3 ms·
I don't mean to be dismissive of your general sentiment, I think we agree - I just think your example is a bit superlative. I think when viewing exponential tr
by cwkoss 9y ago
I don't mean to be dismissive of your general sentiment, I think we agree - I just think your example is a bit superlative.
I think when viewing exponential trends we need to consider the maximum 'carrying capacity' - typically when something is growing exponentially there is some latent 'available energy' that is being consumed to fuel the growth. Once consumption reaches parity with that energy production - growth may continue for a bit longer as 'excess reserves' are drained, but a trend reversal becomes inevitable.
> even the worst cities of 2018 will be unaffordable for the regular person.
In your city example, I'd argue that once a city is too expensive for any 'regular' person it will create a negative feedback loop: if unable to source enough labor to satisfy the service demands of the wealthy residents, those residents will begin leaving, reducing housing prices until the problem is at least somewhat mitigated.
- partycoder 9y agoExcept that in 2118 those wealthy residents may not need less wealthy residents because of automation.
- cwkoss 9y agoInteresting point. I'm skeptical, but certainly plausible.