4 ms·

Is this a reprint? I swear I've read this article before. I spent some time doing handicapping algorithms, if anyone is coming from other types of sports betti

Is this a reprint? I swear I've read this article before. I spent some time doing handicapping algorithms, if anyone is coming from other types of sports betting, the biggest challenge with predicting horse racing is the lack of fixed odds in a US-style parimutuel system. No matter how good your handicapping model is, you also have to build an additional model to predict how much of the pool will end up on particular horses. The price changes constantly and you have no ability to lock in a price or withdraw your bet if you made it at a certain price and the price changes. It wasn't uncommon to see a horse at 3/1 when the race starts which could seem like a good value and attract a well-placed bet, only to see a huge volume of money come in with milliseconds left that only hit the board after betting is closed to push the price down to 8/5 and make it a very very poor value. As a parimutuel bettor you are stuck with whatever the final price is.

joosters 8y ago
It becomes a vicious circle because the only way to be more certain about the odds is to place your bets as late as possible. Which means that fewer and fewer bets are struck earlier on, making the 'current' odds even more inaccurate. Which motivates people to wait even longer before betting...
- philipodonnell 8y ago
  Eventually it became almost an HFT-type thing like in the financial markets, the biggest advantage comes to the person able to put a bet in at the last possible nanosecond because they will have the most accurate prices. Which would be fine (or at least comparable), except the pool software is way slower at updating when new bets come in and the tracks take a 10-17% commission on every bet, which is a drag that is just really difficult to overcome.
hudibras 8y ago
>Is this a reprint? I swear I've read this article before. There was an article in Cigar Aficionado in 2003 that told the same story, but focusing on Alan Woods. https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-hundred-and-fifty-million-dollar-man-8366 https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-hundred-and-fift...
- philipodonnell 8y ago
  That was it! Thanks.

joosters 8y ago

It becomes a vicious circle because the only way to be more certain about the odds is to place your bets as late as possible. Which means that fewer and fewer bets are struck earlier on, making the 'current' odds even more inaccurate. Which motivates people to wait even longer before betting...

philipodonnell 8y ago
Eventually it became almost an HFT-type thing like in the financial markets, the biggest advantage comes to the person able to put a bet in at the last possible nanosecond because they will have the most accurate prices. Which would be fine (or at least comparable), except the pool software is way slower at updating when new bets come in and the tracks take a 10-17% commission on every bet, which is a drag that is just really difficult to overcome.

hudibras 8y ago

>Is this a reprint? I swear I've read this article before. There was an article in Cigar Aficionado in 2003 that told the same story, but focusing on Alan Woods. https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-hundred-and-fifty-million-dollar-man-8366 https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/the-hundred-and-fift...

philipodonnell 8y ago
That was it! Thanks.