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I got in at ~$12 two years ago, was down 26% for most of that (I'm long, and don't care much for intra-day volatility). I hope it will crawl back up, but I'm in
by anon1253 8y ago
I got in at ~$12 two years ago, was down 26% for most of that (I'm long, and don't care much for intra-day volatility). I hope it will crawl back up, but I'm increasingly bearish on this one.
Without investors pouring money in it, the R&D will stall and that's not something they can sustain. One of the few reasons they haven't been bought yet is because that will invalidate their license sharing with Intel. So I guess the other strategy is to simply bleed them dry. I mean just think about it. They build GPUs, just like NVidia. They build CPUs, just like Intel. They have their own fabrication process, logistics, research, the whole thing. Their chips don't perform much worse, even better in the mid-range tier. Yet AMD is valued at 9, instead of like 5x or even 10x as much. The people with the money are holding a grudge or something, and I can't see them keeping it up for much longer.
- noitsnot 8y agoI'm not sure how you can value it at 5 or 10 times when earnings have been in the red since at least 2014. Also, Intel made $10 billion profit each of those years.
- azinman2 8y agoBut hasn’t it been that way for many, many years now?
- anon1253 8y agoYes, but I was being naive and thought the Vega/Epyc/ThreadRipper stuff with the Intel Specter/Meltdown and crypto craze would help them more. I know my next machine will be an AMD one, if only just for wishful thinking
- vel0city 8y agoAMD does not have its own fabrication process. They spun off their fabrication business as GlobalFoundries in 2009.
- rasz 8y agoinvalidation of license sharing with Intel would mean no more 64bit x86 Intel processors - not going to happen
- ken47 8y agoWithout investors pouring money in it, the R&D will stall and that's not something they can sustain. - AMD has a superior multicore manufacturing process to its competition. They are able to glue multiple die together to form their high-core chips. Others try to stuff as many cores as possible onto a single die. The problem is that the failure rate during fabrication increases exponentially in the number of cores in a die. Through this innovation, AMD has much lower costs when manufacturing many-core chips. - EPYC has some serious advantages over its main competitor -- 128 PCI-E lanes, and comparable performance on other dimensions, at a lower cost. - AMD APU's are not something that Nvidia can compete with. The fact that AMD can manufacture both CPU's and GPU's gives them a huge advantage over Nvidia in this space. In other words, AMD already has a couple of nice moats. It's not like if they don't come up with a breakthrough within a year, they're screwed.