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Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. China is aging at a very fast pace [1] as their workers are gett

by npunt 9y ago

Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. China is aging at a very fast pace [1] as their workers are getting older and not being replaced (the tornado chart is pretty stark). This is going to slow the economy considerably. Given other more developed countries have a technology advantage that they're not sharing and they do not face a demographic crunch, its possible China will find themselves perpetually behind in many areas. [1] https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/ https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/

baybal2 9y ago
>Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. No, they don't need to to begin with. They are smart enough to not to parrot late USSR. Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets.
- netheril96 9y ago
  > Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets. That used to be a working strategy. But now that ZTE was sanctioned by the US and almost crumbled overnight, it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets". So China has no choice but to master the state-of-the-art of every important sector.
  - dis-sys 9y ago
    > it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets" that is not very smart. the ZTE drama is a wake up call for Chinese, the message is loud and clear - US products are not reliable in term of its supply, it can be cut at any time for some stupid political reasons ordered by a moronic US president like Trump. if you look at the whole story, it is push the lower limit of the business IQ - - forcing your competitor to invest in high profit sectors - telling your customers to rely on less American products by convincing them that the supply won't be reliable US deserves a better president.
    - rmk 9y ago
      Perhaps you have missed some facts. ZTE repeatedly (> 100 times) violated the terms of a court ordered probation, intentionally gave misleading information, despite being levied a > 1B fine (the original reason for sanctions: sending some US-origin items to Iran, obstructing justice, and making a material false statement). The Government decided to go this route after they realised that the sanctions route did not lead to the right behaviour. This would have been pretty uncontroversial under any other President. Read this for more detail on ZTE's malfeasance: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-guilty-and-pay-over-4304-million-violating-us-sanctions-sending https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-...

by npunt 9y ago

baybal2 9y ago

>Not sure its a guarantee that China will master the state-of-the-art of every important sector. No, they don't need to to begin with. They are smart enough to not to parrot late USSR. Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets.

netheril96 9y ago
> Instead, it is seems more evident with each day that they use counterstrategy - sealing West's advancements in what will be the stem of state-of-the-art tech tomorrow, for cheap, instead of fighting for already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets. That used to be a working strategy. But now that ZTE was sanctioned by the US and almost crumbled overnight, it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets". So China has no choice but to master the state-of-the-art of every important sector.
- dis-sys 9y ago
  > it is obvious that the United States is capable and willing to throttle China on these "already substantial, but heading for decline things-that-matter markets" that is not very smart. the ZTE drama is a wake up call for Chinese, the message is loud and clear - US products are not reliable in term of its supply, it can be cut at any time for some stupid political reasons ordered by a moronic US president like Trump. if you look at the whole story, it is push the lower limit of the business IQ - - forcing your competitor to invest in high profit sectors - telling your customers to rely on less American products by convincing them that the supply won't be reliable US deserves a better president.
  - rmk 9y ago
    Perhaps you have missed some facts. ZTE repeatedly (> 100 times) violated the terms of a court ordered probation, intentionally gave misleading information, despite being levied a > 1B fine (the original reason for sanctions: sending some US-origin items to Iran, obstructing justice, and making a material false statement). The Government decided to go this route after they realised that the sanctions route did not lead to the right behaviour. This would have been pretty uncontroversial under any other President. Read this for more detail on ZTE's malfeasance: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-guilty-and-pay-over-4304-million-violating-us-sanctions-sending https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/zte-corporation-agrees-plead-...