8 ms·

I fully concede this (and jacobolus's) point. I'm not a health researcher either, so don't take my word for any of this. Building a double-blind clinical trial

I fully concede this (and jacobolus's) point. I'm not a health researcher either, so don't take my word for any of this. Building a double-blind clinical trial regarding changing people's diets over their lifetime and observing cardiovascular mortality is very hard. Some clinical studies do exist, but they are usually looking over shorter terms and at heart disease risk factors rather than mortality. These show similar results: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16368299 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16368299 - Systolic blood pressure decreased from 144 (SE +/- 1.1) to 134 mm Hg (SE +/- 2, P < .001), and diastolic blood pressure decreased from 87.4 (SE +/- 1.2) to 83.4 mm Hg (SE +/- 1.2, P < .05) from tomato extract. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26328470 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26328470 - In the subgroup of hypertensives, quercetin (onion skin extract) decreased 24 h systolic BP by -3·6 mmHg (P=0·022) when compared with placebo (mean treatment difference, -3·9 mmHg; P=0·049). Many of the epidemiological studies also adjust for many of the features that you might look for. For example https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/30/1/130/619054 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/30/1/130/619054 adjusts for "age, randomized treatment, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, history of high cholesterol, and use of multivitamins" and comes to the same conclusion.

toasterlovin 8y ago
> Building a double-blind clinical trial regarding changing people's diets over their lifetime and observing cardiovascular mortality is very hard. But it is the only diet research that can actually generate knowledge. The studies you cite are nice and all, but the first two are for studies that measured outcomes after 6-8 weeks. If you assume an average lifespan of 70 years, the longest study represented ~1/450th of a human lifespan. And, as you mention, they only measure what we think are valid indicators, not actual outcomes! And the third study may control for all of the things you mention, but it doesn't control for the other foods the study participants ate! Really the only piece of information that you need to know regarding red meat is that public health messaging for the last 50 years has been that people should limit red meat intake. And it was successful. According to this[0], red meat consumption has decreased from 133lbs per person in 1965 to 107lbs per person in 2016. But it is during this exact same time period that the obesity epidemic came into existence. So, perhaps red meat is marginally bad for you, but it is almost certainly not cause of all of the various afflictions that we think are caused in some way by our diets. [0]: https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/per-capita-consumption-of-poultry-and-livestock-1965-to-estimated-2012-in-pounds/ https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/st...
- windexh8er 8y ago
  Using a defensive position from the "white" meat interest is likely inaccurate. Red meat consumption is on the rise: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/have-a-meaty-new-year-americans-will-eat-record-amount-in-2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/have-a-me...
  - WillPostForFood 8y ago
    The article you linked is showing data for red meat + poultry, so it doesn’t support the statement that red meat consumption is on the rise.
    - windexh8er 8y ago
      If you assume red meat declined and white meat made up the difference, sure - but you'd be wrong. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-meat-domestic-data/livestock-meat-domestic-data/#Red%20meat%20and%20poultry%20production https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-meat-domest... Scroll down to the Beef pivot table. Increases year over year. Yes, red meat consumption is on the rise, along with others.
      - WillPostForFood 8y ago
        Ok, so your first link was bad because it included poultry, your second link is worse because it is total production, not per capita consumption (and some production is exported). You might be right, but still don’t have any data to support your claim.
        windexh8er 8y ago
        Domestic disappearance is a measure of how much beef is used on the domestic market. So unless the meat is being used for not consumption, then yes.
      - toasterlovin 8y ago
darkerside 8y ago
Changing and tracking diet long-term is nigh impossible. Has there been any work that you know of using economic incentives as a proxy? i.e. test group is granted coupons good for fruits and vegetables, while control group is granted fully discretionary coupons Obviously it's an imperfect experiment, but it seems like a pragmatic compromise.

toasterlovin 8y ago

> Building a double-blind clinical trial regarding changing people's diets over their lifetime and observing cardiovascular mortality is very hard. But it is the only diet research that can actually generate knowledge. The studies you cite are nice and all, but the first two are for studies that measured outcomes after 6-8 weeks. If you assume an average lifespan of 70 years, the longest study represented ~1/450th of a human lifespan. And, as you mention, they only measure what we think are valid indicators, not actual outcomes! And the third study may control for all of the things you mention, but it doesn't control for the other foods the study participants ate! Really the only piece of information that you need to know regarding red meat is that public health messaging for the last 50 years has been that people should limit red meat intake. And it was successful. According to this[0], red meat consumption has decreased from 133lbs per person in 1965 to 107lbs per person in 2016. But it is during this exact same time period that the obesity epidemic came into existence. So, perhaps red meat is marginally bad for you, but it is almost certainly not cause of all of the various afflictions that we think are caused in some way by our diets. [0]: https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/per-capita-consumption-of-poultry-and-livestock-1965-to-estimated-2012-in-pounds/ https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/st...

windexh8er 8y ago
Using a defensive position from the "white" meat interest is likely inaccurate. Red meat consumption is on the rise: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/have-a-meaty-new-year-americans-will-eat-record-amount-in-2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/have-a-me...
- WillPostForFood 8y ago
  The article you linked is showing data for red meat + poultry, so it doesn’t support the statement that red meat consumption is on the rise.
  - windexh8er 8y ago
    If you assume red meat declined and white meat made up the difference, sure - but you'd be wrong. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-meat-domestic-data/livestock-meat-domestic-data/#Red%20meat%20and%20poultry%20production https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-meat-domest... Scroll down to the Beef pivot table. Increases year over year. Yes, red meat consumption is on the rise, along with others.
    - WillPostForFood 8y ago
      Ok, so your first link was bad because it included poultry, your second link is worse because it is total production, not per capita consumption (and some production is exported). You might be right, but still don’t have any data to support your claim.
      - windexh8er 8y ago
        Domestic disappearance is a measure of how much beef is used on the domestic market. So unless the meat is being used for not consumption, then yes.
    - toasterlovin 8y ago

darkerside 8y ago

Changing and tracking diet long-term is nigh impossible. Has there been any work that you know of using economic incentives as a proxy? i.e. test group is granted coupons good for fruits and vegetables, while control group is granted fully discretionary coupons Obviously it's an imperfect experiment, but it seems like a pragmatic compromise.