8 ms·

Am I the only one who thinks this is happening mainly because of political shifts in South Korea? 2013-2017 the South Korean president was Park Geun-hye of the

Am I the only one who thinks this is happening mainly because of political shifts in South Korea? 2013-2017 the South Korean president was Park Geun-hye of the conservative Saenuri Party. They generally have a hostile attitude towards North Korea. In late 2016 she had a major scandal, was impeached, and Moon Jae-in of the more liberal Democratic Party won. They are generally more willing no talk to the North. He is the person meeting Kim today.

opmac 8y ago
Yes, you're literally the only one.
murph-almighty 8y ago
Unrelated, but the scandal that got Park kicked out was wild. Never thought someone trying to force their daughter into a college would lead to the president of SK resigning.
- girvo 8y ago
  South Korean politic scandals are fascinating to watch from the outside... must suck to have to deal with if you lived there though. I spent six months in Busan, not long enough for any of that myself and I was too young to have given a damn about politics anyway
vivekd 8y ago
I would doubt this because from 1998 to 2008 Korea has had liberal presidents who had a policy of engagement towards North Korea and we didn't get peace in that time. While getting rid of Park Geun-Hye certainly made this easier - I think this has more to do with Kim Jong Un and also the warm reception N. Korea got at the recent winter Olympics in South Korea. That said I would be cautious how far this would go. I suspect a lot of N. Koreas militaristic acts and statements over the years is not because of any actual desire but war, but just posturing to help in negotiations over tariffs and aid. I am also going to take the unpopular opinion and say that Trump does deserve some credit. Under many past Presidents, the N. Korean government knew America would never use military force and acted accordingly. Under Trump, they have good reason to be concerned about the possibility of military force and are taking a more cautious and reconciliatory approach. I think the North Koreans are well aware that militaristic posturing won't get them very far with Trump the way it did with past presidents.
- uurrnn 8y ago
  Kim Jong-un wasn't the leader of NK from 98-08 as well, fwiw.
- deusofnull 8y ago
  Reunification efforts in the late 1990s and early 2000s were complicated by the shift in US Policy from the Clinton to Bush Admin. Clinton's admin wanted to support the so called Sunshine Policy, which favored moving towards reunification. For the US's part, they agreed to not re apply new sanctions on the North as long as the North continued to operate within the parameters of their Sunshine Policy negotiated with the South. That was what was happening, but then Bush came into office and this policy changed. New sanctions were put upon DPRK and they would eventually be included in the Bush Admin's "Axis of Evil" (Iran, Iraq, and North Korea). This caused the North to go back on its agreements and the Sunshine Policy as a whole, and did also align with more conservative governments in South Korea. All that said, I was smiling so big last night seeing the two leaders shaking hands, smiling themselves. A reunification of the 2 Koreas would be an absolute blessing upon the world. Many people in the North and South long to be reunited. Not to mention the ease of so many tensions in SE Asia that would come from 1 Korea.
  - ConceptJunkie 8y ago
    Not to mention the fact that this can lead to easing the tremendous suffering of the people of North Korea. South Korea is an exciting country that is accomplishing some really cool stuff, and it would be great if the residents of the North to get a chance to participate in growing their prosperity instead of forever starving in a totalitarian nightmare.
- bjourne 8y ago
  > Under Trump, they have good reason to be concerned about the possibility of military force and are taking a more cautious and reconciliatory approach. I think the North Koreans are well aware that militaristic posturing won't get them very far with Trump the way it did with past presidents. If they did fear Trump, why did they launch rocket after rocket while he threatened them with hell's fury? Trump role in the story appears more to be as an easily antagonalizable president against whom it is easy to show how "strong" you are. It's easier to negotiate from a position of strength than in one which you are thought of as to be inferior.
cryptonector 8y ago
Anyone and anything but Trump caused this. That's what I'm seeing today, and I don't think that's remotely correct. Only one major change has taken place, and it's not a change of presidency in SK. Whether we like him or not, President Trump did this, and we should rejoice. SK's President says Trump made this possible -- shall we ignore that?
- youwishboye 8y ago
  if you aren't trolling, you're massively disillusioned buddy
- blhack 8y ago
  >Anyone and anything but Trump caused this. I initially misread your comment. To anybody who wants more info on how this all went down: SK wanted to meet with NK specifically because the US was taking increasingly aggressive stances towards NK, and they wanted to avoid conflict. The rest of the peace talks are a direct result of Trump agreeing to meet with KJU. https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-korea-what-you-need-know-about-koreas-summit-and-trump-kim-summit https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-korea-what-you-need-know...
  - cryptonector 8y ago
    That quote was a sarcastic comment on the state of this thread. If you look at my other comments on this thread you'll see I am crediting President Trump. Look folks, no one has to like DJT, but we mustn't deny his successes -- we mustn't twist ourselves into pretzels to deny that he caused NK to sue for peace.
    - blhack 8y ago
      I misread your comment. Sorry about that! Edited. The link I posted is still a good one.
- tomtheelder 8y ago
  > Only one major change has taken place, and it's not a change of presidency in SK. This is so wildly inaccurate. First off, a colossal scandal and changing of power from one party to another party in one of the countries involved in the treaty certainly counts as a major change, especially when it's a transition from an anti-reconciliation government to a pro-reconciliation one. In fact, this is the first time that the president of SK has held that position during the reign of Kim Jong-Un. In addition to that, NK has finally actually demonstrated nuclear capability, turning that into a FAR more credible threat than ever before. Lastly, China's position on NK has been shifting over time (definitely started during the Obama presidency) and they have become increasingly impatient and intolerant of NK. That has accelerated during (and likely because of) Trump, but he 100% didn't start it. I am sure that Trump played a role in this, but to suggest that he is the only major change is pure American exceptionalist nonsense.
beirut_bootleg 8y ago
You’re not alone. It’s just easier to chant “Moon Jae-in said it so it must be true”, and get enough voices to drown out any opposing views. This has been the driving strategy behind Trump’s base since the start. Singing “Trump made this happen with his childish Twitter diplomacy” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. There is a blurry line between making something happen through direct action, and allowing it to happen through incompetence.
- blhack 8y ago
  It's not "his childish twitter diplomacy". Mike Pompeo was just in NK. Trump also agreed to talks with KJU, which is what triggered all of these summits to begin with. You don't have to like the guy, but the US absolutely had a hand in this.
  - drak0n1c 8y ago
    There were also targeted sanctions and freezing of assets of Russian and Chinese smugglers, which was the most important policy change. Realpolitik cargo culting prevented prior administrations from taking that extra step. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sanctions-chinese-and-russian-companies-and-individuals-for-conducting-business-with-north-korea/2017/08/22/78992312-8743-11e7-961d-2f373b3977ee_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sa...
    - jessaustin 8y ago
      The idea that USA diplomats and bureaucrats didn't sanction enough simply does not compute. No one in Washington ever heard of a sanction she didn't like.
lifthrasiir 8y ago
While Trump clearly had a major role in this agreement (contrary to what some media want to portray), your hypothesis is indeed rather strongly backed by the post-impeachment relevation [1]. I guess this is not well known outside of SK, so I tried to give some outline: Park Geun-hye in her presidental term had repeatedly stressed that the Korean reunification will be a bonanza ("통일은 대박이다"), but this unusual and ultimately information-free slogan turned out to be coined by Choi Soon-sil, a cult leader behind Park Geun-hye. Choi wanted to, literally, make NK collapse in two years after the sudden closure of the Kaesong Industrial Region in 2016 in order to pave a way to Park's reelection---while the current Constitution of South Korea does not allow for the presidental reelection, critical events like the collapse of NK can force amendments or even allow excuse to the Constitution. Choi even tried to leverage those future events into huge returns by buying land near the 38th parallel. After Park's impeachment, it was revealed that there were multiple attempts from NK (yes, you read right) during the Park's term to make contact to SK, only to be ignored. For example, top officials from NK visited SK during the 2014 Asian Games in Incheon and (unsuccessfully) asked to arrange a meeting with Park. This breakdown was for a long time attributed to NK, but in reality Park (and in turn, Choi) had just ignored the request. [1] The primary source is an interview of Jang Shiho from Lee Gyu-yeon's Spotlight (a JTBC programme), but individual points were also independently confirmed via multiple sources. Jang was a niece of Choi Soon-sil and eventually sentenced to 2 1/2 year imprisonment in 2017 after giving much clues to investigators (for plea bargaining).
- Endama 8y ago
  I think a lot of this news went largely unnoticed by those in the west but Choi Soon-Sil was truly Korea's Rasputin. I encourage anyone interested in hearing a crazy story to take a look at the debacle between her and Park Geun-Hye.
nostrademons 8y ago
I've heard this is largely because North Korea's nuclear test site collapsed: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/214... With no viable test site, North Korea's nuclear program is kaput, as are their ambitions of becoming a major nuclear power. Moreover, there is now a massive environmental disaster that will affect people all over the Korean peninsula plus northern China. They have no choice to come to the negotiating table, and South Korea has a strong incentive to reach a peace deal so they can get their geologists, engineers, and inspectors in and mitigate the damage before a massive fall-out plume blows over Seoul.
- real-hacker 8y ago
  What environmental disaster are you talking about?

opmac 8y ago

Yes, you're literally the only one.

murph-almighty 8y ago

Unrelated, but the scandal that got Park kicked out was wild. Never thought someone trying to force their daughter into a college would lead to the president of SK resigning.

girvo 8y ago
South Korean politic scandals are fascinating to watch from the outside... must suck to have to deal with if you lived there though. I spent six months in Busan, not long enough for any of that myself and I was too young to have given a damn about politics anyway

vivekd 8y ago

I would doubt this because from 1998 to 2008 Korea has had liberal presidents who had a policy of engagement towards North Korea and we didn't get peace in that time. While getting rid of Park Geun-Hye certainly made this easier - I think this has more to do with Kim Jong Un and also the warm reception N. Korea got at the recent winter Olympics in South Korea. That said I would be cautious how far this would go. I suspect a lot of N. Koreas militaristic acts and statements over the years is not because of any actual desire but war, but just posturing to help in negotiations over tariffs and aid. I am also going to take the unpopular opinion and say that Trump does deserve some credit. Under many past Presidents, the N. Korean government knew America would never use military force and acted accordingly. Under Trump, they have good reason to be concerned about the possibility of military force and are taking a more cautious and reconciliatory approach. I think the North Koreans are well aware that militaristic posturing won't get them very far with Trump the way it did with past presidents.

uurrnn 8y ago
Kim Jong-un wasn't the leader of NK from 98-08 as well, fwiw.
deusofnull 8y ago
Reunification efforts in the late 1990s and early 2000s were complicated by the shift in US Policy from the Clinton to Bush Admin. Clinton's admin wanted to support the so called Sunshine Policy, which favored moving towards reunification. For the US's part, they agreed to not re apply new sanctions on the North as long as the North continued to operate within the parameters of their Sunshine Policy negotiated with the South. That was what was happening, but then Bush came into office and this policy changed. New sanctions were put upon DPRK and they would eventually be included in the Bush Admin's "Axis of Evil" (Iran, Iraq, and North Korea). This caused the North to go back on its agreements and the Sunshine Policy as a whole, and did also align with more conservative governments in South Korea. All that said, I was smiling so big last night seeing the two leaders shaking hands, smiling themselves. A reunification of the 2 Koreas would be an absolute blessing upon the world. Many people in the North and South long to be reunited. Not to mention the ease of so many tensions in SE Asia that would come from 1 Korea.
- ConceptJunkie 8y ago
  Not to mention the fact that this can lead to easing the tremendous suffering of the people of North Korea. South Korea is an exciting country that is accomplishing some really cool stuff, and it would be great if the residents of the North to get a chance to participate in growing their prosperity instead of forever starving in a totalitarian nightmare.
bjourne 8y ago
> Under Trump, they have good reason to be concerned about the possibility of military force and are taking a more cautious and reconciliatory approach. I think the North Koreans are well aware that militaristic posturing won't get them very far with Trump the way it did with past presidents. If they did fear Trump, why did they launch rocket after rocket while he threatened them with hell's fury? Trump role in the story appears more to be as an easily antagonalizable president against whom it is easy to show how "strong" you are. It's easier to negotiate from a position of strength than in one which you are thought of as to be inferior.

cryptonector 8y ago

Anyone and anything but Trump caused this. That's what I'm seeing today, and I don't think that's remotely correct. Only one major change has taken place, and it's not a change of presidency in SK. Whether we like him or not, President Trump did this, and we should rejoice. SK's President says Trump made this possible -- shall we ignore that?

youwishboye 8y ago
if you aren't trolling, you're massively disillusioned buddy
blhack 8y ago
>Anyone and anything but Trump caused this. I initially misread your comment. To anybody who wants more info on how this all went down: SK wanted to meet with NK specifically because the US was taking increasingly aggressive stances towards NK, and they wanted to avoid conflict. The rest of the peace talks are a direct result of Trump agreeing to meet with KJU. https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-korea-what-you-need-know-about-koreas-summit-and-trump-kim-summit https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-korea-what-you-need-know...
- cryptonector 8y ago
  That quote was a sarcastic comment on the state of this thread. If you look at my other comments on this thread you'll see I am crediting President Trump. Look folks, no one has to like DJT, but we mustn't deny his successes -- we mustn't twist ourselves into pretzels to deny that he caused NK to sue for peace.
  - blhack 8y ago
    I misread your comment. Sorry about that! Edited. The link I posted is still a good one.
tomtheelder 8y ago
> Only one major change has taken place, and it's not a change of presidency in SK. This is so wildly inaccurate. First off, a colossal scandal and changing of power from one party to another party in one of the countries involved in the treaty certainly counts as a major change, especially when it's a transition from an anti-reconciliation government to a pro-reconciliation one. In fact, this is the first time that the president of SK has held that position during the reign of Kim Jong-Un. In addition to that, NK has finally actually demonstrated nuclear capability, turning that into a FAR more credible threat than ever before. Lastly, China's position on NK has been shifting over time (definitely started during the Obama presidency) and they have become increasingly impatient and intolerant of NK. That has accelerated during (and likely because of) Trump, but he 100% didn't start it. I am sure that Trump played a role in this, but to suggest that he is the only major change is pure American exceptionalist nonsense.

beirut_bootleg 8y ago

You’re not alone. It’s just easier to chant “Moon Jae-in said it so it must be true”, and get enough voices to drown out any opposing views. This has been the driving strategy behind Trump’s base since the start. Singing “Trump made this happen with his childish Twitter diplomacy” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. There is a blurry line between making something happen through direct action, and allowing it to happen through incompetence.

blhack 8y ago
It's not "his childish twitter diplomacy". Mike Pompeo was just in NK. Trump also agreed to talks with KJU, which is what triggered all of these summits to begin with. You don't have to like the guy, but the US absolutely had a hand in this.
- drak0n1c 8y ago
  There were also targeted sanctions and freezing of assets of Russian and Chinese smugglers, which was the most important policy change. Realpolitik cargo culting prevented prior administrations from taking that extra step. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sanctions-chinese-and-russian-companies-and-individuals-for-conducting-business-with-north-korea/2017/08/22/78992312-8743-11e7-961d-2f373b3977ee_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sa...
  - jessaustin 8y ago
    The idea that USA diplomats and bureaucrats didn't sanction enough simply does not compute. No one in Washington ever heard of a sanction she didn't like.

lifthrasiir 8y ago

While Trump clearly had a major role in this agreement (contrary to what some media want to portray), your hypothesis is indeed rather strongly backed by the post-impeachment relevation [1]. I guess this is not well known outside of SK, so I tried to give some outline: Park Geun-hye in her presidental term had repeatedly stressed that the Korean reunification will be a bonanza ("통일은 대박이다"), but this unusual and ultimately information-free slogan turned out to be coined by Choi Soon-sil, a cult leader behind Park Geun-hye. Choi wanted to, literally, make NK collapse in two years after the sudden closure of the Kaesong Industrial Region in 2016 in order to pave a way to Park's reelection---while the current Constitution of South Korea does not allow for the presidental reelection, critical events like the collapse of NK can force amendments or even allow excuse to the Constitution. Choi even tried to leverage those future events into huge returns by buying land near the 38th parallel. After Park's impeachment, it was revealed that there were multiple attempts from NK (yes, you read right) during the Park's term to make contact to SK, only to be ignored. For example, top officials from NK visited SK during the 2014 Asian Games in Incheon and (unsuccessfully) asked to arrange a meeting with Park. This breakdown was for a long time attributed to NK, but in reality Park (and in turn, Choi) had just ignored the request. [1] The primary source is an interview of Jang Shiho from Lee Gyu-yeon's Spotlight (a JTBC programme), but individual points were also independently confirmed via multiple sources. Jang was a niece of Choi Soon-sil and eventually sentenced to 2 1/2 year imprisonment in 2017 after giving much clues to investigators (for plea bargaining).

Endama 8y ago
I think a lot of this news went largely unnoticed by those in the west but Choi Soon-Sil was truly Korea's Rasputin. I encourage anyone interested in hearing a crazy story to take a look at the debacle between her and Park Geun-Hye.

nostrademons 8y ago

I've heard this is largely because North Korea's nuclear test site collapsed: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/214... With no viable test site, North Korea's nuclear program is kaput, as are their ambitions of becoming a major nuclear power. Moreover, there is now a massive environmental disaster that will affect people all over the Korean peninsula plus northern China. They have no choice to come to the negotiating table, and South Korea has a strong incentive to reach a peace deal so they can get their geologists, engineers, and inspectors in and mitigate the damage before a massive fall-out plume blows over Seoul.

real-hacker 8y ago
What environmental disaster are you talking about?