4 ms·

Population growth is an S-curve, not an exponential. Fertility rates will stabilize once developing nations catch up with the rest of the world.

• dredmorbius 8y ago
  Sigmoid is one option. Overshoot/crash another. And, in the short term, exponential may be a reasonable fit. Doesn't make it a long-term guarantee.
  • jbond23 8y ago
    For the last 5 decades or so we've been stuck on linear growth. ~ +80m/yr, 12-14 years per +1b. That looks like it might be the middle straight line part of a sigmoid curve that started exponential and transitioned to linear. There's no real evidence yet in the stats for the next transition to a drop in the absolute growth numbers per year.
    • davvolun 8y ago
      Just to be clear, who is "we" in that? I'm assuming it's "people living in industrialized nations," but if it's just "humans," then that seems like it could be misleading -- linear growth internationally with exponential births/deaths (net effect -- linear) in undeveloped nations, combined with scarce essential resources is already a severe problem, leading to global strife.
      • dredmorbius 8y ago
        "We" is global human population growth. Trend is no longer exponential, since ~1970, but it is still growing linearly. UN historical & projected data: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/1_Demographic%20Profiles/World/Line%20Charts/Total%20Population%20by%20variant.png https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/1_Demographic%20Profiles/... https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/ https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/