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You cannot possibly have a meaningful trial of UBI unless most if not all of the population is receiving it. Providing a basic income to all will profoundly alt

You cannot possibly have a meaningful trial of UBI unless most if not all of the population is receiving it. Providing a basic income to all will profoundly alter the economy in some ways we can predict and in some ways we cannot.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> Providing a basic income to all will profoundly alter the economy in some ways we can predict and in some ways we cannot If proponents can't propose sensible and limited tests to de-risk a UBI proposal, it's not a serious one. There are downside risks to raising tax levels by 30%. That has to be offset with experimental data.
- scarmig 9y ago
  I'm a strong proponent of a UBI, and I agree with you 100%. But you make it sound like most UBI advocates are insisting it be inplemented in one fell swoop and have no idea how to test it empirically. That's not the case at all: this was one such test, and I'm eager to see the actual methodology and results. Another is being run by YC itself. This isn't some imaginary proposal that can never fail and can only be failed.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > you make it sound like most UBI advocates are insisting it be inplemented in one fell swoop Pardon me, didn't mean to come across that way. The history of social programs informs us to start small and scale carefully. If a program doesn't work in a town, it's unlikely to work nationwide.
    - scarmig 9y ago
      We're probably in agreement, then. Though, with a caveat: sometimes it can fail in a town but succeed on a wider scale. For instance, a city offering generous, open-access homeless benefits is almost doomed to have all its benefits swamped as it attracts homeless from around the country, but that doesn't give us much information about how the same policies would work if implemented nation-wide. In the case of the UBI, though, those effects can be worked around by designing the experiment well.
- maxxxxx 9y ago
  A limited test is hard. In my view UBI needs to be a life-long guarantee. Otherwise you would be crazy to leave the workplace only to find out that your UBI has been cut 10 years later and you have to scramble to find a job again.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > In my view UBI needs to be a life-long guarantee Even a nation-wide UBI scheme would be vulnerable to political risk. This sounds like a No True Scotsman risk. If a UBI scheme fails, you want to be able to learn from it. Not discard the attempt as not having been ambitious enough.
ghostbrainalpha 9y ago
Why can't we use countries and states that already pay citizens as examples to study the effects of UBI? In Alaska and Saudi Arabia citizens receive a portion of the income generated from oil sales, and have for decades. Can't we just look at what the effect has been on those economies? Did it incentivize smarter decision making and long term planning. Did it result in decreased productivity in the bad way (laziness)?

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> Providing a basic income to all will profoundly alter the economy in some ways we can predict and in some ways we cannot If proponents can't propose sensible and limited tests to de-risk a UBI proposal, it's not a serious one. There are downside risks to raising tax levels by 30%. That has to be offset with experimental data.

scarmig 9y ago
I'm a strong proponent of a UBI, and I agree with you 100%. But you make it sound like most UBI advocates are insisting it be inplemented in one fell swoop and have no idea how to test it empirically. That's not the case at all: this was one such test, and I'm eager to see the actual methodology and results. Another is being run by YC itself. This isn't some imaginary proposal that can never fail and can only be failed.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > you make it sound like most UBI advocates are insisting it be inplemented in one fell swoop Pardon me, didn't mean to come across that way. The history of social programs informs us to start small and scale carefully. If a program doesn't work in a town, it's unlikely to work nationwide.
  - scarmig 9y ago
    We're probably in agreement, then. Though, with a caveat: sometimes it can fail in a town but succeed on a wider scale. For instance, a city offering generous, open-access homeless benefits is almost doomed to have all its benefits swamped as it attracts homeless from around the country, but that doesn't give us much information about how the same policies would work if implemented nation-wide. In the case of the UBI, though, those effects can be worked around by designing the experiment well.
maxxxxx 9y ago
A limited test is hard. In my view UBI needs to be a life-long guarantee. Otherwise you would be crazy to leave the workplace only to find out that your UBI has been cut 10 years later and you have to scramble to find a job again.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > In my view UBI needs to be a life-long guarantee Even a nation-wide UBI scheme would be vulnerable to political risk. This sounds like a No True Scotsman risk. If a UBI scheme fails, you want to be able to learn from it. Not discard the attempt as not having been ambitious enough.

ghostbrainalpha 9y ago

Why can't we use countries and states that already pay citizens as examples to study the effects of UBI? In Alaska and Saudi Arabia citizens receive a portion of the income generated from oil sales, and have for decades. Can't we just look at what the effect has been on those economies? Did it incentivize smarter decision making and long term planning. Did it result in decreased productivity in the bad way (laziness)?