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I think the Apple future may not look good for a few reasons: 1. iPhones units sold stalled for 3 years in a row. This means the company need to seek every yea

I think the Apple future may not look good for a few reasons: 1. iPhones units sold stalled for 3 years in a row. This means the company need to seek every year some trick to earn more from each phone. It is not obvious if they'll be able to do for a long time. 2. Top Android devices are improving and Google Pixel 2 is really an incredible device that is making some iOS users switching. I've no data but my nerd friends are doing this a lot, and sometimes what you see in the nerd-sphere in a few years happens in the normal market. 3. They are struggling at competing in the space of the biggest ecosystems around phones. Cloud, computational photography, assistant.

diminish 9y ago
1. Maturing smartphone market. 4.No other growth drivers in sight after the failure of apple watch to become huge.
- threeseed 9y ago
  > No other growth drivers in sight after the failure of iwatch to become huge Apple Watch is the number one smart watch. It sold 8 millions unit last quarter (a rise of 10.3%) and represents about half of all smart watch sales. You would have to be deluded to think that it isn't anything other than a huge success.
  - diminish 9y ago
    Apple watch is successful in smart watch market. Smart watch market seems not to be a billions-unit market. That's what I mean.
    - mcphage 9y ago
      > Smart watch market seems not to be a billions-unit market. How many billions unit markets are there out there?
      - djrogers 9y ago
        One. There is one, and Apple makes almost all of the money in that market.
        mcphage 8y ago
        Two—don't forget about ballpoint pens.
- catach 9y ago
  I think it would be highly surprising if anyone invented a new product category at the scale of smartphones any time in the next few decades.
gressquel 9y ago
2. No, iOS people are not switching. They are staying but not buying newer models due to lack of innovation. Personally I would never switch to the cesspool named Android. Laggy, malware infested garbage
- craftyguy 9y ago
  > Laggy At least Google isn't making your phone laggy on purpose! (too soon?) Joking aside, there are a lot of sketchy, crappy Android devices, but there are also some decent ones (e.g. straight from Google). I suspect you've only been exposed to the crappy ones.
  - shyn3 9y ago
    Google has tried to release a phone before and they fail hard. The phone stops getting updates. If you want an android device with updates you have to get a BlackBerry. Android OS is horrible because it's always different. From release to release. From phone to phone. Everyone has their own little tidbit to add and makes it non uniform.
    - craftyguy 9y ago
      > The phone stops getting updates What? They provide major OS updates for 2 years, and security updates for 3 years. > Android OS is horrible because it's always different Are you referring to OEM modifications to Android? It's really hard to follow your rant.
      - djrogers 9y ago
        > They provide major OS updates for 2 years, In iOS land, 2 years is just getting started for OS updates - generally you get 5 years or so. That's one of the reasons so many iPhones get handed down and resold compared to Android devices.
        craftyguy 8y ago
take4 9y ago
The future looks good for their services revenue considering the current growth momentum and the 1.3 billion active Apple devices they can sell services to.
oflannabhra 9y ago
I agree that Apple has revenue challenges, and that the smartphone market has fully matured. However, I think there is a compelling future where the iPhone is the heart of a constellation of devices that we use everyday. Actually, that is not even the future, that is the present. The sheer power of the devices in our pockets is only just now being realized. In such a world, Apple is poised to have significant competitive advantages over others. That is, hardware and software integration. The next 5-10 years are going to be as exciting as the original smartphone revolution.
threeseed 9y ago
> I've no data but my nerd friends are doing this a lot, and sometimes what you see in the nerd-sphere in a few years happens in the normal market "Nerds" are the group most adept at switching back and forth so your anecdote really isn't useful in the slightest. And the numbers really don't show a systemic move back to Android. Also this group may be trend-setters because it does happen sometimes. But far more often it doesn't. Otherwise we would've seen everyone cancel Facebook, use Bitcoin for all payments and vote for Bernie Sanders. > They are struggling at competing in the space of the biggest ecosystems around phones. Cloud, computational photography, assistant. iMessages is a killer platform that only exists on iOS. iCloud simply just works for most people storing photos and backing up their devices. Portrait Mode has been a key marketing differentiator in the photography space. And whilst Siri isn't as good as Alexa/Google Assistant in some areas it is better in others.
- adpirz 9y ago
  iMessage is good...for now. I don't know about others, but more and more I notice little quirks and bugs, like messages being out of order, and syncing with macOS can be iffy. I really hope they work to improve it in the next year or two, because it's starting to wear on me a bit.
- emdowling 9y ago
  Just a slight point: iMessage is only relevant in Australia and US. In Europe, its WhatsApp, in China, WeChat, in Japan, LINE, etc. iMessage is not a competitive advantage in the markets where Apple can extract greatest growth going forward.
  - antirez 9y ago
    It's incredible this comment was downvoted. Is verifiable truth.
ksec 9y ago
I still think there are huge potential market for iPhone and Mac. Especially on the Mac, the problem is Apple is a little slower without Steve Jobs. I think the past two to three years they have been way too distracted with Apple Park, arguably the biggest Apple product since the iPhone. I think next two to three years will be important to show if they could really steer well without Steve. But I am already not liking their touchbar and quality issues on mac and FaceID, notch on iPhone X
clairity 9y ago
yup... 1. iphone is a mature product. 2. no onvious new groundbreaking product releases on the horizon (a watch is not it). 3. desktops are dying, and their replacements, the ipads, are stagnating. 4. intel screwed them with processor roadmaps intel had no hopes of meeting (cannonlake, anyone?) 5. no longer visionary on the future of computing (seem to be chasing all the flavors of the month lately). 6. services growth is a lagging indicator on the health of the ecosystem (or walled garden, if you prefer). 7. product and design mishaps all over (dongles, broken keyboards, homepod's a dud so far). 8. waning customer loyalty (customers are staying with apple not from excitement but from apathy in the space) 9. the low hanging fruit in ubiquitous, mobile and personal computing have been plucked (just the hard stuff remains). i'm not suggesting all is lost, but from my vantage point outside the company, it's concerning. airpods and the pencil seem most promising in the short term to me. airpods hold the promise of voice computing (if siri could get her act together), and the pencil promises to be the first techology to truly kill off paper, but neither of those hold any certainty.
- andrewjl 8y ago
  Desktops are dying while they realized highest Mac revenue ever this quarter? Not following the logic.
- BryantD 9y ago
  The Watch plus AirPods = the easier 2/3ds of a pervasive computing system. Audio plus haptic feedback is significant. Add a good set of AR glasses, which is the hard part, and you have something really interesting. Siri needs improving, though, no question.
  - clairity 9y ago
    yes, but pervasive AR is not coming any time soon. i think the next step is getting a computer to be contextually useful through an audio interface, rather than sight and touch. haptic is helpful but i don't see how it can encode enough useful yet intuitive info to be a standalone interface. the problem is not that apple is not working on this (since it is). it's just that it's not obvious that apple has a clear vision of how to get to the future. they are chasing all the shiny things at once, throwing them all at the wall to see which one(s) sticks. (to be clear, this is not an endorsement of google and android btw. they're even worse in this regard, but they're taking more of a microsoft strategy of being all things to all people anyway.)
megablast 9y ago
You are joking, right? 1. They have grown since last 2nd quarter, and are still pulling in ridiculous profits. 2. No one is buying the Pixel, they will probably sell 5 million this year if lucky. Less than 1/10 what Apple sold in this quarter alone. The S9 has also been struggling. 3. Cloud has grown.
Spooky23 9y ago
No way. They don’t tell you the longevity of devices. From what I see, iPhones are cutting off the oxygen from android. My kids school is what use as a reference... literally 80/20 iPhone to non iPhone. The SE and used phones make it more attractive than throwaway androids that are un-upgradable. Enterprises, same thing. I talk to a few companies/gov with an aggregate total of probably 200k phones. 95% iPhone. Google is amazing at services. But the OEM bullshit, carrier concessions are hurting them. My guess is that they will make a Chrome phone to fix that. Google Photos alone is a killer app when they do that.
vesak 9y ago
2. Here's one nerd who made the exact opposite jump from Android to iOS in 2017-2018, also from misc Linux machines to Apple. But personal anecdotes don't really matter, do they? After half a year of this, I'm quite happy. The competition will have to make some miracles to make me want to change back.

diminish 9y ago

1. Maturing smartphone market. 4.No other growth drivers in sight after the failure of apple watch to become huge.

threeseed 9y ago
> No other growth drivers in sight after the failure of iwatch to become huge Apple Watch is the number one smart watch. It sold 8 millions unit last quarter (a rise of 10.3%) and represents about half of all smart watch sales. You would have to be deluded to think that it isn't anything other than a huge success.
- diminish 9y ago
  Apple watch is successful in smart watch market. Smart watch market seems not to be a billions-unit market. That's what I mean.
  - mcphage 9y ago
    > Smart watch market seems not to be a billions-unit market. How many billions unit markets are there out there?
    - djrogers 9y ago
      One. There is one, and Apple makes almost all of the money in that market.
      - mcphage 8y ago
        Two—don't forget about ballpoint pens.
catach 9y ago
I think it would be highly surprising if anyone invented a new product category at the scale of smartphones any time in the next few decades.

gressquel 9y ago

2. No, iOS people are not switching. They are staying but not buying newer models due to lack of innovation. Personally I would never switch to the cesspool named Android. Laggy, malware infested garbage

craftyguy 9y ago
> Laggy At least Google isn't making your phone laggy on purpose! (too soon?) Joking aside, there are a lot of sketchy, crappy Android devices, but there are also some decent ones (e.g. straight from Google). I suspect you've only been exposed to the crappy ones.
- shyn3 9y ago
  Google has tried to release a phone before and they fail hard. The phone stops getting updates. If you want an android device with updates you have to get a BlackBerry. Android OS is horrible because it's always different. From release to release. From phone to phone. Everyone has their own little tidbit to add and makes it non uniform.
  - craftyguy 9y ago
    > The phone stops getting updates What? They provide major OS updates for 2 years, and security updates for 3 years. > Android OS is horrible because it's always different Are you referring to OEM modifications to Android? It's really hard to follow your rant.
    - djrogers 9y ago
      > They provide major OS updates for 2 years, In iOS land, 2 years is just getting started for OS updates - generally you get 5 years or so. That's one of the reasons so many iPhones get handed down and resold compared to Android devices.
      - craftyguy 8y ago

take4 9y ago

The future looks good for their services revenue considering the current growth momentum and the 1.3 billion active Apple devices they can sell services to.

oflannabhra 9y ago

I agree that Apple has revenue challenges, and that the smartphone market has fully matured. However, I think there is a compelling future where the iPhone is the heart of a constellation of devices that we use everyday. Actually, that is not even the future, that is the present. The sheer power of the devices in our pockets is only just now being realized. In such a world, Apple is poised to have significant competitive advantages over others. That is, hardware and software integration. The next 5-10 years are going to be as exciting as the original smartphone revolution.

threeseed 9y ago

> I've no data but my nerd friends are doing this a lot, and sometimes what you see in the nerd-sphere in a few years happens in the normal market "Nerds" are the group most adept at switching back and forth so your anecdote really isn't useful in the slightest. And the numbers really don't show a systemic move back to Android. Also this group may be trend-setters because it does happen sometimes. But far more often it doesn't. Otherwise we would've seen everyone cancel Facebook, use Bitcoin for all payments and vote for Bernie Sanders. > They are struggling at competing in the space of the biggest ecosystems around phones. Cloud, computational photography, assistant. iMessages is a killer platform that only exists on iOS. iCloud simply just works for most people storing photos and backing up their devices. Portrait Mode has been a key marketing differentiator in the photography space. And whilst Siri isn't as good as Alexa/Google Assistant in some areas it is better in others.

adpirz 9y ago
iMessage is good...for now. I don't know about others, but more and more I notice little quirks and bugs, like messages being out of order, and syncing with macOS can be iffy. I really hope they work to improve it in the next year or two, because it's starting to wear on me a bit.
emdowling 9y ago
Just a slight point: iMessage is only relevant in Australia and US. In Europe, its WhatsApp, in China, WeChat, in Japan, LINE, etc. iMessage is not a competitive advantage in the markets where Apple can extract greatest growth going forward.
- antirez 9y ago
  It's incredible this comment was downvoted. Is verifiable truth.

ksec 9y ago

I still think there are huge potential market for iPhone and Mac. Especially on the Mac, the problem is Apple is a little slower without Steve Jobs. I think the past two to three years they have been way too distracted with Apple Park, arguably the biggest Apple product since the iPhone. I think next two to three years will be important to show if they could really steer well without Steve. But I am already not liking their touchbar and quality issues on mac and FaceID, notch on iPhone X

clairity 9y ago

yup... 1. iphone is a mature product. 2. no onvious new groundbreaking product releases on the horizon (a watch is not it). 3. desktops are dying, and their replacements, the ipads, are stagnating. 4. intel screwed them with processor roadmaps intel had no hopes of meeting (cannonlake, anyone?) 5. no longer visionary on the future of computing (seem to be chasing all the flavors of the month lately). 6. services growth is a lagging indicator on the health of the ecosystem (or walled garden, if you prefer). 7. product and design mishaps all over (dongles, broken keyboards, homepod's a dud so far). 8. waning customer loyalty (customers are staying with apple not from excitement but from apathy in the space) 9. the low hanging fruit in ubiquitous, mobile and personal computing have been plucked (just the hard stuff remains). i'm not suggesting all is lost, but from my vantage point outside the company, it's concerning. airpods and the pencil seem most promising in the short term to me. airpods hold the promise of voice computing (if siri could get her act together), and the pencil promises to be the first techology to truly kill off paper, but neither of those hold any certainty.

andrewjl 8y ago
Desktops are dying while they realized highest Mac revenue ever this quarter? Not following the logic.
BryantD 9y ago
The Watch plus AirPods = the easier 2/3ds of a pervasive computing system. Audio plus haptic feedback is significant. Add a good set of AR glasses, which is the hard part, and you have something really interesting. Siri needs improving, though, no question.
- clairity 9y ago
  yes, but pervasive AR is not coming any time soon. i think the next step is getting a computer to be contextually useful through an audio interface, rather than sight and touch. haptic is helpful but i don't see how it can encode enough useful yet intuitive info to be a standalone interface. the problem is not that apple is not working on this (since it is). it's just that it's not obvious that apple has a clear vision of how to get to the future. they are chasing all the shiny things at once, throwing them all at the wall to see which one(s) sticks. (to be clear, this is not an endorsement of google and android btw. they're even worse in this regard, but they're taking more of a microsoft strategy of being all things to all people anyway.)

megablast 9y ago

You are joking, right? 1. They have grown since last 2nd quarter, and are still pulling in ridiculous profits. 2. No one is buying the Pixel, they will probably sell 5 million this year if lucky. Less than 1/10 what Apple sold in this quarter alone. The S9 has also been struggling. 3. Cloud has grown.

Spooky23 9y ago

No way. They don’t tell you the longevity of devices. From what I see, iPhones are cutting off the oxygen from android. My kids school is what use as a reference... literally 80/20 iPhone to non iPhone. The SE and used phones make it more attractive than throwaway androids that are un-upgradable. Enterprises, same thing. I talk to a few companies/gov with an aggregate total of probably 200k phones. 95% iPhone. Google is amazing at services. But the OEM bullshit, carrier concessions are hurting them. My guess is that they will make a Chrome phone to fix that. Google Photos alone is a killer app when they do that.

vesak 9y ago

2. Here's one nerd who made the exact opposite jump from Android to iOS in 2017-2018, also from misc Linux machines to Apple. But personal anecdotes don't really matter, do they? After half a year of this, I'm quite happy. The competition will have to make some miracles to make me want to change back.