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The North isn't going to disarm. Nuclear weapons are their one deterrent against the US, who have shown in the past that they are willing to invade and destroy
by grrmx1 8y ago
The North isn't going to disarm. Nuclear weapons are their one deterrent against the US, who have shown in the past that they are willing to invade and destroy regimes that went through the trouble of disarming (Iraq, Lybia). So why would he disarm now, if he knows - for a fact - that ten years from now his goodwill will count for nothing with the next, presumably hostile, American administration?
My guess is that in the next few months we will see none of the vague promises made today come to life. This will then be followed by retrenchment, with both sides blaming the other. I can already see Trump furiously blasting tweets about the treacherous North. Meanwhile, Kim will go on doing what his family has been doing for generations - play regional and global powers off each other in order to get small concessions from each of them, while keeping his personal dynasty intact.
I hope it's not so, but logic suggests it is. The goal of every state is to survive. As long as the US poses a legitimate threat to the North, they are not going to willingly give up their one effective deterrent.
- josefresco 8y agoIraq didn't "voluntarily disarm"
- TheForumTroll 8y agoThey couldn't disarm of nukes they didn't have.
- grrmx1 8y agoI was referring to the arms inspections that were taking place through the 90s. Iraq had some quantity of chemical and biological WMDs that the Americans were eager to destroy. Iraq let them. And then still got invaded. I was referring to this, when I said they disarmed.
- grrmx1 8y agoIraq was subject to fairly intrusive US-lobbied inspection for much of the 1990s [1]. Inspectors were looking for WMDs (chemical and biological in that case), and did in fact find and destroy (at least some of) them. Iraq went through the trouble of accommodating the US. That didn't help them in 2003. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Special_Commission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Special_Commiss...