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The US car industry has made that mistake multiple times. But, even when gas prices were climbing, Ford made most of their profits on trucks. They kinda own th
by SwellJoe 9y ago
The US car industry has made that mistake multiple times.
But, even when gas prices were climbing, Ford made most of their profits on trucks. They kinda own the US truck market, making about a third of all trucks sold (as I recall, anyway), and more than any other make, by far. I don't know what it is in the international market, but I think Ford trucks are strong in a lot of other markets, too.
I don't know that you're wrong, but I am holding some F lately (mostly because it went on sale on disappointing earnings last quarter), so I kinda think that in the short term it's a good move. The writing has been on the wall for a while about this move, though it's more dramatic than I expected. I thought they'd drop to a lineup of four cars, instead of just two.
They have begun focusing on hybrid and electric drive trains for their trucks, and they already have probably the best economy option in pickups with the EcoBoost 6 cylinder that tows like a big V8 (an F150 with EcoBoost and tow package has a tow capacity similar to my older diesel F250), and gets car-like MPG. So, it's not that they're ignoring efficiency, it's just that they're acknowledging that American consumers like big-ass vehicles for their big asses to ride around in (I make fun of American consumer culture and its dumb choices, but I have an F250 for towing my house, so I'm included in that demographic).
So...it could play out like the 70s and early 80s did, but I'm not so sure it will. I think we're going to see car makers take a beating on other fronts, but I dunno exactly how it'll play out. Fewer young people are buying cars and more are opting for transit and Lyft/Uber. More young people are moving to cities where that's a feasible lifestyle choice. So, the pool of people buying cars is looking like it's gonna shrink. Cars are lasting longer, too, and quality has gotten pretty good across the board. So, cars made today might make it through to the end of car ownership as we know it. Again, I don't know how it'll change exactly, but it's looking like fleets of self-driving cars owned by Lyft/Uber/Tesla/GM/etc. are gonna replace a lot of current car ownership within the next decade.
One other point about trucks: People outside of cities buy trucks at a much higher rate. Vehicle ownership in rural areas is still very, very, high, by necessity, due to no mass transit and inconvenience and expense of ride sharing services when the trips are very long and far out. So, Ford may just be acknowledging that city driving by individuals is on the way out, while we have a few more years with a solid rural truck market.
- walshemj 9y agoPresumably Ford could repurpose their European models quickly.
- dzhiurgis 9y agoMy impression about inefficient cars in america is that people are mostly inconvienced about frequent visit to gas station, not actual costs.
- tzs 9y agoI believe I've read that when gas prices fall, US car sales almost immediately noticeably shift toward cars with lower gas mileage, and when gas prices rise, sales almost immediately shift to cars with better gas mileage. I think that shows that gas price is a significant factor in car buying decisions. (It also says some unflattering things about the rationality of buyers that they let short term price variations greatly influence buying an expensive item they will be using for years).
- caf 9y ago(It also says some unflattering things about the rationality of buyers that they let short term price variations greatly influence buying an expensive item they will be using for years). I don't know - at least for those without any specialist knowledge, retail fuel prices can likely best be approximated as a random walk, for which the best estimate of future value is the current value.