouldn’t call it average, I’d still have to say she did better than most; she beat the market, somehow, either through info or by having more time to execute a better strategy that most cannot achieve.