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Is this going to be a massive maintenance problem in ten years time? I thought that’s the lifespan of panels. Usually the problem with building lots of infrast

by sqldba 8y ago

Is this going to be a massive maintenance problem in ten years time? I thought that’s the lifespan of panels. Usually the problem with building lots of infrastructure is it gets expensive to maintain. It happens with roads and buildings. Will it happen with solar? (I’m hoping not because efficiency is still improving and prices are still going down whereas for roads I think it went up - but I don’t know why).

dgacmu 8y ago
25-30 years. 80% efficiency after 20 years.
FooHentai 8y ago
80% of power at 20 years is fairly standard for solar panels. It's a slow taper too, you just lose around 1% of output each year you sweat them. There'll be other losses due to failures, damage etc. but it's not a situation where you should factor in a strict capital replacement cycle.
- ianai 8y ago
  You should always factor in a capital cost (replacement, repair, etc).
  - FooHentai 8y ago
    Doing it in the accounting manner that a typical firm would do is foolish in this instance. A homeowner is going to sweat assets, and in the case of Solar a 1% degradation per year means that, short of some damage or failure, the time you're likely to sweat them is between 20 and 80 years.
philipkglass 8y ago
Actual usable lifetime is significantly longer. There's a good compendium of information here: https://www.nrel.gov/pv/lifetime.html https://www.nrel.gov/pv/lifetime.html If you want to do a deep dive, the open preprint of "Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: an Analytical Review" is a good start: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf It's from 2011 so is a little dated, but later studies have found about the same degradation rates. It's good because it uses data from large numbers of real-world solar installations. Most degradation studies are reporting on only a small number of modules and/or use artificial accelerated aging conditions. The median degradation rate for crystalline silicon PV modules was found to be 0.5% per year. This would imply more than 40 years for the median module performance to decline to 80% of original rated output. I personally use 30 years as a more conservative rule of thumb, especially since modules appear to follow a degradation "bathtub curve." But it is clear from field data that the median solar module produces useful power levels far longer than 10 years. I suspect that modules designed for durability can achieve median lifetimes over 50 years.

by sqldba 8y ago

dgacmu 8y ago

25-30 years. 80% efficiency after 20 years.

FooHentai 8y ago

80% of power at 20 years is fairly standard for solar panels. It's a slow taper too, you just lose around 1% of output each year you sweat them. There'll be other losses due to failures, damage etc. but it's not a situation where you should factor in a strict capital replacement cycle.

ianai 8y ago
You should always factor in a capital cost (replacement, repair, etc).
- FooHentai 8y ago
  Doing it in the accounting manner that a typical firm would do is foolish in this instance. A homeowner is going to sweat assets, and in the case of Solar a 1% degradation per year means that, short of some damage or failure, the time you're likely to sweat them is between 20 and 80 years.

philipkglass 8y ago

Actual usable lifetime is significantly longer. There's a good compendium of information here: https://www.nrel.gov/pv/lifetime.html https://www.nrel.gov/pv/lifetime.html If you want to do a deep dive, the open preprint of "Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: an Analytical Review" is a good start: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf It's from 2011 so is a little dated, but later studies have found about the same degradation rates. It's good because it uses data from large numbers of real-world solar installations. Most degradation studies are reporting on only a small number of modules and/or use artificial accelerated aging conditions. The median degradation rate for crystalline silicon PV modules was found to be 0.5% per year. This would imply more than 40 years for the median module performance to decline to 80% of original rated output. I personally use 30 years as a more conservative rule of thumb, especially since modules appear to follow a degradation "bathtub curve." But it is clear from field data that the median solar module produces useful power levels far longer than 10 years. I suspect that modules designed for durability can achieve median lifetimes over 50 years.