12 ms·

Trade skills are a great field to get into, with caveats. First, construction in general is a pretty up and down industry. Construction booms don't last foreve

Trade skills are a great field to get into, with caveats. First, construction in general is a pretty up and down industry. Construction booms don't last forever, and in general you need to 'follow the work'. This is great if you are young, single, and willing to chase the high paying jobs. Not so great if you have a strong desire to stay in one spot. Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. After a couple decades of work your body begins to break down, assuming there are no workplace injuries to put you out of commission sooner. Third, workplace conditions are on average undesirable. Outdoors in the heat/cold, or indoors in tight spaces or high places. It's tough sell over companies that glorify bean bag chairs, nap pods, and free beer on hand. Fourth, there's a social stigma around trade skill jobs. Blue collar jobs have gained a reputation of being jobs held by slackers or the less fortunate. Unfortunately, wearing workboots carries a stigma that wearing a shirt and tie/'startup' attire doesn't. Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. From a safety perspective, it makes sense. But for better or worse, marijuana use is becoming more socially accepted while work places (and in particular trade jobs) are lagging behind the times. Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. Sixth, and this is arguably the biggest one, four year degrees are seen as a status symbol and are being sold to use as such. They are Big Education, and are pulling on all the right strings to keep the tuition/student debt machine running. Advocating for trade jobs is in direct competition. They have enough players in their pockets (donors, alumnus, politicians) to keep the money flowing in the right direction. Selling someone on trade school/work is hard when it is seen as the less optimal path towards 'life success'. All of these observations are based off my fathers experience as union based pipe fitter/welder for >30 years.

polskibus 8y ago
You missed the advertised by media doom of those jobs by automation and artificial intelligence.
- EADGBE 8y ago
  Of all the jobs to automate, I see the building trades being replaced last.
  - lostlogin 8y ago
    I see early childhood and primary school teaching going later.
    - matte_black 8y ago
      Quick! someone write a short story about AIs who hire a professional human.
  - petra 8y ago
    There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, with very little professional work on site. But on the other hand, yesterday we had an article here about visual coding, and according to some it can build very complex application with much higher productivity(and maybe the work becomes accessible to business analysts and domain experts, maybe). So it's hard to tell these days.
    - ghaff 8y ago
      >There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, Not my area but various companies have been trying to do this sort of thing forever. I can remember reading stories about partially pre-manufactured modular homes decades ago and it's never panned out. It seems to be one of those ideas that makes a lot of sense on paper but people don't want it.
      - larkost 8y ago
        I grew up in a Sears & Roebuck home, as were a good portion of those on my block. The Wikipedia article on the subject says that there were 70,000 of them built[1]. So I see this as more of something that has come and gone, probably a few times, and we are back on the up-swing. The Sears & Roebuck were partially assembled (think wall by wall), and then those parts were hoisted off the freight trains and nailed together. There was still a lot of work that needed to be done (often by professionals), but it really cut down on the (especially local) costs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home
- cathhhhji 8y ago
  How do you automate HVAC, plumbing, land scaping, etc. Gonna send a robot into my home and fix things?
  - ShabbosGoy 8y ago
    It’s more like you have a smart home with dozens of sensors and IoT devices that will have some self-healing capabilities. Don’t forget the always-on listening device and screen so you can be brainwashed daily.
  - sf_rob 8y ago
    Well my dad's construction company is doing a lot more prefab in warehouses which is not only more efficient but removes hazard pay (elevation related). This would not be possible if not for the advances in BIM software.
  - delecti 8y ago
    I don't think anyone can guarantee what will or will not be automated in 10 years, let alone the 40+ year span that the average high school graduate can expect their career to last. That said, past trends hint at it being more likely that manual labor positions will be decreasingly lucrative as time goes on.
  - adamsea 8y ago
    Gonna send in the nanotechnology ;)
  - analog31 8y ago
    Prefab, and technologies that reduce labor. It won't eliminate labor completely, but will reduce demand. My house is full of copper plumbing, all cut and soldered together by hand. The wiring is all in hard conduit. Today, conduit is gone, and plumbers assemble things using flexible tubing and fittings that get squeezed onto the ends (for lack of the correct terminology). I doubt that fixing things will ever provide as much work as construction.
- gaius 8y ago
  There will be plumbers and hairdressers long after the last lawyer and accountant have been replaced by AI.
EADGBE 8y ago
I like your points. > Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. To me, trade jobs seem to be the most willing to offer a "second chance" to workers willing to work. More so than some white-collar jobs that have a no tolerance drug/crime policy.
- protonimitate 8y ago
  Yes, failing a drug test for weed is not usually a black mark for trade workers. But a majority of trade workers get bounced around job sites, and are usually required to pass a screen before each one. If you get sent to a job with little notice (can happen within a week), you need to pass a screen. If you fail, you simply don't get hired and have to enter the queue and wait for the next opportunity. Fail enough times and you either get dropped by your union local, or black listed entirely. So messing up a drug screen once or twice doesn't mean you will lose all job opportunities, but it could mean you go without work for 1 week to over a year. And if you are represented by a trade union, you don't have the luxury to apply freely to open positions like you would in the white collar market.
  - Spooky23 8y ago
    As an adult you need to choose between a immature desire to smoke weed or abuse alcohol and your work where the health and safety of others is at risk. If you’re lucky enough to get into the union, I doubt you care much about the luxury of making less money.
    - billmalarky 8y ago
      > immature desire to smoke weed or abuse alcohol I find it interesting you equate even light use of marijuana with the abuse of alcohol.
      - Spooky23 8y ago
        Alcohol leaves the body in a few hours. If an employer screening is picking up alchohol, that’s by definition abuse. With respect to marijuana, it’s well known that it is detectable for some period of time. If you’re smoking with full knowledge that you can be randomly screened, you’re demonstrating poor judgment and risk tolerance. I don’t want someone dumb enough to do these things in a position where my health and safety is at risk.
msla 8y ago
Adding onto/tying together the second and third of your points: Some trades will take you to awful places to live and work. For example, if your job takes you into the oil fields, there's a good chance you're going to Bakken, and North Dakota/eastern Montana is just a fundamentally terrible place to be, winter or summer, and the usual boomtown criminality and lack of resources only makes it worse. That's tough on your family, too: Those places don't have good schools. The after-school activities consist of drugs, drinking, and driving under the influence of one or both to get to and from the places you do both or either. There's a reason there's a meth/opioid epidemic in those regions, and it isn't because they have a vibrant social scene with plenty of gathering places you can walk to most of the year. I lived in Havre for ten years, including my high school years, and I have, if anything, understated the problems because Havre isn't nearly as bad as the Bakken region.
matte_black 8y ago
> Fourth, there's a social stigma around trade skill jobs. Blue collar jobs have gained a reputation of being jobs held by slackers or the less fortunate. Unfortunately, wearing workboots carries a stigma that wearing a shirt and tie/'startup' attire doesn't. Tech jobs aren’t free from this anymore. For people in the industry, if all you do is stuff like front end JavaScript work (basically what any boot camp grad does), you’re basically the tech equivalent of a construction worker. Except now, others outside the industry are catching on to this too. The people in tech who get all the prestige are those who are solving real problems or work in more esoteric domains, at least by those who aren’t also blue collar workers themselves. Nothing wrong with it, it’s just the way it is. Prestige won’t last forever.
- michaelt 8y ago
  The people in tech who get all the prestige are those who are solving real problems or work in more esoteric domains I'm not sure my girlfriend's parents appreciate the difference between me inventing my own Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm and me importing Apache ZooKeeper.
gascan 8y ago
Blue collar jobs have gained a reputation of being jobs held by slackers or the less fortunate. Ironic given that plenty of blue collar professionals can make a lot more than your average worker in many degreed professions. (That's not to say the average blue collar wage is higher) I feel like referencing welding is pretty cliche, but for example: http://profoundlydisconnected.com/welding-is-a-100000-job/ http://profoundlydisconnected.com/welding-is-a-100000-job/
- germinalphrase 8y ago
  The downside being, of course, that your vision only lasts so long as a welder.
  - biggieshellz 8y ago
    Why is that? If you wear your PPE (helmet with appropriate shade while welding, face shield while grinding), I would think you would be protected.
    - ddingus 8y ago
      You largely are, but incremental damage does happen through error largely. Examples: Difficult to see work becomes root cause if phase error between protection in place and start of arc. Ever glance over and see the bright arc? Hard to not do that. Use of marginal protection happens for a ton of reasons. Each flash exposure adds up.
      - germinalphrase 8y ago
        Yep - this largely what I've been told. Incidental flashes and cumulative exposure.
      - ghaff 8y ago
        Yeah, and my experience with welders (used to supervise shipyard jobs on drilling rigs) is that a lot of them are pretty bad with eye protection while using cutting torches as well.
JPKab 8y ago
Brilliant analysis, and accurate. I worked as a builder for a few years, and the social stigma really bothered me. Baby boomers were the worst offenders.
- skookumchuck 8y ago
  On the other hand, there's a stigma to being a programmer: https://www.damemagazine.com/2014/05/23/amazon-killing-my-sex-life/ https://www.damemagazine.com/2014/05/23/amazon-killing-my-se...
  - filoleg 8y ago
    there is no stigma, there is a stereotype, and it is individual's choice whether to live up to it. I don't know a single guy in tech who had trouble getting dates or socializing with people through the fault of anything but their own. There is no stigma against people in tech, there is a stigma against a certain type of person that is easily found in (but not limited to) tech. A lot of people live up to the stereotype though, and that's where the author of the article is coming from. To repeat a saying I heard a lot during my undergrad at a Stem-heavy school that had male-dominated ratio - "The odds are good, but the goods are odd."
    - robocat 8y ago
      > there is no stigma I think there is a stigma. When single I remember the intense look of an interested girl, that switched off at hearing what my job was. However, I also think that is offset by some positive bias towards looking for wrll paid professional partners. The stigma exists. I do think it is fairly easy to avoid its effects (don't be the "undesirable" stereotype). I also think most jobs have a stigma, with negative reactions from some people. If someone only sees you as your job, that is their problem!
      - tstrimple 8y ago
        > When single I remember the intense look of an interested girl, that switched off at hearing what my job was. Maybe try telling her you’re a plumber and seeing what the reaction is as a comparison.
icantdrive55 8y ago
The trick is getting in a good union, like local 6 in San Francisco. You won't run out of job opportunities if your book 1 union. Yes--construction is not a great job. Out if of all the Trades; Electrical is a bit better than the rest. It's less physically taxing. Union Elevator Mechanic might be the best trade? So much depends on your attitude. If you like going to work, sweating, getting dirty, and going home without much worry--in a good union you are making over $100/hr. Listening to some of the guys takes patience, but you will never hear, "It sounds like you have a case of the mondays, or have to listen to some jack arse pontificating in a meeting. Non-union is just aweful. You are better off in retail. If very motivated, use the non-union shop to gain experience, and then get a C-10 contractor's licence. That said, there's only a few cities I would consider working in. Mike Rowe (the t.v. guy who's made himself the ambassador of "working hard". I personally think he is exploiting a bad situation.). goes around as the prince of the Trades. He always yacking about these jobs that go unfilled. Most of these jobs are non-union, in the middle of the rust belt, and are temporary. There's a reason these jobs go unfilled. So if you don't mind getting dirty, ex king up early, being around sweaty guys all day long; keep an eye out for the union admittance test. Some unions have over 1000 people taking the test for a few spots. It's an easy test, but get every question right. The oral interview counts for half. (I was in the union a year. I got a better opportunity, so I left. Looking back--I probally should have finished the apprenticeship, but did not want to turn into my father. I literally saw myself turning into him. Oh yea, watch the drinking. It's ok to come in with a hangover, but heavens forbid marijuana. In all honestly, a lot of guys smoked pot. It's only the bigger job sites that required a drug test. Even then, when I worked at Pacbell park, guys would stop smoking a few weeks before showing up for to the job site, and within a few days they were back to smoking. There was one statistic about working construction that always bothered me. Too many guys were waiting for retirement to really live their lives. They would collect a few retirement checks, and die. A lot of that was probally the wrong diet, and too much drinking? Good luck!
- aphextron 8y ago
  Just looked up the wages for IBEW Local 6, $70/hr for a journeyman electrician sounds incredible even compared to SWE salaries. How long would it take to get to that level from zero trade experience, and how hard is it to get into the union?
squozzer 8y ago
All points agreed with - and I'll add to the sixth. >"Parents want success for their kids," said Mike Clifton, who teaches machining at the Lake Washington Institute of Technology, about 20 miles from Seattle. "They get stuck on [four-year bachelor's degrees], What parents want is to be able to brag on their kids. Which is to say, they want to be able to boast that their kid went to a presigious university and now holds a prestigious job. And the Education-Industrial Complex (tm) has milked that for everything it's worth. Which is trillions of USD. Seventh, the people who work in the trades have a rep as rabidly anti-intellectual, for whom Playboy magazine is "too snooty."
- thaumasiotes 8y ago
  > the people who work in the trades have a rep as rabidly anti-intellectual, for whom Playboy magazine is "too snooty." This is an odd example; Playboy's whole thing was that it featured high-class literary content, so you could read it "for the articles". It was intentionally snooty as a branding choice helping it contrast with, say, Hustler.
  - squozzer 8y ago
    You expounded my point brilliantly. I was thinking of Playboy / Hustler when I made that statement.
- ddingus 8y ago
  This one could be avoided with better norms. "See that awesome building with the cool lights? My kid wired the whole thing, passed code inspection the first time." Frankly, accomplishments like that are worth talking up. We play, live, build, do as we do in relative comfort and safety because of the hard, quality work trades people do. It's like the old saw, "nobody values the plumber, until they do." When they do, they really do. All of us could be messaging to this in basic, affirmative ways. I think it would help. Meta: what is the post limit? I can't seem to interact reasonably. Nothing out of the ordinary, but too fast... ?
gbacon 8y ago
[Comment ignores hairsplitting over whether aviation is a profession or a trade. The point is there are many career options that do not require a college degree.] Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) is rolling out a high-school STEM curriculum[0] for aviation. There are lots of options for aviation careers such as dispatcher, air traffic control, airframe & powerplant mechanic, and of course pilot. A pilot who wants to make captain at one of the major U.S. airlines will want to add a four-year degree somewhere along the way, e.g., as a military officer or as a civilian climbing the ratings ladder. Part 121 is only one segment of the aviation market. The FAA recently changed the required equipment for the commercial-pilot and certificated flight instructor (CFI) checkrides. Candidates for either rating until recently had to provide a complex airplane (retractable landing gear, flaps, and a controllable-pitch propeller). These take more time to train in and hence more expense. [0]: https://youcanfly.aopa.org/high-school/high-school-curriculum https://youcanfly.aopa.org/high-school/high-school-curriculu...
- mediocrejoker 8y ago
  How well does being a pilot pay, eg. entry level and at the 2, 5 and 10 year marks?
  - zaphod12 8y ago
    Enormously depends. Captain at a major airline will earn you a nice 6 figure salary. Copilot at a regional airline is pretty much at the poverty line. Unfortunately that's where you need to start, often.
  - gbacon 8y ago
    Captains at majors can make upwards of $200k or $300k. First officer salaries at regional airlines have come up to start in the skilled trade range, $60k plus. Regional captains make $80k and up. (It used to be awful, $20-30k.) Getting to that point in the Part 121 world takes a lot of training and expense. Candidates for the Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate must have a minimum of 1,500 flight hours. Other commercial flying such as hauling cargo, air taxi, or private charter may require a commercial single or commercial multi certificate with instrument rating. These pay about like the skilled trades too.
sigstoat 8y ago
> Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. After a couple decades of work your body begins to break down, assuming there are no workplace injuries to put you out of commission sooner. the electrician i hire is in better shape than i'll ever be in, despite being about 50. pretty sure he makes about what i do, too. > Third, workplace conditions are on average undesirable. Outdoors in the heat/cold, or indoors in tight spaces or high places. ignoring high rises and installing solar panels, i feel like it isn't much worse than the stuff a lot of folks do on a regular basis to get exercise to make up for all the sitting they do all day, or just recreationally.
- saint_fiasco 8y ago
  That might be survivorship bias, plus in the end it's just anecdotes. What do life/health/disability insurance companies think? They might charge higher prices to people in more dangerous professions, and they have big incentives to get it right.
  - PC_LOAD_LETTER 8y ago
    Great point. Markets are usually honest - if not necessarily always "right" - since that's where the rubber meets the road.
  - GFischer 8y ago
    They do. I used to work on that, and while I don't have access to the list right now, I remember there were differences (not that big though).
- retbull 8y ago
  I've done roofing and it is really hard on your body regardless of the good condition it puts you in. Sure you can lift 200lbs of shingles up a ladder on your shoulders but your ankles ache 100% of the time and your knees start to click. I only did it for a couple of years at 18 and I regret it to this day. I didn't go and work on big projects it was mostly housing but it wasn't safe at all. Also it isn't anywhere similar to going out for a 30 min run in the park. If it is -10 and you have to get a job done because it is technically not raining or snowing you go out and do it for 8 hours. If it is 140 on the roof of a house and you have to walk up and down it with a pick ripping the roof off you do it for 8 hours. Those conditions happened all the time.
bparsons 8y ago
If you are a young person who doesn't come from wealth, it is a good idea to get a skilled trade certificate right out of high school. In many cases you can do it in a year, and have a good job right away. You can do that job to pay (at least partially) your way through university, and if your preferred career is interrupted by economic conditions or some weird life event, you always have something solid to fall back on.
onetimemanytime 8y ago
>>Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. Tougher than sitting in an office chair for 10 hours a day ? But yeah, personally, I'd push my own child to get a degree, as insurance. Life can be quite long and you never know.
- Baeocystin 8y ago
  As someone who has worked as a shipyard welder and a mechanic... Good lord, yes, working most trades are going to be much harder on your body than sitting around. It is not a close comparison.
  - et-al 8y ago
    Not to mention white collar workers have to the luxury of being able to request standing desks, mats, anything for ergonomics. Ask for something like that at a job site and you'd probably get laughed off.
  - NFPA_SysAdmin 8y ago
    It depends, as a technician I was active, mobile, exercised my muscles daily, and was in very good shape. After I got my CS degree, I spent the next year sitting in front of a desk staring at an editor and couldn't stand it. I moved back into the trades and it seemed like the healthier (and better paying) option.
Baeocystin 8y ago
>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. If I remember correctly, the NSA had to drop the marijuana prohibition on hires recently, simply because they were not getting enough applicants.
noddingham 8y ago
>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. From a safety perspective, it makes sense. But for better or worse, marijuana use is becoming more socially accepted while work places (and in particular trade jobs) are lagging behind the times. Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. Perhaps (and I'm granting some leeway here) we don't yet have the tools or the data to understand well enough how something like THC affects motor skills like we do with alcohol, but someday I expect we will. Work places (particularly those with high safety concerns) shouldn't make any sacrifices just because something is socially acceptable. You can't show up drunk, and alcohol is more socially accepted than marijuana.
- squeaky-clean 8y ago
  We don't have accurate ways to test if you're high though. We can only test if you've done it in the past few days/weeks. Fire someone for showing up to work drunk, sure. But would you fire them for a bottle of wine on a Saturday night?
  - gruez 8y ago
    >Fire someone for showing up to work drunk, sure. But would you fire them for a bottle of wine on a Saturday night? If alcohol was like THC (that is, it's impossible to determine whether you drank in the last hour or the last week), I sure as hell don't want people who test positive driving.
  - tkxxx7 8y ago
    This is inaccurate. Oral tests are effective around 8-12 hours from use.
    - StudentStuff 8y ago
      Still too broad a range, smoking some weed at 7pm doesn't necessarily make you unsafe at 7am. Zero tolerance is unrealistic and unnecessary for most jobs that drug test.
pietroglyph 8y ago
>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. From a safety perspective, it makes sense. But for better or worse, marijuana use is becoming more socially accepted while work places (and in particular trade jobs) are lagging behind the times. Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. Marijuana and heavy machinery don't mix well... I can't speak to how long you have to be clean to pass a test, so it's possible that these tests select for people who _never_ use, versus people who got high 30 minutes ago. Even if it's the latter, one could argue that any use means someone could be high at the wrong time. I don't really have enough information on drug use patterns to comment here; perhaps someone else does?
- lowdest 8y ago
  >I can't speak to how long you have to be clean to pass a test Several days at least. Weekend smokers are out.
- throwaway080383 8y ago
  I believe it's on the order of weeks. I don't buy that someone who smoked two weeks ago is liable to get high on the job. If someone drinks on the weekend, should we automatically worry they're liable to operate machinery drunk?
- bengarrr 8y ago
  Nor does alcohol mix well with heavy machinery, but just because someone may drink alcohol at some point in the future doesn't mean they will before they operate deadly machinery. The same would apply to marijuana. A stable considerate employee wouldn't use either substance while performing their duties, so maybe we should be screening for something like mental stability, aptitude for identifying/avoiding high-risk behavior etc. instead of trying to run a catch-all for potential drug users.
- toomanybeersies 8y ago
  Marijuana can be detected in a urine test for 3 days after use for a non-user. If you're a frequent smoker, it can last be detected over a month after your last use. Even longer in hair tests. Obviously being high at work isn't a good thing, but neither is being drunk at work. But you don't get fired for having a few beers on the weekend.
poundtown 8y ago
yes its ironic they show iron workers tying rebar..i did that for a summer in college and i can tell you my forearms have never recovered...:)
1298492137 8y ago
>First, construction in general is a pretty up and down industry. Construction booms don't last forever, and in general you need to 'follow the work'. This is great if you are young, single, and willing to chase the high paying jobs. Not so great if you have a strong desire to stay in one spot. This is worse in software engineering. You are probably in the bay area or some other tech city, but for all the people who live outside of those areas, they have to either move to them or get paid a ridiculously low wage relative to their work. Here in Australia, only those people who want to work in the mines have to go anywhere. All the other trades can not only live wherever they want, they don't have to live near the city. Programmers have to live close to the city and pay the extra in housing because all of the jobs are in the city. >Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. After a couple decades of work your body begins to break down, assuming there are no workplace injuries to put you out of commission sooner. Sitting is worse for your body than most trades. Some trades may be really tough, but the majority are not. Programmers generally look completely out of shape. You talk about "after a few decades", well, I wonder if you have met any older office workers? I work with people in their late 30s and early 40s who have done nothing but office work. Just the other day, we were walking up a large group of stairs to go to a conference and they were all going on about their knees and groaning on pain. I suspect you are confusing people just getting old who don't really look after their body, with a specific effect of a type of job. >Third, workplace conditions are on average undesirable. Outdoors in the heat/cold, or indoors in tight spaces or high places. It's tough sell over companies that glorify bean bag chairs, nap pods, and free beer on hand. This sounds like someone who just hates the outdoors. I have worked in both types of jobs and I absolutely hate being in an air-conditioned office. I hate unnatural air and the lack of sunlight. I also hate beer, and bean bag chairs are terrible for your body. Nap pods, jesus. >Fourth, there's a social stigma around trade skill jobs. This does seem kind of true, but I see people in trades with much prettier girlfriends than most programmers due to the better shape they are in both mentally and physically, and the fact that money is all that counts. Trades outside of tech cities get paid the same or more as programmers. >All of these observations are based off my fathers experience as union based pipe fitter/welder for >30 years. Exactly.
bmj 8y ago
There are other skilled trades. Plumbers and electricians aren't going away until our society devolves to the point of not having indoor plumbing or electricity.

polskibus 8y ago

You missed the advertised by media doom of those jobs by automation and artificial intelligence.

EADGBE 8y ago
Of all the jobs to automate, I see the building trades being replaced last.
- lostlogin 8y ago
  I see early childhood and primary school teaching going later.
  - matte_black 8y ago
    Quick! someone write a short story about AIs who hire a professional human.
- petra 8y ago
  There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, with very little professional work on site. But on the other hand, yesterday we had an article here about visual coding, and according to some it can build very complex application with much higher productivity(and maybe the work becomes accessible to business analysts and domain experts, maybe). So it's hard to tell these days.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    >There's a startup building prefabricated house using robots and cheap labor in a factory, Not my area but various companies have been trying to do this sort of thing forever. I can remember reading stories about partially pre-manufactured modular homes decades ago and it's never panned out. It seems to be one of those ideas that makes a lot of sense on paper but people don't want it.
    - larkost 8y ago
      I grew up in a Sears & Roebuck home, as were a good portion of those on my block. The Wikipedia article on the subject says that there were 70,000 of them built[1]. So I see this as more of something that has come and gone, probably a few times, and we are back on the up-swing. The Sears & Roebuck were partially assembled (think wall by wall), and then those parts were hoisted off the freight trains and nailed together. There was still a lot of work that needed to be done (often by professionals), but it really cut down on the (especially local) costs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Catalog_Home
cathhhhji 8y ago
How do you automate HVAC, plumbing, land scaping, etc. Gonna send a robot into my home and fix things?
- ShabbosGoy 8y ago
  It’s more like you have a smart home with dozens of sensors and IoT devices that will have some self-healing capabilities. Don’t forget the always-on listening device and screen so you can be brainwashed daily.
- sf_rob 8y ago
  Well my dad's construction company is doing a lot more prefab in warehouses which is not only more efficient but removes hazard pay (elevation related). This would not be possible if not for the advances in BIM software.
- delecti 8y ago
  I don't think anyone can guarantee what will or will not be automated in 10 years, let alone the 40+ year span that the average high school graduate can expect their career to last. That said, past trends hint at it being more likely that manual labor positions will be decreasingly lucrative as time goes on.
- adamsea 8y ago
  Gonna send in the nanotechnology ;)
- analog31 8y ago
  Prefab, and technologies that reduce labor. It won't eliminate labor completely, but will reduce demand. My house is full of copper plumbing, all cut and soldered together by hand. The wiring is all in hard conduit. Today, conduit is gone, and plumbers assemble things using flexible tubing and fittings that get squeezed onto the ends (for lack of the correct terminology). I doubt that fixing things will ever provide as much work as construction.
gaius 8y ago
There will be plumbers and hairdressers long after the last lawyer and accountant have been replaced by AI.

EADGBE 8y ago

I like your points. > Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. To me, trade jobs seem to be the most willing to offer a "second chance" to workers willing to work. More so than some white-collar jobs that have a no tolerance drug/crime policy.

protonimitate 8y ago
Yes, failing a drug test for weed is not usually a black mark for trade workers. But a majority of trade workers get bounced around job sites, and are usually required to pass a screen before each one. If you get sent to a job with little notice (can happen within a week), you need to pass a screen. If you fail, you simply don't get hired and have to enter the queue and wait for the next opportunity. Fail enough times and you either get dropped by your union local, or black listed entirely. So messing up a drug screen once or twice doesn't mean you will lose all job opportunities, but it could mean you go without work for 1 week to over a year. And if you are represented by a trade union, you don't have the luxury to apply freely to open positions like you would in the white collar market.
- Spooky23 8y ago
  As an adult you need to choose between a immature desire to smoke weed or abuse alcohol and your work where the health and safety of others is at risk. If you’re lucky enough to get into the union, I doubt you care much about the luxury of making less money.
  - billmalarky 8y ago
    > immature desire to smoke weed or abuse alcohol I find it interesting you equate even light use of marijuana with the abuse of alcohol.
    - Spooky23 8y ago
      Alcohol leaves the body in a few hours. If an employer screening is picking up alchohol, that’s by definition abuse. With respect to marijuana, it’s well known that it is detectable for some period of time. If you’re smoking with full knowledge that you can be randomly screened, you’re demonstrating poor judgment and risk tolerance. I don’t want someone dumb enough to do these things in a position where my health and safety is at risk.

msla 8y ago

Adding onto/tying together the second and third of your points: Some trades will take you to awful places to live and work. For example, if your job takes you into the oil fields, there's a good chance you're going to Bakken, and North Dakota/eastern Montana is just a fundamentally terrible place to be, winter or summer, and the usual boomtown criminality and lack of resources only makes it worse. That's tough on your family, too: Those places don't have good schools. The after-school activities consist of drugs, drinking, and driving under the influence of one or both to get to and from the places you do both or either. There's a reason there's a meth/opioid epidemic in those regions, and it isn't because they have a vibrant social scene with plenty of gathering places you can walk to most of the year. I lived in Havre for ten years, including my high school years, and I have, if anything, understated the problems because Havre isn't nearly as bad as the Bakken region.

matte_black 8y ago

> Fourth, there's a social stigma around trade skill jobs. Blue collar jobs have gained a reputation of being jobs held by slackers or the less fortunate. Unfortunately, wearing workboots carries a stigma that wearing a shirt and tie/'startup' attire doesn't. Tech jobs aren’t free from this anymore. For people in the industry, if all you do is stuff like front end JavaScript work (basically what any boot camp grad does), you’re basically the tech equivalent of a construction worker. Except now, others outside the industry are catching on to this too. The people in tech who get all the prestige are those who are solving real problems or work in more esoteric domains, at least by those who aren’t also blue collar workers themselves. Nothing wrong with it, it’s just the way it is. Prestige won’t last forever.

michaelt 8y ago
The people in tech who get all the prestige are those who are solving real problems or work in more esoteric domains I'm not sure my girlfriend's parents appreciate the difference between me inventing my own Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm and me importing Apache ZooKeeper.

gascan 8y ago

Blue collar jobs have gained a reputation of being jobs held by slackers or the less fortunate. Ironic given that plenty of blue collar professionals can make a lot more than your average worker in many degreed professions. (That's not to say the average blue collar wage is higher) I feel like referencing welding is pretty cliche, but for example: http://profoundlydisconnected.com/welding-is-a-100000-job/ http://profoundlydisconnected.com/welding-is-a-100000-job/

germinalphrase 8y ago
The downside being, of course, that your vision only lasts so long as a welder.
- biggieshellz 8y ago
  Why is that? If you wear your PPE (helmet with appropriate shade while welding, face shield while grinding), I would think you would be protected.
  - ddingus 8y ago
    You largely are, but incremental damage does happen through error largely. Examples: Difficult to see work becomes root cause if phase error between protection in place and start of arc. Ever glance over and see the bright arc? Hard to not do that. Use of marginal protection happens for a ton of reasons. Each flash exposure adds up.
    - germinalphrase 8y ago
      Yep - this largely what I've been told. Incidental flashes and cumulative exposure.
    - ghaff 8y ago
      Yeah, and my experience with welders (used to supervise shipyard jobs on drilling rigs) is that a lot of them are pretty bad with eye protection while using cutting torches as well.

JPKab 8y ago

Brilliant analysis, and accurate. I worked as a builder for a few years, and the social stigma really bothered me. Baby boomers were the worst offenders.

skookumchuck 8y ago
On the other hand, there's a stigma to being a programmer: https://www.damemagazine.com/2014/05/23/amazon-killing-my-sex-life/ https://www.damemagazine.com/2014/05/23/amazon-killing-my-se...
- filoleg 8y ago
  there is no stigma, there is a stereotype, and it is individual's choice whether to live up to it. I don't know a single guy in tech who had trouble getting dates or socializing with people through the fault of anything but their own. There is no stigma against people in tech, there is a stigma against a certain type of person that is easily found in (but not limited to) tech. A lot of people live up to the stereotype though, and that's where the author of the article is coming from. To repeat a saying I heard a lot during my undergrad at a Stem-heavy school that had male-dominated ratio - "The odds are good, but the goods are odd."
  - robocat 8y ago
    > there is no stigma I think there is a stigma. When single I remember the intense look of an interested girl, that switched off at hearing what my job was. However, I also think that is offset by some positive bias towards looking for wrll paid professional partners. The stigma exists. I do think it is fairly easy to avoid its effects (don't be the "undesirable" stereotype). I also think most jobs have a stigma, with negative reactions from some people. If someone only sees you as your job, that is their problem!
    - tstrimple 8y ago
      > When single I remember the intense look of an interested girl, that switched off at hearing what my job was. Maybe try telling her you’re a plumber and seeing what the reaction is as a comparison.

icantdrive55 8y ago

The trick is getting in a good union, like local 6 in San Francisco. You won't run out of job opportunities if your book 1 union. Yes--construction is not a great job. Out if of all the Trades; Electrical is a bit better than the rest. It's less physically taxing. Union Elevator Mechanic might be the best trade? So much depends on your attitude. If you like going to work, sweating, getting dirty, and going home without much worry--in a good union you are making over $100/hr. Listening to some of the guys takes patience, but you will never hear, "It sounds like you have a case of the mondays, or have to listen to some jack arse pontificating in a meeting. Non-union is just aweful. You are better off in retail. If very motivated, use the non-union shop to gain experience, and then get a C-10 contractor's licence. That said, there's only a few cities I would consider working in. Mike Rowe (the t.v. guy who's made himself the ambassador of "working hard". I personally think he is exploiting a bad situation.). goes around as the prince of the Trades. He always yacking about these jobs that go unfilled. Most of these jobs are non-union, in the middle of the rust belt, and are temporary. There's a reason these jobs go unfilled. So if you don't mind getting dirty, ex king up early, being around sweaty guys all day long; keep an eye out for the union admittance test. Some unions have over 1000 people taking the test for a few spots. It's an easy test, but get every question right. The oral interview counts for half. (I was in the union a year. I got a better opportunity, so I left. Looking back--I probally should have finished the apprenticeship, but did not want to turn into my father. I literally saw myself turning into him. Oh yea, watch the drinking. It's ok to come in with a hangover, but heavens forbid marijuana. In all honestly, a lot of guys smoked pot. It's only the bigger job sites that required a drug test. Even then, when I worked at Pacbell park, guys would stop smoking a few weeks before showing up for to the job site, and within a few days they were back to smoking. There was one statistic about working construction that always bothered me. Too many guys were waiting for retirement to really live their lives. They would collect a few retirement checks, and die. A lot of that was probally the wrong diet, and too much drinking? Good luck!

aphextron 8y ago
Just looked up the wages for IBEW Local 6, $70/hr for a journeyman electrician sounds incredible even compared to SWE salaries. How long would it take to get to that level from zero trade experience, and how hard is it to get into the union?

squozzer 8y ago

All points agreed with - and I'll add to the sixth. >"Parents want success for their kids," said Mike Clifton, who teaches machining at the Lake Washington Institute of Technology, about 20 miles from Seattle. "They get stuck on [four-year bachelor's degrees], What parents want is to be able to brag on their kids. Which is to say, they want to be able to boast that their kid went to a presigious university and now holds a prestigious job. And the Education-Industrial Complex (tm) has milked that for everything it's worth. Which is trillions of USD. Seventh, the people who work in the trades have a rep as rabidly anti-intellectual, for whom Playboy magazine is "too snooty."

thaumasiotes 8y ago
> the people who work in the trades have a rep as rabidly anti-intellectual, for whom Playboy magazine is "too snooty." This is an odd example; Playboy's whole thing was that it featured high-class literary content, so you could read it "for the articles". It was intentionally snooty as a branding choice helping it contrast with, say, Hustler.
- squozzer 8y ago
  You expounded my point brilliantly. I was thinking of Playboy / Hustler when I made that statement.
ddingus 8y ago
This one could be avoided with better norms. "See that awesome building with the cool lights? My kid wired the whole thing, passed code inspection the first time." Frankly, accomplishments like that are worth talking up. We play, live, build, do as we do in relative comfort and safety because of the hard, quality work trades people do. It's like the old saw, "nobody values the plumber, until they do." When they do, they really do. All of us could be messaging to this in basic, affirmative ways. I think it would help. Meta: what is the post limit? I can't seem to interact reasonably. Nothing out of the ordinary, but too fast... ?

gbacon 8y ago

[Comment ignores hairsplitting over whether aviation is a profession or a trade. The point is there are many career options that do not require a college degree.] Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) is rolling out a high-school STEM curriculum[0] for aviation. There are lots of options for aviation careers such as dispatcher, air traffic control, airframe & powerplant mechanic, and of course pilot. A pilot who wants to make captain at one of the major U.S. airlines will want to add a four-year degree somewhere along the way, e.g., as a military officer or as a civilian climbing the ratings ladder. Part 121 is only one segment of the aviation market. The FAA recently changed the required equipment for the commercial-pilot and certificated flight instructor (CFI) checkrides. Candidates for either rating until recently had to provide a complex airplane (retractable landing gear, flaps, and a controllable-pitch propeller). These take more time to train in and hence more expense. [0]: https://youcanfly.aopa.org/high-school/high-school-curriculum https://youcanfly.aopa.org/high-school/high-school-curriculu...

mediocrejoker 8y ago
How well does being a pilot pay, eg. entry level and at the 2, 5 and 10 year marks?
- zaphod12 8y ago
  Enormously depends. Captain at a major airline will earn you a nice 6 figure salary. Copilot at a regional airline is pretty much at the poverty line. Unfortunately that's where you need to start, often.
- gbacon 8y ago
  Captains at majors can make upwards of $200k or $300k. First officer salaries at regional airlines have come up to start in the skilled trade range, $60k plus. Regional captains make $80k and up. (It used to be awful, $20-30k.) Getting to that point in the Part 121 world takes a lot of training and expense. Candidates for the Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate must have a minimum of 1,500 flight hours. Other commercial flying such as hauling cargo, air taxi, or private charter may require a commercial single or commercial multi certificate with instrument rating. These pay about like the skilled trades too.

sigstoat 8y ago

> Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. After a couple decades of work your body begins to break down, assuming there are no workplace injuries to put you out of commission sooner. the electrician i hire is in better shape than i'll ever be in, despite being about 50. pretty sure he makes about what i do, too. > Third, workplace conditions are on average undesirable. Outdoors in the heat/cold, or indoors in tight spaces or high places. ignoring high rises and installing solar panels, i feel like it isn't much worse than the stuff a lot of folks do on a regular basis to get exercise to make up for all the sitting they do all day, or just recreationally.

saint_fiasco 8y ago
That might be survivorship bias, plus in the end it's just anecdotes. What do life/health/disability insurance companies think? They might charge higher prices to people in more dangerous professions, and they have big incentives to get it right.
- PC_LOAD_LETTER 8y ago
  Great point. Markets are usually honest - if not necessarily always "right" - since that's where the rubber meets the road.
- GFischer 8y ago
  They do. I used to work on that, and while I don't have access to the list right now, I remember there were differences (not that big though).
retbull 8y ago
I've done roofing and it is really hard on your body regardless of the good condition it puts you in. Sure you can lift 200lbs of shingles up a ladder on your shoulders but your ankles ache 100% of the time and your knees start to click. I only did it for a couple of years at 18 and I regret it to this day. I didn't go and work on big projects it was mostly housing but it wasn't safe at all. Also it isn't anywhere similar to going out for a 30 min run in the park. If it is -10 and you have to get a job done because it is technically not raining or snowing you go out and do it for 8 hours. If it is 140 on the roof of a house and you have to walk up and down it with a pick ripping the roof off you do it for 8 hours. Those conditions happened all the time.

bparsons 8y ago

If you are a young person who doesn't come from wealth, it is a good idea to get a skilled trade certificate right out of high school. In many cases you can do it in a year, and have a good job right away. You can do that job to pay (at least partially) your way through university, and if your preferred career is interrupted by economic conditions or some weird life event, you always have something solid to fall back on.

onetimemanytime 8y ago

>>Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. Tougher than sitting in an office chair for 10 hours a day ? But yeah, personally, I'd push my own child to get a degree, as insurance. Life can be quite long and you never know.

Baeocystin 8y ago
As someone who has worked as a shipyard welder and a mechanic... Good lord, yes, working most trades are going to be much harder on your body than sitting around. It is not a close comparison.
- et-al 8y ago
  Not to mention white collar workers have to the luxury of being able to request standing desks, mats, anything for ergonomics. Ask for something like that at a job site and you'd probably get laughed off.
- NFPA_SysAdmin 8y ago
  It depends, as a technician I was active, mobile, exercised my muscles daily, and was in very good shape. After I got my CS degree, I spent the next year sitting in front of a desk staring at an editor and couldn't stand it. I moved back into the trades and it seemed like the healthier (and better paying) option.

Baeocystin 8y ago

>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. If I remember correctly, the NSA had to drop the marijuana prohibition on hires recently, simply because they were not getting enough applicants.

noddingham 8y ago

>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. From a safety perspective, it makes sense. But for better or worse, marijuana use is becoming more socially accepted while work places (and in particular trade jobs) are lagging behind the times. Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. Perhaps (and I'm granting some leeway here) we don't yet have the tools or the data to understand well enough how something like THC affects motor skills like we do with alcohol, but someday I expect we will. Work places (particularly those with high safety concerns) shouldn't make any sacrifices just because something is socially acceptable. You can't show up drunk, and alcohol is more socially accepted than marijuana.

squeaky-clean 8y ago
We don't have accurate ways to test if you're high though. We can only test if you've done it in the past few days/weeks. Fire someone for showing up to work drunk, sure. But would you fire them for a bottle of wine on a Saturday night?
- gruez 8y ago
  >Fire someone for showing up to work drunk, sure. But would you fire them for a bottle of wine on a Saturday night? If alcohol was like THC (that is, it's impossible to determine whether you drank in the last hour or the last week), I sure as hell don't want people who test positive driving.
- tkxxx7 8y ago
  This is inaccurate. Oral tests are effective around 8-12 hours from use.
  - StudentStuff 8y ago
    Still too broad a range, smoking some weed at 7pm doesn't necessarily make you unsafe at 7am. Zero tolerance is unrealistic and unnecessary for most jobs that drug test.

pietroglyph 8y ago

>Fifth, and this one may seem like a silly reason to most, the drug testing (for marijuana specifically) is a huge barrier of entry. From a safety perspective, it makes sense. But for better or worse, marijuana use is becoming more socially accepted while work places (and in particular trade jobs) are lagging behind the times. Removing a marijuana screen from standard workplace testing would help revitalize the employee pool. Marijuana and heavy machinery don't mix well... I can't speak to how long you have to be clean to pass a test, so it's possible that these tests select for people who _never_ use, versus people who got high 30 minutes ago. Even if it's the latter, one could argue that any use means someone could be high at the wrong time. I don't really have enough information on drug use patterns to comment here; perhaps someone else does?

lowdest 8y ago
>I can't speak to how long you have to be clean to pass a test Several days at least. Weekend smokers are out.
throwaway080383 8y ago
I believe it's on the order of weeks. I don't buy that someone who smoked two weeks ago is liable to get high on the job. If someone drinks on the weekend, should we automatically worry they're liable to operate machinery drunk?
bengarrr 8y ago
Nor does alcohol mix well with heavy machinery, but just because someone may drink alcohol at some point in the future doesn't mean they will before they operate deadly machinery. The same would apply to marijuana. A stable considerate employee wouldn't use either substance while performing their duties, so maybe we should be screening for something like mental stability, aptitude for identifying/avoiding high-risk behavior etc. instead of trying to run a catch-all for potential drug users.
toomanybeersies 8y ago
Marijuana can be detected in a urine test for 3 days after use for a non-user. If you're a frequent smoker, it can last be detected over a month after your last use. Even longer in hair tests. Obviously being high at work isn't a good thing, but neither is being drunk at work. But you don't get fired for having a few beers on the weekend.

poundtown 8y ago

yes its ironic they show iron workers tying rebar..i did that for a summer in college and i can tell you my forearms have never recovered...:)

1298492137 8y ago

>First, construction in general is a pretty up and down industry. Construction booms don't last forever, and in general you need to 'follow the work'. This is great if you are young, single, and willing to chase the high paying jobs. Not so great if you have a strong desire to stay in one spot. This is worse in software engineering. You are probably in the bay area or some other tech city, but for all the people who live outside of those areas, they have to either move to them or get paid a ridiculously low wage relative to their work. Here in Australia, only those people who want to work in the mines have to go anywhere. All the other trades can not only live wherever they want, they don't have to live near the city. Programmers have to live close to the city and pay the extra in housing because all of the jobs are in the city. >Second, trade jobs are usually pretty tough on the body. After a couple decades of work your body begins to break down, assuming there are no workplace injuries to put you out of commission sooner. Sitting is worse for your body than most trades. Some trades may be really tough, but the majority are not. Programmers generally look completely out of shape. You talk about "after a few decades", well, I wonder if you have met any older office workers? I work with people in their late 30s and early 40s who have done nothing but office work. Just the other day, we were walking up a large group of stairs to go to a conference and they were all going on about their knees and groaning on pain. I suspect you are confusing people just getting old who don't really look after their body, with a specific effect of a type of job. >Third, workplace conditions are on average undesirable. Outdoors in the heat/cold, or indoors in tight spaces or high places. It's tough sell over companies that glorify bean bag chairs, nap pods, and free beer on hand. This sounds like someone who just hates the outdoors. I have worked in both types of jobs and I absolutely hate being in an air-conditioned office. I hate unnatural air and the lack of sunlight. I also hate beer, and bean bag chairs are terrible for your body. Nap pods, jesus. >Fourth, there's a social stigma around trade skill jobs. This does seem kind of true, but I see people in trades with much prettier girlfriends than most programmers due to the better shape they are in both mentally and physically, and the fact that money is all that counts. Trades outside of tech cities get paid the same or more as programmers. >All of these observations are based off my fathers experience as union based pipe fitter/welder for >30 years. Exactly.

bmj 8y ago

There are other skilled trades. Plumbers and electricians aren't going away until our society devolves to the point of not having indoor plumbing or electricity.