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The important part of Musk's plan has already succeeded. He made electric cars cool and competitive. If Tesla folds tomorrow, there will still be a large market

The important part of Musk's plan has already succeeded. He made electric cars cool and competitive. If Tesla folds tomorrow, there will still be a large market for electric cars, and multiple other companies serving that. Depending on your needs, that has arguably already happened. While Tesla is still the "coolest" brand of car, there are better/cheaper electric cars from many non-Tesla companies already widely available today. That will not go away, even if Tesla implodes.

agumonkey 8y ago
If Tesla folds, how much will they be able to refund to customers ? I guess it's probably written on the deposit contract. Also, I wonder how many would go buy a competitor EV vehicle if their Model 3 doesn't happen. Or will they go ICE ?
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  > If Tesla folds, how much will they be able to refund to customers ? I guess it's probably written on the deposit contract. If it's a bankruptcy (and why would they told before that point?), whatever he deposit contract or general principles of law suggest for a going concern would be the upper limit of refunds, but the actual value would be dependent on what assets were left and what other claims were competing.
- DaiPlusPlus 8y ago
  I drive a Tesla MX. If Tesla folds and my car gets destroyed I’m tempted to get the Jaguar iPace - it’s the only other “skateboard” BEV currently available. I don’t understand why all the other BEVs go for the “batteries in the trunk”-design when the skateboard model is clearly far superior.
  - kbob 8y ago
    You have to redesign the whole car to make room for underfloor batteries. EVs based on existing platforms have to work within the platform's constraints. The Chevy Bolt is a clean-sheet design and is also a "skateboard".
Florin_Andrei 8y ago
Technically yes. The engineering idea has caught on. I'd like Tesla to stick around for a while, so that the other idea also catches on - you know, the "do the right thing for a change" philosophy.
djrogers 8y ago
> While Tesla is still the "coolest" brand of car, there are better/cheaper electric cars from many non-Tesla companies already widely available today. No, there are a very small handful of cheaper electric cars that may be subjectively better for some uses but worse for many others. Bolt, i3, Leaf - that's about it for mass-produced cars being bought in any volume, and the manufactureres are taking a bath on them. GM is reportedly losing ~$7,500 for each Bolt they sell, how long do you think that would go on if Tesla were to disappear overnight?
- yread 8y ago
  there is also Prius Prime, Clarity, Volt, Fusion, Ioniq, Outlander and more https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/ https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sa...
  - twblalock 8y ago
    And the German brands are getting in on electric in a big way.
  - djrogers 8y ago
    You’re conflating plug-in hybrids with pure EVs here, and even then most of the ones you lost won’t ship 1000 cars per month, let alone 5k. Those are peanuts. My point is, the needle is just barely starting to move toward EVs - it’s not pegged yet by any means.
- dingaling 8y ago
  At worst we would revert to hybrids as the dominant low-emission platform. Which is still much, much better than IC-only. Tesla dates back to 2003 by which point Toyota and Honda had been selling hybrids for six years. But given that Nissan and Renault had EVs on the market for as long as Teslas has, I wouldn't be too concerned about the post-Tesla EV market.
- twblalock 8y ago
  > GM is reportedly losing ~$7,500 for each Bolt they sell, how long do you think that would go on if Tesla were to disappear overnight? I think they would sell more Bolts because without the Model 3 there would be less competition in the Bolt's price range. Everything I've seen indicates to me that GM is very serious about this, and the German brands are also investing a lot -- the rise of electric cars is coinciding with the decline of diesel, and they are moving their money from one to the other.
cptskippy 8y ago
If Tesla folds then my concern is that it would just be used as justification for shutting down EV programs as not viable.

agumonkey 8y ago

If Tesla folds, how much will they be able to refund to customers ? I guess it's probably written on the deposit contract. Also, I wonder how many would go buy a competitor EV vehicle if their Model 3 doesn't happen. Or will they go ICE ?

dragonwriter 8y ago
> If Tesla folds, how much will they be able to refund to customers ? I guess it's probably written on the deposit contract. If it's a bankruptcy (and why would they told before that point?), whatever he deposit contract or general principles of law suggest for a going concern would be the upper limit of refunds, but the actual value would be dependent on what assets were left and what other claims were competing.
DaiPlusPlus 8y ago
I drive a Tesla MX. If Tesla folds and my car gets destroyed I’m tempted to get the Jaguar iPace - it’s the only other “skateboard” BEV currently available. I don’t understand why all the other BEVs go for the “batteries in the trunk”-design when the skateboard model is clearly far superior.
- kbob 8y ago
  You have to redesign the whole car to make room for underfloor batteries. EVs based on existing platforms have to work within the platform's constraints. The Chevy Bolt is a clean-sheet design and is also a "skateboard".

Florin_Andrei 8y ago

Technically yes. The engineering idea has caught on. I'd like Tesla to stick around for a while, so that the other idea also catches on - you know, the "do the right thing for a change" philosophy.

djrogers 8y ago

> While Tesla is still the "coolest" brand of car, there are better/cheaper electric cars from many non-Tesla companies already widely available today. No, there are a very small handful of cheaper electric cars that may be subjectively better for some uses but worse for many others. Bolt, i3, Leaf - that's about it for mass-produced cars being bought in any volume, and the manufactureres are taking a bath on them. GM is reportedly losing ~$7,500 for each Bolt they sell, how long do you think that would go on if Tesla were to disappear overnight?

yread 8y ago
there is also Prius Prime, Clarity, Volt, Fusion, Ioniq, Outlander and more https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/ https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sa...
- twblalock 8y ago
  And the German brands are getting in on electric in a big way.
- djrogers 8y ago
  You’re conflating plug-in hybrids with pure EVs here, and even then most of the ones you lost won’t ship 1000 cars per month, let alone 5k. Those are peanuts. My point is, the needle is just barely starting to move toward EVs - it’s not pegged yet by any means.
dingaling 8y ago
At worst we would revert to hybrids as the dominant low-emission platform. Which is still much, much better than IC-only. Tesla dates back to 2003 by which point Toyota and Honda had been selling hybrids for six years. But given that Nissan and Renault had EVs on the market for as long as Teslas has, I wouldn't be too concerned about the post-Tesla EV market.
twblalock 8y ago
> GM is reportedly losing ~$7,500 for each Bolt they sell, how long do you think that would go on if Tesla were to disappear overnight? I think they would sell more Bolts because without the Model 3 there would be less competition in the Bolt's price range. Everything I've seen indicates to me that GM is very serious about this, and the German brands are also investing a lot -- the rise of electric cars is coinciding with the decline of diesel, and they are moving their money from one to the other.

cptskippy 8y ago

If Tesla folds then my concern is that it would just be used as justification for shutting down EV programs as not viable.