I think more likely is that the number of places that don't accept credit card of some sort will just continue to decline until it's largely just groups who can

I think more likely is that the number of places that don't accept credit card of some sort will just continue to decline until it's largely just groups who can't for some reason (low/no connectivity in their operating locations and/or difficulty accessing banking for example). In that environment there's not much that BTC adds to make it a better option than a credit card. Furthermore for most people even with the lightning network paying with BTC will be like a slightly slower prepaid debit card with less fraud protection and no ability to execute chargebacks because most people will pay out more to vendors than they'll receive in payments in (excepting cases where they're paid in BTC for some reason).