4 ms·

You missed the advertised by media doom of those jobs by automation and artificial intelligence.

by polskibus 9y ago

EADGBE 9y ago
Of all the jobs to automate, I see the building trades being replaced last.
- lostlogin 9y ago
  I see early childhood and primary school teaching going later.
  - matte_black 9y ago
    Quick! someone write a short story about AIs who hire a professional human.
- petra 9y ago
  There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, with very little professional work on site. But on the other hand, yesterday we had an article here about visual coding, and according to some it can build very complex application with much higher productivity(and maybe the work becomes accessible to business analysts and domain experts, maybe). So it's hard to tell these days.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    >There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, Not my area but various companies have been trying to do this sort of thing forever. I can remember reading stories about partially pre-manufactured modular homes decades ago and it's never panned out. It seems to be one of those ideas that makes a lot of sense on paper but people don't want it.
    - larkost 9y ago
      I grew up in a Sears & Roebuck home, as were a good portion of those on my block. The Wikipedia article on the subject says that there were 70,000 of them built[1]. So I see this as more of something that has come and gone, probably a few times, and we are back on the up-swing. The Sears & Roebuck were partially assembled (think wall by wall), and then those parts were hoisted off the freight trains and nailed together. There was still a lot of work that needed to be done (often by professionals), but it really cut down on the (especially local) costs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home
  - sah2ed 9y ago
    Katerra? They recently raised $865m lead by SoftBank's vision fund [0]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/dealbook/katerra-softbank-vision-fund.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/dealbook/katerra...
  - EADGBE 9y ago
    I think “the last mile” of this process is going to be the hardest to automate.
- mywittyname 9y ago
  You don't automate, you make things more efficient. The building industry is very good at bringing to market products that increase productivity by double or more. So people will have to build more houses for the same money.
  - NFPA_SysAdmin 9y ago
    In many cases, you'll end up making something that works using simple relays way more complex, so you'll still need some kind of technician to troubleshoot the equipment when it fails. The "advances" in equipment technology is mostly for sales brochures but in many cases the increased complexity creates more failure points and simply requires a different type of technician to troubleshoot.
    - mywittyname 9y ago
      I'm talking about things like PEX, which drastically simplify and reduce the time needed to plumb a house. The construction industry as a whole seems to be making a huge investment in time-saving innovations.
cathhhhji 9y ago
How do you automate HVAC, plumbing, land scaping, etc. Gonna send a robot into my home and fix things?
- ShabbosGoy 9y ago
  It’s more like you have a smart home with dozens of sensors and IoT devices that will have some self-healing capabilities. Don’t forget the always-on listening device and screen so you can be brainwashed daily.
- sf_rob 9y ago
  Well my dad's construction company is doing a lot more prefab in warehouses which is not only more efficient but removes hazard pay (elevation related). This would not be possible if not for the advances in BIM software.
- delecti 9y ago
  I don't think anyone can guarantee what will or will not be automated in 10 years, let alone the 40+ year span that the average high school graduate can expect their career to last. That said, past trends hint at it being more likely that manual labor positions will be decreasingly lucrative as time goes on.
- adamsea 9y ago
  Gonna send in the nanotechnology ;)
- analog31 9y ago
  Prefab, and technologies that reduce labor. It won't eliminate labor completely, but will reduce demand. My house is full of copper plumbing, all cut and soldered together by hand. The wiring is all in hard conduit. Today, conduit is gone, and plumbers assemble things using flexible tubing and fittings that get squeezed onto the ends (for lack of the correct terminology). I doubt that fixing things will ever provide as much work as construction.
gaius 9y ago
There will be plumbers and hairdressers long after the last lawyer and accountant have been replaced by AI.

You missed the advertised by media doom of those jobs by automation and artificial intelligence.

EADGBE 9y ago

Of all the jobs to automate, I see the building trades being replaced last.

lostlogin 9y ago
I see early childhood and primary school teaching going later.
- matte_black 9y ago
  Quick! someone write a short story about AIs who hire a professional human.
petra 9y ago
There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, with very little professional work on site. But on the other hand, yesterday we had an article here about visual coding, and according to some it can build very complex application with much higher productivity(and maybe the work becomes accessible to business analysts and domain experts, maybe). So it's hard to tell these days.
- ghaff 9y ago
  >There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, Not my area but various companies have been trying to do this sort of thing forever. I can remember reading stories about partially pre-manufactured modular homes decades ago and it's never panned out. It seems to be one of those ideas that makes a lot of sense on paper but people don't want it.
  - larkost 9y ago
    I grew up in a Sears & Roebuck home, as were a good portion of those on my block. The Wikipedia article on the subject says that there were 70,000 of them built[1]. So I see this as more of something that has come and gone, probably a few times, and we are back on the up-swing. The Sears & Roebuck were partially assembled (think wall by wall), and then those parts were hoisted off the freight trains and nailed together. There was still a lot of work that needed to be done (often by professionals), but it really cut down on the (especially local) costs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home
- sah2ed 9y ago
  Katerra? They recently raised $865m lead by SoftBank's vision fund [0]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/dealbook/katerra-softbank-vision-fund.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/business/dealbook/katerra...
- EADGBE 9y ago
  I think “the last mile” of this process is going to be the hardest to automate.
mywittyname 9y ago
You don't automate, you make things more efficient. The building industry is very good at bringing to market products that increase productivity by double or more. So people will have to build more houses for the same money.
- NFPA_SysAdmin 9y ago
  In many cases, you'll end up making something that works using simple relays way more complex, so you'll still need some kind of technician to troubleshoot the equipment when it fails. The "advances" in equipment technology is mostly for sales brochures but in many cases the increased complexity creates more failure points and simply requires a different type of technician to troubleshoot.
  - mywittyname 9y ago
    I'm talking about things like PEX, which drastically simplify and reduce the time needed to plumb a house. The construction industry as a whole seems to be making a huge investment in time-saving innovations.

cathhhhji 9y ago

How do you automate HVAC, plumbing, land scaping, etc. Gonna send a robot into my home and fix things?

ShabbosGoy 9y ago
It’s more like you have a smart home with dozens of sensors and IoT devices that will have some self-healing capabilities. Don’t forget the always-on listening device and screen so you can be brainwashed daily.
sf_rob 9y ago
Well my dad's construction company is doing a lot more prefab in warehouses which is not only more efficient but removes hazard pay (elevation related). This would not be possible if not for the advances in BIM software.
delecti 9y ago
I don't think anyone can guarantee what will or will not be automated in 10 years, let alone the 40+ year span that the average high school graduate can expect their career to last. That said, past trends hint at it being more likely that manual labor positions will be decreasingly lucrative as time goes on.
adamsea 9y ago
Gonna send in the nanotechnology ;)
analog31 9y ago
Prefab, and technologies that reduce labor. It won't eliminate labor completely, but will reduce demand. My house is full of copper plumbing, all cut and soldered together by hand. The wiring is all in hard conduit. Today, conduit is gone, and plumbers assemble things using flexible tubing and fittings that get squeezed onto the ends (for lack of the correct terminology). I doubt that fixing things will ever provide as much work as construction.

gaius 9y ago

There will be plumbers and hairdressers long after the last lawyer and accountant have been replaced by AI.