5 ms·
So, basically you are saying that it's all gambling and nobody has a better strategy / better information than everybody else. Some are just lucky and it is all
by dorgo 9y ago
So, basically you are saying that it's all gambling and nobody has a better strategy / better information than everybody else. Some are just lucky and it is all because of the survival bias.
I agree with you in that it is a possible explanation, but I disagree in that it is the only one possible.
- PeterisP 9y agoI feel that what he's saying is that it's hard to tell if somebody actually has a working strategy or it's just gambling, they can be nearly indistinguishable, and (given the number of people) someone showing a streak of successes is really not much evidence that it's something beyond luck. They may have something, but since you can't determine if it's so and there is a lot of just gambling, then most likely it's that.
- Retric 9y agoThat's part, but the reverse is also true. Someone could lose money and still have better odds than normal. Something like skill adds 5% then luck adds or removes 30%.
- noobly 9y agoI didn’t gather that from what he said at all, personally. I interpreted his comment at face value; it is possible to pull a profit over an arbitrary period of time even with 50/50 odds.