Doing it successfully, defined as a measurable outcome, requires that you have a pretty accurate assessment of both the landscape, your abilities and the path t

Doing it successfully, defined as a measurable outcome, requires that you have a pretty accurate assessment of both the landscape, your abilities and the path to achieve the goal - with some factor considered for deviation from the charted path. I agree, but for longer term goals, an extremely large amount of luck involved. Sometimes the right opportunities and persons just line up. I often realize that I'd be in a completely different (and probably worse) place if my 22 and 26-year old self didn't encounter the right persons and opportunities. My current career path was largely unplanned, but is better than I hoped for or planned when I was in my early to mid-20ies.