7 ms·

The 727 that Vanished

36 points by mjfern 16y ago

ryanwaggoner 16y ago
If a non-pilot and a private pilot took off in a 727 (that had recently been "repaired") from Angola and were last seen flying over the ocean, it's not terribly difficult to understand exactly what happened: they crashed into the ocean.
- prosa 16y ago
  My thoughts exactly. I actually wasted a few minutes reading the story thinking there must be more nuance. The mention of "maneuvering erratically" and taking off without headlights seems to further advance the simplest explanation... but everyone loves a good conspiracy theory.
  - pak 16y ago
    Doesn't an airliner crashing into the ocean leave some trace? I would think there would be an oil slick, and some floating debris. There's a lot of stuff in an airplane that floats. Surely these things would be spotted by air or satellite.
    - jacquesm 16y ago
      remember that air France jet that crashed in to the ocean a while ago and how much trouble they had to go through to even just find the thing in spite of having a pretty good idea where it went down ? Now imagine the same thing without a good idea of where it went down. The ocean is a pretty big place. Maybe some debris will wash up on a shore somewhere, but that might very well be half the world away from the crash site.
      - InclinedPlane 16y ago
        Depending on where the crash is that floating debris may never end up ashore. Instead, it may end up shredded into pieces and floating just under the surface of the water in a mid-ocean gyre along with a crap-ton of other debris from who-knows-where. At that point it's like searching for a needle in a field full of haystacks that have been picked up by a tornado.
        bombs 16y ago
        I'd say it's like searching in a needle in a needle stack. The amount of unidentifiable junk that ends up in ocean gyres from planes, boats and cars (!) is astounding.
    - InclinedPlane 16y ago
      Yep, it'll leave a trace. A huge trace probably several hundred square meters in size ... in a several million square kilometer area of ocean. Most of the debris would be on the ocean floor, the remainder would stay on the surface for a while before being dispersed and displaced by ocean currents. All of these bits and pieces are too small to be picked up by satellite unless you have a satellite already looking at the exact area where it is (very unlikely), and even then it may not be possible to distinguish it from any other random bit of debris in the ocean. Think about a comparable problem, finding shipwrecks on the ocean floor. The ocean floor is vast, the shipwreck is tiny, modern techniques rely on looking for the debris trail to focus the search for the shipwreck itself. But in these cases the advantage of the shipwreck remaining in one place and relatively unmodified are completely lost for debris on the surface, and there is far less of it. The oceans are big, the floating bits of a 727 are small.
- gaius 16y ago
  That's not really the mystery, tho': rather why they suddenly decided to go ahead with that plan, given that it was obviously reckless. And if anyone else was onboard. As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines.
  - pmjordan 16y ago
    As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines. They tend to be in the middle of the desert or other rough terrain, and the distances are enormous. In many cases there aren't any public roads they can (reliably) use for heavy freight, and maintaining their own would be costly. Staff are flown in anyway, so they already maintain regularly used airfields. (my dad used to be an engineer working at various African diamond mines, and my first cousin once removed still consults for them after retiring)
    - electromagnetic 16y ago
      This isn't an Africa-only thing either. The Canadian diamond mines routinely fly staff in and out, and on occasion materials too. However, the Canadian mines have the somewhat luxury of being accessible by ice roads for a portion of the year. Desert doesn't suddenly become hard enough to support a tractor-trailer, but water does.
  - arethuza 16y ago
    "As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines." You might be interested to know that in WW2 American B29s operated from Chinese bases where they were supplied by flying supplies (including fuel) over the Himalayas from India. I think it was something like seven supply flights for each combat mission.
prosa 16y ago
Come to think of it, the survivors are probably stuck on an island, lost in time. Someday they will be saved, and will return to society. This will seem like a cherished moment, but they will soon come to realize that they truly belong back on the island. When they return, it will come to light that they were really dead all along. We will all proceed to watch the next soapy primetime drama.
iuguy 16y ago
Maybe the plane was... L O S T (sorry, couldn't resist)

36 points by mjfern 16y ago

If a non-pilot and a private pilot took off in a 727 (that had recently been "repaired") from Angola and were last seen flying over the ocean, it's not terribly difficult to understand exactly what happened: they crashed into the ocean.

prosa 16y ago
My thoughts exactly. I actually wasted a few minutes reading the story thinking there must be more nuance. The mention of "maneuvering erratically" and taking off without headlights seems to further advance the simplest explanation... but everyone loves a good conspiracy theory.
- pak 16y ago
  Doesn't an airliner crashing into the ocean leave some trace? I would think there would be an oil slick, and some floating debris. There's a lot of stuff in an airplane that floats. Surely these things would be spotted by air or satellite.
  - jacquesm 16y ago
    remember that air France jet that crashed in to the ocean a while ago and how much trouble they had to go through to even just find the thing in spite of having a pretty good idea where it went down ? Now imagine the same thing without a good idea of where it went down. The ocean is a pretty big place. Maybe some debris will wash up on a shore somewhere, but that might very well be half the world away from the crash site.
    - InclinedPlane 16y ago
      Depending on where the crash is that floating debris may never end up ashore. Instead, it may end up shredded into pieces and floating just under the surface of the water in a mid-ocean gyre along with a crap-ton of other debris from who-knows-where. At that point it's like searching for a needle in a field full of haystacks that have been picked up by a tornado.
      - bombs 16y ago
        I'd say it's like searching in a needle in a needle stack. The amount of unidentifiable junk that ends up in ocean gyres from planes, boats and cars (!) is astounding.
  - InclinedPlane 16y ago
    Yep, it'll leave a trace. A huge trace probably several hundred square meters in size ... in a several million square kilometer area of ocean. Most of the debris would be on the ocean floor, the remainder would stay on the surface for a while before being dispersed and displaced by ocean currents. All of these bits and pieces are too small to be picked up by satellite unless you have a satellite already looking at the exact area where it is (very unlikely), and even then it may not be possible to distinguish it from any other random bit of debris in the ocean. Think about a comparable problem, finding shipwrecks on the ocean floor. The ocean floor is vast, the shipwreck is tiny, modern techniques rely on looking for the debris trail to focus the search for the shipwreck itself. But in these cases the advantage of the shipwreck remaining in one place and relatively unmodified are completely lost for debris on the surface, and there is far less of it. The oceans are big, the floating bits of a 727 are small.
gaius 16y ago
That's not really the mystery, tho': rather why they suddenly decided to go ahead with that plan, given that it was obviously reckless. And if anyone else was onboard. As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines.
- pmjordan 16y ago
  As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines. They tend to be in the middle of the desert or other rough terrain, and the distances are enormous. In many cases there aren't any public roads they can (reliably) use for heavy freight, and maintaining their own would be costly. Staff are flown in anyway, so they already maintain regularly used airfields. (my dad used to be an engineer working at various African diamond mines, and my first cousin once removed still consults for them after retiring)
  - electromagnetic 16y ago
    This isn't an Africa-only thing either. The Canadian diamond mines routinely fly staff in and out, and on occasion materials too. However, the Canadian mines have the somewhat luxury of being accessible by ice roads for a portion of the year. Desert doesn't suddenly become hard enough to support a tractor-trailer, but water does.
- arethuza 16y ago
  "As an aside, it's fascinating that the economics of diamond mining are such that you fly fuel to the mines." You might be interested to know that in WW2 American B29s operated from Chinese bases where they were supplied by flying supplies (including fuel) over the Himalayas from India. I think it was something like seven supply flights for each combat mission.

prosa 16y ago

Come to think of it, the survivors are probably stuck on an island, lost in time. Someday they will be saved, and will return to society. This will seem like a cherished moment, but they will soon come to realize that they truly belong back on the island. When they return, it will come to light that they were really dead all along. We will all proceed to watch the next soapy primetime drama.

iuguy 16y ago

Maybe the plane was... L O S T (sorry, couldn't resist)