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I've been observing the space since before Eth launched. If you believe that raffles are an example of useful systems, then we'll have to disagree. In fact the

I've been observing the space since before Eth launched. If you believe that raffles are an example of useful systems, then we'll have to disagree. In fact there are thousands of good use cases. If there are, then we'll surely see them. You're providing more of what I'm talking about - it's always next year, always coming, but the mainstream adoption is nascent.

mst 8y ago
While I suspect that in the long run blockchains will absolutely end up finding some niches where they're persistently used, I do agree that a lot of the broader claims remind me a lot of "next year will be the year of linux on the desktop".
- kirillseva 8y ago
  Fast forward to 2018, and we have Windows Subsystem for Linux, and a very popular BSD in silver aluminum cases made by a fruit company, dominate the desktop market. You could say that the year of linux on desktop is today (in some perverse modified form, but nonetheless).
  - mst 8y ago
    That's actually a really good point (especially if one includes Android) - but "20 years later than we hoped, in a completely different form than expected" is significantly what I was trying to handwave at.
ericb 8y ago
The web was nearly useless and mainly business card style web pages from 94-98 even though the building blocks were available.
- Sangermaine 8y ago
  1. The web was already used for all sorts of things in that period. Geocities was a wonderful open world; I have fond memories of Simpsons and X-Files fan webrings. Not to mention services like ebay, Amazon, or Craigslist arose during that period. 2. Even if we accept your statement as true, the world wide web became generally available in 1991. Blockchain technology has now been around for a decade. The web certainly showed its practical usefulness in its first 10 years, yet blockchain remains largely in the realm of hype.
  - fastball 8y ago
    "Blockchain technology" is a misnomer because different projects require different technologies and concepts. Ethereum was the first blockchain with smart contracts and it only went live in July 2015...
    - Sangermaine 8y ago
      And was immediately and irredeemably invalidated in May 2016 with the DAO fiasco, yes.
      - kirillseva 8y ago
        Ethereum Classic lives on, feel free to support it with money/code if you feel so strongly about immutability at all costs
  - nrhk 8y ago
    Yea but where was the web in 1981 or Arpanet in 1969. Bitcoin was just an idea in 2008, didn't gain any real significance until 2013 where it really started to enter mainstream consciousness. If we want to compare it to the web we're still far away from 1991 in terms of tech.
- pavlov 8y ago
  That's just not true. The 1996 web already had news, porn, and forums — the same things people use it for today. Those things were a bit slow to access over dial-up (porn in particular), but millions of people were using the web daily by the time Netscape IPO'ed. There's no similar moment in sight for Ethereum's hypothetical "Web 3.0".
  - ericb 8y ago
    I'm claiming that the realized potential was maybe 1/100th of what we have today. Perhaps I should have left 98 out, but the idea stands. And that's after the component parts had been around for years: https://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html https://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html
fastball 8y ago
Any comment on MakerDAO + DAI[1]? I think it's an incredible project / feat of engineering and would be interested to hear how you think it's just a toy that doesn't serve a good purpose. Whether or not you "believe" raffles/lotteries to be a useful system does not change the fact that it was a system with a $280BN market cap in 2015. Lotteries on a blockchain with smart contracts solve three problems with traditional lotteries: transparency (provable fairness), easy and secure participation, easy and secure disbursement. We'll surely see them. Yes! You can see them right now. There are thousands of DApps, at different stages of development[2]. 1: https://makerdao.com/ https://makerdao.com/ 2: https://www.stateofthedapps.com/ https://www.stateofthedapps.com/
- aaron-lebo 8y ago
  It's another instrument (like lotteries) whose main value is to make money for the founders. That has a use, yes, but if you're outside of that system I'm not sure the mainstream value is that great. I can tell you that the team is the least diverse (not just race/gender but in age/possible life experience) I've ever seen, which doesn't bode well. How different can their perspectives be? https://makerdao.com/team/ https://makerdao.com/team/ The vast majority of those apps are cheap moneymaking schemes. Again, they have a place, but I'll very much take a wait and see approach, which I believe is realistic and more than warranted.
  - chamza 8y ago
    Dai is a stable cryptocurrency, not a speculative money making scheme, since it's purpose is to be stable. A decentralized stablecoin is an enormous use case.
  - tuesdayrain 8y ago
    I'm not seeing why race/gender/age are relevant. These are all superficially diverse things that don't actually say anything about diversity of perspectives, unless you believe that people who belong to the same group also have similar thoughts.
- s73v3r_ 8y ago

mst 8y ago

While I suspect that in the long run blockchains will absolutely end up finding some niches where they're persistently used, I do agree that a lot of the broader claims remind me a lot of "next year will be the year of linux on the desktop".

kirillseva 8y ago
Fast forward to 2018, and we have Windows Subsystem for Linux, and a very popular BSD in silver aluminum cases made by a fruit company, dominate the desktop market. You could say that the year of linux on desktop is today (in some perverse modified form, but nonetheless).
- mst 8y ago
  That's actually a really good point (especially if one includes Android) - but "20 years later than we hoped, in a completely different form than expected" is significantly what I was trying to handwave at.

ericb 8y ago

The web was nearly useless and mainly business card style web pages from 94-98 even though the building blocks were available.

Sangermaine 8y ago
1. The web was already used for all sorts of things in that period. Geocities was a wonderful open world; I have fond memories of Simpsons and X-Files fan webrings. Not to mention services like ebay, Amazon, or Craigslist arose during that period. 2. Even if we accept your statement as true, the world wide web became generally available in 1991. Blockchain technology has now been around for a decade. The web certainly showed its practical usefulness in its first 10 years, yet blockchain remains largely in the realm of hype.
- fastball 8y ago
  "Blockchain technology" is a misnomer because different projects require different technologies and concepts. Ethereum was the first blockchain with smart contracts and it only went live in July 2015...
  - Sangermaine 8y ago
    And was immediately and irredeemably invalidated in May 2016 with the DAO fiasco, yes.
    - kirillseva 8y ago
      Ethereum Classic lives on, feel free to support it with money/code if you feel so strongly about immutability at all costs
- nrhk 8y ago
  Yea but where was the web in 1981 or Arpanet in 1969. Bitcoin was just an idea in 2008, didn't gain any real significance until 2013 where it really started to enter mainstream consciousness. If we want to compare it to the web we're still far away from 1991 in terms of tech.
pavlov 8y ago
That's just not true. The 1996 web already had news, porn, and forums — the same things people use it for today. Those things were a bit slow to access over dial-up (porn in particular), but millions of people were using the web daily by the time Netscape IPO'ed. There's no similar moment in sight for Ethereum's hypothetical "Web 3.0".
- ericb 8y ago
  I'm claiming that the realized potential was maybe 1/100th of what we have today. Perhaps I should have left 98 out, but the idea stands. And that's after the component parts had been around for years: https://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html https://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html

fastball 8y ago

Any comment on MakerDAO + DAI[1]? I think it's an incredible project / feat of engineering and would be interested to hear how you think it's just a toy that doesn't serve a good purpose. Whether or not you "believe" raffles/lotteries to be a useful system does not change the fact that it was a system with a $280BN market cap in 2015. Lotteries on a blockchain with smart contracts solve three problems with traditional lotteries: transparency (provable fairness), easy and secure participation, easy and secure disbursement. We'll surely see them. Yes! You can see them right now. There are thousands of DApps, at different stages of development[2]. 1: https://makerdao.com/ https://makerdao.com/ 2: https://www.stateofthedapps.com/ https://www.stateofthedapps.com/

aaron-lebo 8y ago
It's another instrument (like lotteries) whose main value is to make money for the founders. That has a use, yes, but if you're outside of that system I'm not sure the mainstream value is that great. I can tell you that the team is the least diverse (not just race/gender but in age/possible life experience) I've ever seen, which doesn't bode well. How different can their perspectives be? https://makerdao.com/team/ https://makerdao.com/team/ The vast majority of those apps are cheap moneymaking schemes. Again, they have a place, but I'll very much take a wait and see approach, which I believe is realistic and more than warranted.
- chamza 8y ago
  Dai is a stable cryptocurrency, not a speculative money making scheme, since it's purpose is to be stable. A decentralized stablecoin is an enormous use case.
- tuesdayrain 8y ago
  I'm not seeing why race/gender/age are relevant. These are all superficially diverse things that don't actually say anything about diversity of perspectives, unless you believe that people who belong to the same group also have similar thoughts.
s73v3r_ 8y ago