5 ms·

90% of potential cell phone customers aren't looking for a smartphone, they don't currently have any sort of phone and guess who makes all the cheap waterproof

90% of potential cell phone customers aren't looking for a smartphone, they don't currently have any sort of phone and guess who makes all the cheap waterproof rugged phones. hint - the next billion customers don't live near Apple stores.

mikedouglas 16y ago
You'd be surprised. Worldwide mobile phone ownership is up to 5 billion[0]. Meanwhile, much of the first world has already transitioned to smartphones. If you wanted to jump on the cheap phone trend, you're ten years late. Whatever margins existed once are now gone. Nokia, the king of cheap phones, just fired their CEO and replaced him with a software guy from Microsoft. Apple, HP and Blackberry know exactly what market their fighting over. [0]: http://www.poder360.com/article_detail.php?id_article=4704 http://www.poder360.com/article_detail.php?id_article=4704
- blub 16y ago
  That doesn't mean that smartphones can't get better & cheaper, displacing some of the feature phones. Smartphones are ~26% of the entire market, I'll give you the source for that tomorrow.
  - blub 16y ago
    The source is Mobile Business Briefing.
- athom 16y ago
  Is that five billion individual owners? That's pretty impressive! Current estimates put the whole world population at just under 7 billion. http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html has it at about 6.8B, and a Google search on "current world population" turns up similar figures.
  - iuyhgtfvgbhjn 16y ago
    Last stats I saw showed that for W Europe the average user had owned >5 handsets.
sandGorgon 16y ago
You are wrong - the next billion (or two!) live next door to China, from where we are seeing the emergence of the first sub $200 (full, unlocked price) phones this month [http://www.priceindia.in/tv/spice-mi-300-price-%E2%80%93-cheap-android-mobile/ http://www.priceindia.in/tv/spice-mi-300-price-%E2%80%93-che...] That price figure is going to fall way, way lower once the Android supporting Mediatek chipsets enter full production [http://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/david-manners-semiconductor-blog/2010/05/mediateks-android-game-changer.html http://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/david-manners-semicon...] I predict $100 Mediatek-powered Android smartphones by summer 2011, flooding the Asian market.
- iuyhgtfvgbhjn 16y ago
  What about the Asian market more than 10km from the coastal cities? The same market that has one Nokia1100 per village in Africa aren't about to buy $100 smartphones for each of their kids.
  - sandGorgon 16y ago
    That particular market is snapping at Nokia's heels as well. While its sales have stagnated, new contenders have risen very fast in the ultra-low cost market [http://toostep.com/debate/two-year-old-micromax-becomes-india-s-3rd-largest-mobile-pho http://toostep.com/debate/two-year-old-micromax-becomes-indi...]
- blub 16y ago
  Good luck getting Android to run fast on a low-powered 100$ device.
  - joeyo 16y ago
    You might need luck if you assume that the industry is standing still and chips and batteries aren't getting cheaper and more powerful... Sub-$100 Android devices that "run fast" are inevitable. The only question is how soon.
rimantas 16y ago
hint: you don't make much money selling dumbphones, no matter market share.

mikedouglas 16y ago

You'd be surprised. Worldwide mobile phone ownership is up to 5 billion[0]. Meanwhile, much of the first world has already transitioned to smartphones. If you wanted to jump on the cheap phone trend, you're ten years late. Whatever margins existed once are now gone. Nokia, the king of cheap phones, just fired their CEO and replaced him with a software guy from Microsoft. Apple, HP and Blackberry know exactly what market their fighting over. [0]: http://www.poder360.com/article_detail.php?id_article=4704 http://www.poder360.com/article_detail.php?id_article=4704

blub 16y ago
That doesn't mean that smartphones can't get better & cheaper, displacing some of the feature phones. Smartphones are ~26% of the entire market, I'll give you the source for that tomorrow.
- blub 16y ago
  The source is Mobile Business Briefing.
athom 16y ago
Is that five billion individual owners? That's pretty impressive! Current estimates put the whole world population at just under 7 billion. http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html has it at about 6.8B, and a Google search on "current world population" turns up similar figures.
- iuyhgtfvgbhjn 16y ago
  Last stats I saw showed that for W Europe the average user had owned >5 handsets.

sandGorgon 16y ago

You are wrong - the next billion (or two!) live next door to China, from where we are seeing the emergence of the first sub $200 (full, unlocked price) phones this month [http://www.priceindia.in/tv/spice-mi-300-price-%E2%80%93-cheap-android-mobile/ http://www.priceindia.in/tv/spice-mi-300-price-%E2%80%93-che...] That price figure is going to fall way, way lower once the Android supporting Mediatek chipsets enter full production [http://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/david-manners-semiconductor-blog/2010/05/mediateks-android-game-changer.html http://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/david-manners-semicon...] I predict $100 Mediatek-powered Android smartphones by summer 2011, flooding the Asian market.

iuyhgtfvgbhjn 16y ago
What about the Asian market more than 10km from the coastal cities? The same market that has one Nokia1100 per village in Africa aren't about to buy $100 smartphones for each of their kids.
- sandGorgon 16y ago
  That particular market is snapping at Nokia's heels as well. While its sales have stagnated, new contenders have risen very fast in the ultra-low cost market [http://toostep.com/debate/two-year-old-micromax-becomes-india-s-3rd-largest-mobile-pho http://toostep.com/debate/two-year-old-micromax-becomes-indi...]
blub 16y ago
Good luck getting Android to run fast on a low-powered 100$ device.
- joeyo 16y ago
  You might need luck if you assume that the industry is standing still and chips and batteries aren't getting cheaper and more powerful... Sub-$100 Android devices that "run fast" are inevitable. The only question is how soon.

rimantas 16y ago

hint: you don't make much money selling dumbphones, no matter market share.