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I'm not sure this is proving anything except that by developing an algorithm that filters out some predictions you can improve upon those predictions. And that

I'm not sure this is proving anything except that by developing an algorithm that filters out some predictions you can improve upon those predictions. And that is probably quite obvious given there are some users (presumably) on the site who are just trolling and fairly easy to identify and filter out. Unfortunately, I can't see the data on the Brier score of individuals.

eurg 9y ago
Of course it does not prove anything, but identifying "wisdom of the crowds" only and exactly with "group average" isn't particularly considerate. While public mass media thrives on simplifications, I had hoped that we could iterate on the basic premise.