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I have to be honest, I may be a bit biased here, because I am bit frustrated by this mentality that innovation needs to follow a specific path Who said it has

I have to be honest, I may be a bit biased here, because I am bit frustrated by this mentality that innovation needs to follow a specific path Who said it has to? I didn't. What I said was that Silicon-Valley-type people often display a certain amount of hubris in believing that nobody else has ever done what they're trying to do, and therefore disregard free knowledge that others obtained at great expense. Musk is attempting the revolutionary, never-before-heard-of, herculean task of... building a factory to make cars. Strip away all the PR-speak from Musk's and Tesla's public announcements and statements, and that's what you find underneath. "Build a car factory" is not a new problem. We have over a century of prior art on things people have tried, what succeeded and what failed. It's the willful ignoring of this prior art that I'm complaining about; other companies have learned about the advantages and disadvantages of automation, for example, but the whole enterprise of Tesla is wrapped up in so much mythology around breaking new ground and being completely new that they were constitutionally incapable of admitting "yeah, this is a thing other people have done, too, maybe we should study how it went for them and learn from that".

scottie_m 9y ago
Most things Tesla seem to come down to SpaceX and Mars. When I have a conversation about a car company and it ends up veering off to Mars, I realize that it was never really a conversation about cars to begin with. Having said that, I don’t know how to cut through the mythology, some of which seems deserved. I was one of the people who thought that SpaceX was probably going to fail years ago, and I was quite wrong. Some of what you’re saying was part of my reasoning too, insofar as building and launching rockets wasn’t a new thing, but really quite an old one. Even still, I find it hard to see the future for Tesla that real fans seem to perceive. SpaceX has literally and figuratively taken off, but Tesla just seems stuck. I’m especially leery of how willing they seem to be to beta test software that can cause loss of life and limb. I also don’t see how existing Titans in the automotive space can’t just eat Tesla’s lunch, given that they can crank out a couple orders of magnitude more cars per year than Tesla. What is Tesla doing that they can’t copy, given that Tesla is still trying to figure out the assembly line?
- ubernostrum 9y ago
  SpaceX I think has a better chance of succeeding simply because it's Musk doing the thing that's historically worked for him: moving into a space where somebody else already shelled out for the fundamental R&D, then delivering iterative improvements slathered in tons of marketing sheen.

scottie_m 9y ago

Most things Tesla seem to come down to SpaceX and Mars. When I have a conversation about a car company and it ends up veering off to Mars, I realize that it was never really a conversation about cars to begin with. Having said that, I don’t know how to cut through the mythology, some of which seems deserved. I was one of the people who thought that SpaceX was probably going to fail years ago, and I was quite wrong. Some of what you’re saying was part of my reasoning too, insofar as building and launching rockets wasn’t a new thing, but really quite an old one. Even still, I find it hard to see the future for Tesla that real fans seem to perceive. SpaceX has literally and figuratively taken off, but Tesla just seems stuck. I’m especially leery of how willing they seem to be to beta test software that can cause loss of life and limb. I also don’t see how existing Titans in the automotive space can’t just eat Tesla’s lunch, given that they can crank out a couple orders of magnitude more cars per year than Tesla. What is Tesla doing that they can’t copy, given that Tesla is still trying to figure out the assembly line?

ubernostrum 9y ago
SpaceX I think has a better chance of succeeding simply because it's Musk doing the thing that's historically worked for him: moving into a space where somebody else already shelled out for the fundamental R&D, then delivering iterative improvements slathered in tons of marketing sheen.