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Theory: Xi put massive pressure on North Korea to sue for peace during the armored train trip Kim made to China because he doesn't want Trump/Pentagon using it

Theory: Xi put massive pressure on North Korea to sue for peace during the armored train trip Kim made to China because he doesn't want Trump/Pentagon using it as an excuse for a more immediate military buildup in the region and the possible nuclearization of SK and Japan in response. Japan was already starting to flex more. Xi probably threatened to cut them off and even invade NK if he didn't cool it, they were becoming too much of a liability. I think China thinks Washington is crazy enough now for a pre-emtive strike (Madman theory?), and that could drag China into a war they are not ready for. The US still struck Syria despite Russian threats, its not unfeasible to think the same applies to NK. China's long term goal is to take back Taiwan, secure their back yard and ultimately become the hub of Eurasian continent, but they need to buy a couple more decades time, they are not yet ready for a true face off. That said however, its also possible this has no effect really, China's posturing itself is enough of a reason for a buildup and Washington can still spin it this way. Like I said, buys more time but probably doesn't negate the inevitable face off. In the end, NK will be authoritarian "modern" like China is "modern". I can't imagine Kim giving up that much power, just shifting it to a better model that keeps him in the loop. This was probably the "out" Xi gave him during his visit. China may even turn this form of authoritarianism into a commodity they can sell to other dictators. "Look at NK then and now! See what our political system / AI facial recognition technology can do for you and your people? Just take a low interest loan from us and we will build the system for you and show you how to use it. You can be advanced just like China AND be in power forever!". It's truly naive to think there is anything less than geo-political calculus here. If you think this is a momentous occasion, you're fooling yourself with rose colored glasses. That being said, I'd love to hear some alternative theories. Shoot me down. Pop my bubble.

wilonth 8y ago
I mean, the whole world would be cheering if NK would do that. We totally don't need to care that NK is an authoritarian regime if it's being nice and doing a good job for its citizen and the world. Whatever peaceful version of NK we'd get would be light years better than this looming WW3 threat we've been worrying about this whole decade.
hangonhn 8y ago
I think this move plays into China's hands for sure, especially if we use the pretext of "peace" to leave the peninsula. China's influence will be greatly magnified as they would be the only major player left on the peninsula guaranteeing peace there. However, I am wary of giving China too much credit here because the amount of leverage China has over Kim is limited. That Kim was bold enough to assassinate his half brother who was protected by the Chinese tells you a lot. Also, Korea historically and continues to view China with a wary eye. Kim also desires independence from China. He is now dealing with China from a position of strength after defying them so long with his nuclear weapons development and succeeding.
dpweb 8y ago
China HAD to have played a major part in this. They dont’t need the US playing a more active military role in the region. Have to wonder if/what Trump’s actions has contributed?
pm90 8y ago
Still better than nukes landing in SF/Seattle. Or shelling down Seoul to bits in 30 mins after the first shots are fired. I think your theory is plausible. I fail to see how a modern authoritarian regime could be exported though. Democracies happen because the constituent people are committed to certain ideas (and a constitution usually); its not about economics (at least not to a great extent).
- monocasa 8y ago
  > I fail to see how a modern authoritarian regime could be exported though The US is already in the game with the internet monitoring and censorship systems we sell to authoritarian regimes. China and the DPRK would just be stepping up to the plate that already exists.
drzaiusapelord 8y ago
Its obvious NK is a client state of China and Xi clearly wanted to solve his problem child on his doorstep who is bringing the US/Japan to closer China's shores. Its also a signature achievement for him and will help cement him as a 'great' leader, not just a savvy and bloodthirsty political player.

wilonth 8y ago

I mean, the whole world would be cheering if NK would do that. We totally don't need to care that NK is an authoritarian regime if it's being nice and doing a good job for its citizen and the world. Whatever peaceful version of NK we'd get would be light years better than this looming WW3 threat we've been worrying about this whole decade.

hangonhn 8y ago

I think this move plays into China's hands for sure, especially if we use the pretext of "peace" to leave the peninsula. China's influence will be greatly magnified as they would be the only major player left on the peninsula guaranteeing peace there. However, I am wary of giving China too much credit here because the amount of leverage China has over Kim is limited. That Kim was bold enough to assassinate his half brother who was protected by the Chinese tells you a lot. Also, Korea historically and continues to view China with a wary eye. Kim also desires independence from China. He is now dealing with China from a position of strength after defying them so long with his nuclear weapons development and succeeding.

dpweb 8y ago

China HAD to have played a major part in this. They dont’t need the US playing a more active military role in the region. Have to wonder if/what Trump’s actions has contributed?

pm90 8y ago

Still better than nukes landing in SF/Seattle. Or shelling down Seoul to bits in 30 mins after the first shots are fired. I think your theory is plausible. I fail to see how a modern authoritarian regime could be exported though. Democracies happen because the constituent people are committed to certain ideas (and a constitution usually); its not about economics (at least not to a great extent).

monocasa 8y ago
> I fail to see how a modern authoritarian regime could be exported though The US is already in the game with the internet monitoring and censorship systems we sell to authoritarian regimes. China and the DPRK would just be stepping up to the plate that already exists.

drzaiusapelord 8y ago

Its obvious NK is a client state of China and Xi clearly wanted to solve his problem child on his doorstep who is bringing the US/Japan to closer China's shores. Its also a signature achievement for him and will help cement him as a 'great' leader, not just a savvy and bloodthirsty political player.