What to you seems wrong with that extrapolation? As there's no real precedent to look at for cryptocurrencies, all we have at the moment is their short history

What to you seems wrong with that extrapolation? As there's no real precedent to look at for cryptocurrencies, all we have at the moment is their short history to adjust our beliefs with. Is there some other view on the fundamentals of cryptos that you're incorporating in your thought process? For a more pragmatic look on Bitcoin which i've been using see www.alfaquotes.com, they calculate fundamental value by dividing total cost of hardware and power needed to mine 6 months worth of bitcoin by the amount mined, so just the cost basis for miners. I agree that Bitcoin has been superseded feature-wise by other cryptos, but seems to be a functioning e-gold right now.