4 ms·

4% after inflation is not easy

by jiveturkey 9y ago

dannyw 9y ago
A S&P 500 index fund will get you that.
- ghazak 9y ago
  At fees of 4/100ths of a percent. Vanguard has created a simply enormous consumer surplus. Thank you Bogle.
- adrianN 9y ago
  Starting in what year?
  - dannyw 9y ago
    Starting in any >25 year period since 1903, I think.
    - adrianN 9y ago
      I looked it up. There are long periods where it performed just above inflation. http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html?ref=business http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/...
      - loeg 9y ago
        Nope. That graph is incredibly misleading. Note that the middle color represents 3-7% inflation-adjusted returns after "fees and taxes" (how are those calculated?) and the light red color represents 0-3% inflation-adjusted returns (again after fees and taxes). 6.2% is the claimed average inflation-adjusted return. A lump sum invested for 67 years at 6.2% is something like a 5500% return on initial investment. Very few start dates yield poor returns over a 20-year period, and fewer over a 25+ year period. Much less 67 years. I'm also not sure about the methodology of "including fees and taxes," since the average mutual fund fee has been very high until quite recently, despite Vanguard's start in the 70s, and taxes are highly individual. The article is light on details.
  - loeg 9y ago
    Pretty much any year. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/deconstructing-30-year-stock-market-returns/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/deconstructing-30-ye... > The worst 30 year return — using rolling monthly performance — occurred at the height of the market just before the Great Depression and stocks still returned almost 8% per year over the ensuing three decades. (This number is not adjusted for inflation, but still.) https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-2009-4061795 https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-20... > The S&P 500 Index, shown in bright red, delivered its worst twenty-year return of 6.4% a year over the twenty years ending in May 1979.
- badpun 9y ago
  s/will get you that/has been known to get you that in the past/ Who knows what the future holds.
MrPowers 9y ago
Yep, agreed, especially with current market conditions (high asset prices and low bond yields). Research Affiliates has an awesome tool that shows expected returns by asset class (https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation.html#!/?currency=USD&model=ER&scale=LINEAR&terms=REAL https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation....) and European equity / Emerging Markets equity are the only asset classes expected to yield 4%+ real annual returns over the next 10 years.

4% after inflation is not easy

dannyw 9y ago

A S&P 500 index fund will get you that.

ghazak 9y ago
At fees of 4/100ths of a percent. Vanguard has created a simply enormous consumer surplus. Thank you Bogle.
adrianN 9y ago
Starting in what year?
- dannyw 9y ago
  Starting in any >25 year period since 1903, I think.
  - adrianN 9y ago
    I looked it up. There are long periods where it performed just above inflation. http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html?ref=business http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/...
    - loeg 9y ago
      Nope. That graph is incredibly misleading. Note that the middle color represents 3-7% inflation-adjusted returns after "fees and taxes" (how are those calculated?) and the light red color represents 0-3% inflation-adjusted returns (again after fees and taxes). 6.2% is the claimed average inflation-adjusted return. A lump sum invested for 67 years at 6.2% is something like a 5500% return on initial investment. Very few start dates yield poor returns over a 20-year period, and fewer over a 25+ year period. Much less 67 years. I'm also not sure about the methodology of "including fees and taxes," since the average mutual fund fee has been very high until quite recently, despite Vanguard's start in the 70s, and taxes are highly individual. The article is light on details.
- loeg 9y ago
  Pretty much any year. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/deconstructing-30-year-stock-market-returns/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/deconstructing-30-ye... > The worst 30 year return — using rolling monthly performance — occurred at the height of the market just before the Great Depression and stocks still returned almost 8% per year over the ensuing three decades. (This number is not adjusted for inflation, but still.) https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-2009-4061795 https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-index-returns-1973-mid-20... > The S&P 500 Index, shown in bright red, delivered its worst twenty-year return of 6.4% a year over the twenty years ending in May 1979.
badpun 9y ago
s/will get you that/has been known to get you that in the past/ Who knows what the future holds.

MrPowers 9y ago

Yep, agreed, especially with current market conditions (high asset prices and low bond yields). Research Affiliates has an awesome tool that shows expected returns by asset class (https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation.html#!/?currency=USD&model=ER&scale=LINEAR&terms=REAL https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation....) and European equity / Emerging Markets equity are the only asset classes expected to yield 4%+ real annual returns over the next 10 years.