4 ms·

> BTW, exercise kills as well. There are also known cases of heavy smokers/drinkers that made it to 100. Outliers, not in any way related to the general trend

by consp 9y ago

> BTW, exercise kills as well. There are also known cases of heavy smokers/drinkers that made it to 100. Outliers, not in any way related to the general trend and a bad argument in general.

taneq 9y ago
When we're talking about 1-in-17,600 chances to begin with, I think outliers are relevant.
- mfoy_ 9y ago
  I suppose you are more likely to die from exercise than from brain cancer... but I think it's also true that you're much more likely to die from lack of exercise than from exercising.
  - ams6110 9y ago
    You're going to die either way.
- consp 9y ago
  So increase the sample size and check if they are still outliers. Or find the chance distribution (or guess it for that matter) and bootstrap the results and see if it holds.
coldtea 9y ago
>Outliers, not in any way related to the general trend and a bad argument in general. Numbers please.
- Uehreka 9y ago
  The burden of proof rests on the person making the claim (the person claiming that some smokers/drinkers live to 100) rather than the person challenging it.
  - coldtea 9y ago
    Both are claims. One is just implicit. Some of the longest living people in the world (e.g. in the island of Icaria) drink and smoke like it's 1977 and they have always been. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/magazine/the-island-where-people-forget-to-die.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/magazine/the-island-where... Perhaps less stress and better lifestyle (quality of life) is the key to fewer cancers and such, as opposed to cutting smoking and drinking -- even with the increased burden on the lungs and such.
- consp 9y ago
  [1] https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://scholar.google.nl/&httpsredir=1&article=1345&context=sph_epidemiology_biostatistics_facpub https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=ht... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3953803/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3953803/ worst case, average case is more than an order of magnitude lower for cardiac related death: 2/100.000 for cardiac related death by excercise. 1278.9/100.000 normal 1879.4/100.000 obese (combined, so about 1.5 increase) So yes, outliers. Though the numbers are difficult to compare since the timespan of the research is different and the age groups could be off. But you asked for numbers.

by consp 9y ago

> BTW, exercise kills as well. There are also known cases of heavy smokers/drinkers that made it to 100. Outliers, not in any way related to the general trend and a bad argument in general.

taneq 9y ago

When we're talking about 1-in-17,600 chances to begin with, I think outliers are relevant.

mfoy_ 9y ago
I suppose you are more likely to die from exercise than from brain cancer... but I think it's also true that you're much more likely to die from lack of exercise than from exercising.
- ams6110 9y ago
  You're going to die either way.
consp 9y ago
So increase the sample size and check if they are still outliers. Or find the chance distribution (or guess it for that matter) and bootstrap the results and see if it holds.

coldtea 9y ago

>Outliers, not in any way related to the general trend and a bad argument in general. Numbers please.

Uehreka 9y ago
The burden of proof rests on the person making the claim (the person claiming that some smokers/drinkers live to 100) rather than the person challenging it.
- coldtea 9y ago
  Both are claims. One is just implicit. Some of the longest living people in the world (e.g. in the island of Icaria) drink and smoke like it's 1977 and they have always been. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/magazine/the-island-where-people-forget-to-die.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/magazine/the-island-where... Perhaps less stress and better lifestyle (quality of life) is the key to fewer cancers and such, as opposed to cutting smoking and drinking -- even with the increased burden on the lungs and such.
consp 9y ago
[1] https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://scholar.google.nl/&httpsredir=1&article=1345&context=sph_epidemiology_biostatistics_facpub https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=ht... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3953803/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3953803/ worst case, average case is more than an order of magnitude lower for cardiac related death: 2/100.000 for cardiac related death by excercise. 1278.9/100.000 normal 1879.4/100.000 obese (combined, so about 1.5 increase) So yes, outliers. Though the numbers are difficult to compare since the timespan of the research is different and the age groups could be off. But you asked for numbers.