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I think you're exactly right. I see this as the "Peace for Our Time"[1] deal that people will get excited about now, and cause us to take our eye off the real d

I think you're exactly right. I see this as the "Peace for Our Time"[1] deal that people will get excited about now, and cause us to take our eye off the real danger. Until tragedy happens. But maybe I'm just a pessimist. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time

koboll 8y ago
There's a big difference: Hitler had the capability to launch a successful aggressive war. Kim, without a doubt, does not. And no amount of military buildup will get him to equal footing with the Western powers poised to massively retaliate if he provokes war. So what exactly is the tragedy you're talking about? A nuclear attack? That would be suicide. It's hard to subscribe to predictions that fly in the face of basic principles of international relations.
- hangonhn 8y ago
  This is where the nuclear weapons and madman ploy comes in. Once the US exits the Korean peninsula (and really, why is the US there now there is "peace"?), it's a lot harder for us to go back and help South Korea when North Korea and the supposed madman Kim is threatening us with nukes. "That would be suicide." This is exactly why he deploys his madman act. You can reason about a reasonable person but a madman introduces an element of randomness. Once you're dealing with randomness, you have to talk in terms of probability. Would the US be willing to take even a 1% chance that he would go that far and launch nukes at us?
  - vkou 8y ago
    Why are you assuming North Korea is insane? Given the situation they have been in for the past 60 years, and the political climate of the past 17, their behavior has been quite rational.
    - hangonhn 8y ago
      They're not at all! They put up that act to make people believe they are so that it introduces an element of uncertainty into the calculation. Like the parent said, going to war with the US is suicide, which no rational leader would do but a seemingly irrational/insane leader might. This adds an element of risk to the US and make us think twice about intervening.
- jacquesc 8y ago
  The events wont be exactly the same of course. The tragedy I fear is war with China, triggered by North Korean aggression. Both WWI and WWII started in ways that flew in the face of principles of international relations.

koboll 8y ago

There's a big difference: Hitler had the capability to launch a successful aggressive war. Kim, without a doubt, does not. And no amount of military buildup will get him to equal footing with the Western powers poised to massively retaliate if he provokes war. So what exactly is the tragedy you're talking about? A nuclear attack? That would be suicide. It's hard to subscribe to predictions that fly in the face of basic principles of international relations.

hangonhn 8y ago
This is where the nuclear weapons and madman ploy comes in. Once the US exits the Korean peninsula (and really, why is the US there now there is "peace"?), it's a lot harder for us to go back and help South Korea when North Korea and the supposed madman Kim is threatening us with nukes. "That would be suicide." This is exactly why he deploys his madman act. You can reason about a reasonable person but a madman introduces an element of randomness. Once you're dealing with randomness, you have to talk in terms of probability. Would the US be willing to take even a 1% chance that he would go that far and launch nukes at us?
- vkou 8y ago
  Why are you assuming North Korea is insane? Given the situation they have been in for the past 60 years, and the political climate of the past 17, their behavior has been quite rational.
  - hangonhn 8y ago
    They're not at all! They put up that act to make people believe they are so that it introduces an element of uncertainty into the calculation. Like the parent said, going to war with the US is suicide, which no rational leader would do but a seemingly irrational/insane leader might. This adds an element of risk to the US and make us think twice about intervening.
jacquesc 8y ago
The events wont be exactly the same of course. The tragedy I fear is war with China, triggered by North Korean aggression. Both WWI and WWII started in ways that flew in the face of principles of international relations.