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The big question is if China would allow it. The answer 60 years ago was a violent "no".

by cjslep 8y ago

Jtsummers 8y ago
If North Korea remains its own state buy they achieve some sense of peace, China would be happiest. The US would have little justification for keeping their military on the peninsula and would have to find new justification for the size of their military presence in Japan. China would still have a buffer between themselves and a US ally. If they somehow joined into one country (doesn’t seem likely near term but let’s say it happens) the same element with the US military withdrawal remains. But China loses the buffer zone. They’d be less happy but probably not unhappy. The rhetoric out of NK, especially since they developed nukes, could not have made China happy. All it did was help justify the US military presence in the region. This harms some of China’s objectives and also keeps the US physically and politically present in what they see as their part of the world. Peace here could strengthen Chinese political influence, especially if they can claim and justify that they were key players in achieving this peace.
- PakG1 8y ago
  The most likely path forward is for North Korea to develop using the Chinese model without all the Chinese mistakes (eg. learn all the lessons that China learned the hard way without making the same mistakes). This path forward would likely satisfice all parties, though China would probably come out a bit ahead in the grand scheme of things.
dogma1138 8y ago
China only cares that the US troops don’t move further up north, NK is a buffer for them if that buffer isn’t needed (as the reason for their presence will be gone) then it won’t be as much of a problem. In fact this might be better for them since it reduces the justification of deploying US ABM systems in their back yard. Currently the US can station all the missile defense which also can be used for anti-satellite purposes and no one can bat an eye as long as NK continues to pollute the Sea of Japan with hydrazine on a regular basis (at this point I think the true goal of their missile program is to wage economic war on Japan by killing all the Tuna with rocket fuel).

The big question is if China would allow it. The answer 60 years ago was a violent "no".

by cjslep 8y ago

The big question is if China would allow it. The answer 60 years ago was a violent "no".

If North Korea remains its own state buy they achieve some sense of peace, China would be happiest. The US would have little justification for keeping their military on the peninsula and would have to find new justification for the size of their military presence in Japan. China would still have a buffer between themselves and a US ally. If they somehow joined into one country (doesn’t seem likely near term but let’s say it happens) the same element with the US military withdrawal remains. But China loses the buffer zone. They’d be less happy but probably not unhappy. The rhetoric out of NK, especially since they developed nukes, could not have made China happy. All it did was help justify the US military presence in the region. This harms some of China’s objectives and also keeps the US physically and politically present in what they see as their part of the world. Peace here could strengthen Chinese political influence, especially if they can claim and justify that they were key players in achieving this peace.

PakG1 8y ago
The most likely path forward is for North Korea to develop using the Chinese model without all the Chinese mistakes (eg. learn all the lessons that China learned the hard way without making the same mistakes). This path forward would likely satisfice all parties, though China would probably come out a bit ahead in the grand scheme of things.

dogma1138 8y ago

China only cares that the US troops don’t move further up north, NK is a buffer for them if that buffer isn’t needed (as the reason for their presence will be gone) then it won’t be as much of a problem. In fact this might be better for them since it reduces the justification of deploying US ABM systems in their back yard. Currently the US can station all the missile defense which also can be used for anti-satellite purposes and no one can bat an eye as long as NK continues to pollute the Sea of Japan with hydrazine on a regular basis (at this point I think the true goal of their missile program is to wage economic war on Japan by killing all the Tuna with rocket fuel).