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> Fewer and fewer careers offer a stable path to the financial and personal security that underwrote the Baby Boomers’ “American Dream.” Technology is the one

> Fewer and fewer careers offer a stable path to the financial and personal security that underwrote the Baby Boomers’ “American Dream.” Technology is the one career that has an optimistic future, isn’t beholden by regulation and credential inflation, and actually attempts to create some sort of meritocracy, and so, those that are fortunate enough to be in it want to preserve the one island of paradise left. This really resonated with me, for a number of reasons. Primarily, it's because I am hyper aware of how delicate this "tech boom" really is. The good times will end, and I believe they will end sooner than most believe. I was layed off once before because the company I worked for outsourced their entire engineering department. That was a quick lesson for me early in my career that you are EASILY replaced. There are people in India, China, the Ukraine, you name it... who will do your job for half the cost. There is an enormous, GLOBAL, influx of software engineers that is rapidly diluting the worker pool and is quickly reducing the implicit bargaining power that we've enjoyed for the last 10 years. Big "thanks" to all the initiatives by well meaning, but naïve, individuals and organizations who want to "spread the wealth" without realizing that the wealth is already spread very thin, and is being spread thinner, and thinner, every day by mechanisms outside of our control (cost of living, housing, taxes, etc.). I am trying my best to save, but somehow the cost of merely existing seems to increase month over month. I don't have kids, can't afford them. I don't have a car payment, I bought a junker. I have minimized my expenses down to the bare necessity and even then coming up with the down payment for a home is going to take years. At my age, my parents were already on to their second home. My wife has enormous student loans that cripple her ability to save so even our dual income seems weak in this environment. So what can you do? I'm starting a business in my after-hours and weekends, desperately trying to establish a source of low-overhead income. I'm specializing within my field, attempting to learn new skills in a niché programming field that can't be easily learned by bootcamps and YouTube videos. Above all, I'm remembering that right now things are good. This is the calm before the storm.

jeffreyrogers 9y ago
Tech has a natural moat in that only a small portion of the population is smart and driven enough to do well in it, so I expect decent paying jobs for the foreseeable future. And while some of high profile startups might have unviable business models, most of the established companies actually have pretty good metrics, so I don't seem them as being in danger of going out of business unless some legislation comes along that completely undermines their ability to do business. Obviously it's still smart to save and plan for a period of unemployment though.
- ForHackernews 9y ago
  There's a lot of people on this rock. Even if only a "small portion of the population" can do the work, that means there are tens of millions (literally) around the world who could do your job as well or better than you. You are the lucky beneficiary of restrictive immigration and employment policies.
  - 21 9y ago
    There are places with less restrictive immigration (Europe) and salaries are still very high. The supply of decent programmers is just not enough to cover demand.
    - ElysianEagle 9y ago
      It's my understanding that all the countries in Europe where salaries for software engineers are high, have rather strict immigration policies.
      - 21 9y ago
        1. Other EU citizens can basically move around freely, from poor paying countries (Eastern Europe) to good paying ones. 2. Even for non-EU citizens, it's way way easier to get a software job (the company can get a visa for you). There is no H1B style cap. If you get an offer, you get the visa & job. True, for the first few years the visa might be tied to the job, but this just means that you need to have a new offer before leaving the previous job.
    - redundo_twa 9y ago
      > salaries are still very high Much less so than in the US, though. To be honest I think that's more an effect of different cultural values ("novelty" and "bootstrapping" here are not as celebrated as in the US), but there is definitely a difference.
    - xxpor 9y ago
      Salaries are not high in Europe compared to the US.
Spooky23 9y ago
Tech is not a meritocracy. Many of us like to think of it that way, but the reality is that most of the jobs associated with tech are bullshit, and much of tech headcount is IT. The last big place that I worked could easily cut tech headcount in half and hardly notice. A decade from now they can probably reduce headcount 80% in IT and 75% in the business. The impact of global growth won’t impact jobs directly for awhile. When Chinese companies start pumping out superior product that westerners cannot even read the manuals for, that will be the big crack.
- rubicon33 9y ago
  > The impact of global growth won’t impact jobs directly for awhile. That's a definitive statement that is more nuanced than that. There are definitely people (myself included) who have been directly impacted by global tech outsourcing. I won't get into the specifics but I can tell you that there are an increasing number of dev shops outside of the US that are specializing in solid communication. That's been one of the biggest problems and hesitations from US businesses. You need a manager in the other country, who is good. These companies are specializing in providing a excellent teams that at a fraction of the cost of a US team.
  - Spooky23 9y ago
    I didn’t mean to come across in such an insensitive way. The perspective I was coming from was a little more meta. To date we’ve seen outsourcing of business functions and consolidation of job functions where technology advancements have reduced labor needs. VMWare eliminated datacenter hardware teams. AWS eliminated data centers. Modern clients eliminate all of the bullshit associated with Windows PCs. We are getting to a point where business functions will go down the same path. This is an age of giants.
- dv_dt 9y ago
  > The last big place that I worked could easily cut tech headcount in half and hardly notice. This is sometimes true, but you have to be careful about myths about occupied capacity (of people and machines). If 100% of the people are occupied, it's very likely that the company is very understaffed and can easily get into trouble too. When xx% of the people are idle, you might look next week, or the next phase of a project and a different slice will be idle, and this may be the fastest, most efficient way to get the work done for large or complex work.
kjdndisneinj 9y ago
> quickly reducing the implicit bargaining power that we've enjoyed for the last 10 years. Why not codify that bargaining power into a series of employee-owned organizations that are able to negotiate for salaries in line with that cost of living? There might be some growing pains, but it would certainly be better than the current trend of a few CEOs, VCs, and upper managers hoarding capital for little more than artificially expensive Bay Area real estate.

jeffreyrogers 9y ago

Tech has a natural moat in that only a small portion of the population is smart and driven enough to do well in it, so I expect decent paying jobs for the foreseeable future. And while some of high profile startups might have unviable business models, most of the established companies actually have pretty good metrics, so I don't seem them as being in danger of going out of business unless some legislation comes along that completely undermines their ability to do business. Obviously it's still smart to save and plan for a period of unemployment though.

ForHackernews 9y ago
There's a lot of people on this rock. Even if only a "small portion of the population" can do the work, that means there are tens of millions (literally) around the world who could do your job as well or better than you. You are the lucky beneficiary of restrictive immigration and employment policies.
- 21 9y ago
  There are places with less restrictive immigration (Europe) and salaries are still very high. The supply of decent programmers is just not enough to cover demand.
  - ElysianEagle 9y ago
    It's my understanding that all the countries in Europe where salaries for software engineers are high, have rather strict immigration policies.
    - 21 9y ago
      1. Other EU citizens can basically move around freely, from poor paying countries (Eastern Europe) to good paying ones. 2. Even for non-EU citizens, it's way way easier to get a software job (the company can get a visa for you). There is no H1B style cap. If you get an offer, you get the visa & job. True, for the first few years the visa might be tied to the job, but this just means that you need to have a new offer before leaving the previous job.
  - redundo_twa 9y ago
    > salaries are still very high Much less so than in the US, though. To be honest I think that's more an effect of different cultural values ("novelty" and "bootstrapping" here are not as celebrated as in the US), but there is definitely a difference.
  - xxpor 9y ago
    Salaries are not high in Europe compared to the US.

Spooky23 9y ago

Tech is not a meritocracy. Many of us like to think of it that way, but the reality is that most of the jobs associated with tech are bullshit, and much of tech headcount is IT. The last big place that I worked could easily cut tech headcount in half and hardly notice. A decade from now they can probably reduce headcount 80% in IT and 75% in the business. The impact of global growth won’t impact jobs directly for awhile. When Chinese companies start pumping out superior product that westerners cannot even read the manuals for, that will be the big crack.

rubicon33 9y ago
> The impact of global growth won’t impact jobs directly for awhile. That's a definitive statement that is more nuanced than that. There are definitely people (myself included) who have been directly impacted by global tech outsourcing. I won't get into the specifics but I can tell you that there are an increasing number of dev shops outside of the US that are specializing in solid communication. That's been one of the biggest problems and hesitations from US businesses. You need a manager in the other country, who is good. These companies are specializing in providing a excellent teams that at a fraction of the cost of a US team.
- Spooky23 9y ago
  I didn’t mean to come across in such an insensitive way. The perspective I was coming from was a little more meta. To date we’ve seen outsourcing of business functions and consolidation of job functions where technology advancements have reduced labor needs. VMWare eliminated datacenter hardware teams. AWS eliminated data centers. Modern clients eliminate all of the bullshit associated with Windows PCs. We are getting to a point where business functions will go down the same path. This is an age of giants.
dv_dt 9y ago
> The last big place that I worked could easily cut tech headcount in half and hardly notice. This is sometimes true, but you have to be careful about myths about occupied capacity (of people and machines). If 100% of the people are occupied, it's very likely that the company is very understaffed and can easily get into trouble too. When xx% of the people are idle, you might look next week, or the next phase of a project and a different slice will be idle, and this may be the fastest, most efficient way to get the work done for large or complex work.

kjdndisneinj 9y ago

> quickly reducing the implicit bargaining power that we've enjoyed for the last 10 years. Why not codify that bargaining power into a series of employee-owned organizations that are able to negotiate for salaries in line with that cost of living? There might be some growing pains, but it would certainly be better than the current trend of a few CEOs, VCs, and upper managers hoarding capital for little more than artificially expensive Bay Area real estate.