4 ms·
9.8% is not a safe return, no, which is why the safe return is about 7%. The worst-performing 30-year period averaged around 7%, which is what the 4% withdraw
by Obi_Juan_Kenobi 9y ago
9.8% is not a safe return, no, which is why the safe return is about 7%. The worst-performing 30-year period averaged around 7%, which is what the 4% withdraw rate is calculated from (accounting for inflation).
Obviously anything can happen, the world could end, whatever; there's no truly 'safe' option. But it's reasonable.
- bryanlarsen 9y agoIt does assume the continuation of American exceptionalism. I believe that a better benchmark would be a basket of stock markets rather than just the S&P 500. That basket would be dominated by the S&P 500 so it wouldn't change things too drastically, but it would pull that number down somewhat.