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This is the problem with extrapolating a linear trend from nonlinear data. I think few people would argue that the probability of revolution in the US in any gi

This is the problem with extrapolating a linear trend from nonlinear data. I think few people would argue that the probability of revolution in the US in any given year is as high now as it was in say 1800. When you take two data points over a period, and use those to establish a linear trend, you get misleading results. I'm nowhere near smart enough to re-crunch the numbers, but I hope someone else on HN will. Setting aside the scenario of revolution though, there are lots of other scenarios that justify "prepping" even more. Katrina is a great example; those people who chose to stay behind were left without civilized infrastructure in some areas for quite a while. Puerto Rico, too. Here in California, we have the prospect of a devastating earthquake for which we're long overdue, and we're right on the hairy edge of our firefighting resources being overwhelmed each year. I've taken a different approach to prepping. I'm a search and rescue volunteer and I have basic medical training. In case of major disaster, I hope to be a resource that can be sent into those areas. It's a different mindset from the stereotypical prepper, but we're really both working off of the same assumptions: that there's a significant chance of experiencing first-hand a collapse of civil infrastructure.

bluesnowmonkey 9y ago
> I think few people would argue that the probability of revolution in the US in any given year is as high now as it was in say 1800. Are you saying it's not? Were they cavemen in 1800, and now we are a thoughtful civilized breed? The United States has been at war most of my life. My parents lived through a war with a draft. My grandparents experienced World War 2. Seems like war is normal and peace is the aberration.
- labster 9y ago
  The Indian Wars were fought pretty much constantly from before the creation of the United States until Wounded Knee in 1890. Even for a relatively young nation, it's spent the majority of its existence at war with someone.
- thaumaturgy 9y ago
  Revolution, not war.
- simonh 9y ago
  We’re talking about civil war or unrest within its own territory, such as to potentially justify domestic gun ownership for personal defence. That’s the topic of the article, and the subject of the discussion here. In 1800 the US hadn’t even completed the Louisiana Purchase, and had many border and internal conflicts in its near future. The whole of the 19th century was a turbulent time throughout much of the Union.
millermp12 9y ago
We've also never had a nuclear war. So what was (is?) all the fuss about?

bluesnowmonkey 9y ago

> I think few people would argue that the probability of revolution in the US in any given year is as high now as it was in say 1800. Are you saying it's not? Were they cavemen in 1800, and now we are a thoughtful civilized breed? The United States has been at war most of my life. My parents lived through a war with a draft. My grandparents experienced World War 2. Seems like war is normal and peace is the aberration.

labster 9y ago
The Indian Wars were fought pretty much constantly from before the creation of the United States until Wounded Knee in 1890. Even for a relatively young nation, it's spent the majority of its existence at war with someone.
thaumaturgy 9y ago
Revolution, not war.
simonh 9y ago
We’re talking about civil war or unrest within its own territory, such as to potentially justify domestic gun ownership for personal defence. That’s the topic of the article, and the subject of the discussion here. In 1800 the US hadn’t even completed the Louisiana Purchase, and had many border and internal conflicts in its near future. The whole of the 19th century was a turbulent time throughout much of the Union.

millermp12 9y ago

We've also never had a nuclear war. So what was (is?) all the fuss about?