> but why is it happening in China first? Countries where the 24 month subsidy cycle is dominant will have a lot more inertia that countries where they are rar

> but why is it happening in China first? Countries where the 24 month subsidy cycle is dominant will have a lot more inertia that countries where they are rare. Also, China is home to the "cheap flagship" brands, so much of the middle range of the market will already buy close to the technological limit. In countries where the middle of the market is mostly held by the lesser offerings of more premium brands, upgrades to a higher price tier can effectively substitute technological progress (for a while): customers expect a faster phone after n years, and if the technology doesn't deliver many will be willing extend their price range. If it helps. For those who already had a "cheap flagship", it won't.