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What is far more likely is that people will simply leave the Bay Area, and demand will fall. It's far easier to create tech clusters in other cities than it is

What is far more likely is that people will simply leave the Bay Area, and demand will fall. It's far easier to create tech clusters in other cities than it is to convince a bunch of NIMBY boomers that other people need places to live, too.

TuringNYC 8y ago
>> people will simply leave the Bay Area, and demand will fall Short of a bubble popping, it usually doesnt work like a cusp, but rather, things remain on the edge of extremity (i.e.: dual income couple plowing 70% of income into insane mortgage.)
Reedx 8y ago
People are leaving actually, to the point that U-Haul is having a hard time keeping up with demand. The trucks aren't coming back here. "Rent a moving truck from Las Vegas to San Jose and you'll pay about $100. In the opposite direction, the same truck will cost you 16 times that, or nearly $2,000." https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/U-Haul-San-Francisco-Bay-Area-prices-shortage-12617855.php https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/U-Hau...
s73v3r_ 8y ago
"It's far easier to create tech clusters in other cities" Wouldn't it have been done by now if that were the case? Yet SF is still the Mecca for the tech and startup scenes.
- redthrowaway 8y ago
  Network effects are powerful. But beyond the original secondary tech centres of Seattle, Boston, and NYC, there are now thriving tech scenes in all sorts of smaller markets--Portland, Denver, Austin, etc. It's easy to see every major tech company having a base in SFBA for the foreseeable future, but it's also easy to see being a working programmer living in one of those smaller markets and actually being a homeowner being a much bigger thing going forward.
  - s73v3r_ 8y ago
    Given how hostile most of those companies have been to remote work, I'm not too optimistic. I hope to be wrong, though. And while those other cities do have some tech scene, it's still nowhere near that of SV, and that's still the first choice of most developers.

TuringNYC 8y ago

>> people will simply leave the Bay Area, and demand will fall Short of a bubble popping, it usually doesnt work like a cusp, but rather, things remain on the edge of extremity (i.e.: dual income couple plowing 70% of income into insane mortgage.)

Reedx 8y ago

People are leaving actually, to the point that U-Haul is having a hard time keeping up with demand. The trucks aren't coming back here. "Rent a moving truck from Las Vegas to San Jose and you'll pay about $100. In the opposite direction, the same truck will cost you 16 times that, or nearly $2,000." https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/U-Haul-San-Francisco-Bay-Area-prices-shortage-12617855.php https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/U-Hau...

s73v3r_ 8y ago

"It's far easier to create tech clusters in other cities" Wouldn't it have been done by now if that were the case? Yet SF is still the Mecca for the tech and startup scenes.

redthrowaway 8y ago
Network effects are powerful. But beyond the original secondary tech centres of Seattle, Boston, and NYC, there are now thriving tech scenes in all sorts of smaller markets--Portland, Denver, Austin, etc. It's easy to see every major tech company having a base in SFBA for the foreseeable future, but it's also easy to see being a working programmer living in one of those smaller markets and actually being a homeowner being a much bigger thing going forward.
- s73v3r_ 8y ago
  Given how hostile most of those companies have been to remote work, I'm not too optimistic. I hope to be wrong, though. And while those other cities do have some tech scene, it's still nowhere near that of SV, and that's still the first choice of most developers.