5 ms·

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-... Even with bad market timing,

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-... Even with bad market timing, you still have pretty good odds if you are genuinely dedicated to the task. Keep in mind, to succeed in ~20 years in almost all market conditions you would need to save 50-60% of your before-tax income.

sokoloff 8y ago
MMM has done a blog post covering the issue of how long it takes to save for early [or not] retirement at a spread of savings rates. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si... Under his assumptions, to retire in 20 years takes a savings rate of around 44%.
- AFNobody 8y ago
  His math is a little optimistic when we are talking about "almost all market conditions" and once you start factoring in things that might go wrong, like a couple years of unemployment stretched over a 20 year career. MMM ignores a ton of statistically common problems (like 4 bouts of unemployment over 20 years).
  - sokoloff 8y ago
    All models are wrong, but some models are useful.
    - AFNobody 8y ago
      If it is obvious predictable stuff, like being unemployed that almost everyone experiences eventually it isn't useful.
      - sokoloff 8y ago
        "[A] couple years of unemployment stretched over a 20 year career" seems to be an extreme outlier for the tech field. I worked through the 2000 and 2008 crashes and I can't think of anyone I worked with in tech who was involuntarily unemployed for more than a few weeks at a time and certainly not for 10% of the total time. (Voluntarily for personal reasons like they decided to stay home with a kid, sure.) Yes, years or 10%+ of unemployment would derail retirement savings. A few weeks here and there doesn't.
        AFNobody 8y ago
        So now we are going from the general case to the Bay area tech crowd? I think you live in a bubble, honestly. Get out of it and realize how most people live.
        sokoloff 8y ago
        I see it differently. I think we’re in a sub thread on a tech discussion site about tech workers trying to retire in their 40s and what savings rate is required to do that. You’re the one trying to steer the discussion into a general case.

sokoloff 8y ago

MMM has done a blog post covering the issue of how long it takes to save for early [or not] retirement at a spread of savings rates. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si... Under his assumptions, to retire in 20 years takes a savings rate of around 44%.

AFNobody 8y ago
His math is a little optimistic when we are talking about "almost all market conditions" and once you start factoring in things that might go wrong, like a couple years of unemployment stretched over a 20 year career. MMM ignores a ton of statistically common problems (like 4 bouts of unemployment over 20 years).
- sokoloff 8y ago
  All models are wrong, but some models are useful.
  - AFNobody 8y ago
    If it is obvious predictable stuff, like being unemployed that almost everyone experiences eventually it isn't useful.
    - sokoloff 8y ago
      "[A] couple years of unemployment stretched over a 20 year career" seems to be an extreme outlier for the tech field. I worked through the 2000 and 2008 crashes and I can't think of anyone I worked with in tech who was involuntarily unemployed for more than a few weeks at a time and certainly not for 10% of the total time. (Voluntarily for personal reasons like they decided to stay home with a kid, sure.) Yes, years or 10%+ of unemployment would derail retirement savings. A few weeks here and there doesn't.
      - AFNobody 8y ago
        So now we are going from the general case to the Bay area tech crowd? I think you live in a bubble, honestly. Get out of it and realize how most people live.
        sokoloff 8y ago
        I see it differently. I think we’re in a sub thread on a tech discussion site about tech workers trying to retire in their 40s and what savings rate is required to do that. You’re the one trying to steer the discussion into a general case.