2 ms·

This reminds me of the joke, "If our daughter keeps growing at this rate, she'll be 12 feet tall by age 18"

• partycoder 9y ago
  Sounds dumb but consider the evolution of world population over time: - 1950: 2.5 billion - 2000: 6 billion - 2018: 7.6 billion
  • cwkoss 9y ago
    I don't mean to be dismissive of your general sentiment, I think we agree - I just think your example is a bit superlative. I think when viewing exponential trends we need to consider the maximum 'carrying capacity' - typically when something is growing exponentially there is some latent 'available energy' that is being consumed to fuel the growth. Once consumption reaches parity with that energy production - growth may continue for a bit longer as 'excess reserves' are drained, but a trend reversal becomes inevitable. > even the worst cities of 2018 will be unaffordable for the regular person. In your city example, I'd argue that once a city is too expensive for any 'regular' person it will create a negative feedback loop: if unable to source enough labor to satisfy the service demands of the wealthy residents, those residents will begin leaving, reducing housing prices until the problem is at least somewhat mitigated.
    • partycoder 9y ago
      Except that in 2118 those wealthy residents may not need less wealthy residents because of automation.
      • cwkoss 9y ago
        Interesting point. I'm skeptical, but certainly plausible.