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One thing that is consistently amazing is how accurate Apple's guidance is. Horace Dediu: "How accurate is Apple’s Guidance? Over the last 23 quarters the aver
by oflannabhra 8y ago
One thing that is consistently amazing is how accurate Apple's guidance is.
Horace Dediu: "How accurate is Apple’s Guidance? Over the last 23 quarters the average error has been 2.63% (measuring from top of guidance range)." [0]
[0] - https://twitter.com/asymco/status/991345104848867333 https://twitter.com/asymco/status/991345104848867333
- khc 8y agoIs that surprising? What's the typical error margin?
- diminish 8y agoImho this isn't chance but Apple management has several tools to realize it. My guesses are specific operator campaigns, pricing, supply. What's surprising is the absence of extreme overshoot. I think smartphone market has matured enough.
- scarface74 8y agoThey are also already a month into the next quarter by the time they announce it....
- samfisher83 8y agoThey already probably have a month worth of data. They can extrapolate those numbers out. Also they have lots of data on what the trends are.
- rdlecler1 8y agoThis must be a function of large numbers such that the sample is close to the expected value.
- brisance 8y agoWhat’s even more amazing is that these so-called journalists like Mark Gurman still have a job at Bloomberg. His piece yesterday was a hatchet job, with no numbers or even anything resembling expected sales figures. [1] [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/apple-results-to-show-iphone-x-problem-and-cook-s-plan-to-fix-it https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/apple-res...
- tinus_hn 8y agoWho cares? As long as people click on the articles Bloomberg will be happy.