> If I flip a coin 20 times and happen to end up with a 15:5 split that doesn’t mean the chance of heads is 3:1. Isn't it the best you can say, though? 20 is

> If I flip a coin 20 times and happen to end up with a 15:5 split that doesn’t mean the chance of heads is 3:1. Isn't it the best you can say, though? 20 is a small number but when it's all you have, there's nothing you can do about it. Of course we know the "real" probability is a 1/2 because we know how coin tosses work, but if we didn't know it and coin tosses were black boxes, we'd have to go with this 3:1 chance.