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Ron Conway’s Confidential Investment Guide: The Tech Megatrends

58 points by jasonlbaptiste 16y ago

Uhhrrr 16y ago
Maybe it's because I've been reading HN, but this seems pretty backwards-looking to me.
- rjurney 16y ago
  Can you name a portfolio that is more forwards-looking than Conway's?
  - anthonyb 16y ago
    His real one.
    - Uhhrrr 16y ago
      Above is a worthy question and one decent answer to it. I don't think Conway is disinforming here, but he probably is indeed giving names of more well-known companies and keeping some newer names closer to his chest. I'd say Conway is also behind the HN curve because of what he does. An angel usually comes into the picture months or years after the team has formed and a few ideas have been hatched, iterated, and pivoted upon. So my answer to the question is, probably YC and its clones, and a few companies like Google who work very hard at fostering innovation - the common thread being a focus on picking good people.
- faramarz 16y ago
  It's not backwards, but it is quite broad. It pretty much covers every YC company there is. Edit: I guess it is backwards. I just contradicted myself. time for bed.
gojomo 16y ago
I fear TC is going to dribble this out, one barely-readable slide JPEG at a time.
zalzally 16y ago
Where does Flipboard fall in this chart? Social? Flipboard is primarily a consumption experience with limited commenting and sharing mechanisms. Granted, those features exist, but are not the key focus. Mobile? Because it's on an iPad? I wonder if Ron is actually talking about in-your-pocket iPhone, Android, Blackberry, etc. and not larger laptop replacement products such as tablets.
dotBen 16y ago
Am I the only one that looks at that chart and thinks "huh?!? half those spaces are already saturated"? Sure, that's his manifesto to fund now (ie companies funded today probably were founded chosen 6+ months ago, and those ideas would be fresher then). Plus he gets to pick the cream of the crop. But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup today based around check-ins or a Groupon clone? Both spaces seem totally done to me - there are plenty of startups in those spaces and so you can only compete on niche (thus smaller market) or if you can totally disrupt with a genius idea (unlikely). And in both of those areas (and others in Conway's list) you have first mover advantage and network effect against you. Seems to me the trick is to consider what will be on his next list and start working on that now.
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- gojomo 16y ago
  But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup today based around check-ins or a Groupon clone? Maybe the steamrolling Zynga of the Groupon space hasn't yet arrived.
  - flipp 16y ago
    its groupon
healthyhippo 16y ago
Agreed that its generally backwards looking and at times just strange (urban entrepreneur?? really?), but there were a few points that resonated with me: 1) Conway's point that UI/UX is becoming far more important. Hipmunk seems almost entirely based on taking a crappy UX and turning it into an awesome one; there's lots more room for disruption in other industries as well 2) Point that there's a data issue-- there's tons of social information and monetization strategies are still work-in-process
- Stwerner 16y ago
  Do you think with all the screen scraping tools we're seeing come out these days, that there will be a lot more of "taking a crappy UX and turning it into an awesome one"? Not talking about to the heights that Hipmunk have taken it, but maybe somewhere between Hipmunk and all the different instant search tools we've seen.
JacobAldridge 16y ago
I'm reminded of the Chinese Box discussion (related to Turing Tests?): put a man in a box, and give him an English -> Chinese phrase book. Feed him phrases on strips of paper in English - his job is to look up the phrase, write the Chinese equivalent on the back, and hand the paper back. Voila - you have a translating machine. But can we say the machine is able to translate from English to Chinese? Knowing Conway's investment guide in no way qualifies you to pick the right people or ideas to invest in. It's a Chinese Box, and you don't speak Chinese. (You know, for metaphorical instances of 'You' and 'Chinese'.) Edit: It's the Chinese Room Argument by John Searle - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room . Searle saw it fit to give the man a whole room to complete his tasks!
albertsun 16y ago
Hmmm... 6 out of 7 of those fit Foursquare. I'm not so sure that this is 7 megatrends and not just one or two.

Uhhrrr 16y ago

Maybe it's because I've been reading HN, but this seems pretty backwards-looking to me.

rjurney 16y ago
Can you name a portfolio that is more forwards-looking than Conway's?
- anthonyb 16y ago
  His real one.
  - Uhhrrr 16y ago
    Above is a worthy question and one decent answer to it. I don't think Conway is disinforming here, but he probably is indeed giving names of more well-known companies and keeping some newer names closer to his chest. I'd say Conway is also behind the HN curve because of what he does. An angel usually comes into the picture months or years after the team has formed and a few ideas have been hatched, iterated, and pivoted upon. So my answer to the question is, probably YC and its clones, and a few companies like Google who work very hard at fostering innovation - the common thread being a focus on picking good people.
faramarz 16y ago
It's not backwards, but it is quite broad. It pretty much covers every YC company there is. Edit: I guess it is backwards. I just contradicted myself. time for bed.

gojomo 16y ago

I fear TC is going to dribble this out, one barely-readable slide JPEG at a time.

zalzally 16y ago

Where does Flipboard fall in this chart? Social? Flipboard is primarily a consumption experience with limited commenting and sharing mechanisms. Granted, those features exist, but are not the key focus. Mobile? Because it's on an iPad? I wonder if Ron is actually talking about in-your-pocket iPhone, Android, Blackberry, etc. and not larger laptop replacement products such as tablets.

dotBen 16y ago

Am I the only one that looks at that chart and thinks "huh?!? half those spaces are already saturated"? Sure, that's his manifesto to fund now (ie companies funded today probably were founded chosen 6+ months ago, and those ideas would be fresher then). Plus he gets to pick the cream of the crop. But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup today based around check-ins or a Groupon clone? Both spaces seem totally done to me - there are plenty of startups in those spaces and so you can only compete on niche (thus smaller market) or if you can totally disrupt with a genius idea (unlikely). And in both of those areas (and others in Conway's list) you have first mover advantage and network effect against you. Seems to me the trick is to consider what will be on his next list and start working on that now.

deleted 16y ago
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deleted 16y ago
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gojomo 16y ago
But would anyone on HN seriously consider starting a startup today based around check-ins or a Groupon clone? Maybe the steamrolling Zynga of the Groupon space hasn't yet arrived.
- flipp 16y ago
  its groupon

healthyhippo 16y ago

Agreed that its generally backwards looking and at times just strange (urban entrepreneur?? really?), but there were a few points that resonated with me: 1) Conway's point that UI/UX is becoming far more important. Hipmunk seems almost entirely based on taking a crappy UX and turning it into an awesome one; there's lots more room for disruption in other industries as well 2) Point that there's a data issue-- there's tons of social information and monetization strategies are still work-in-process

Stwerner 16y ago
Do you think with all the screen scraping tools we're seeing come out these days, that there will be a lot more of "taking a crappy UX and turning it into an awesome one"? Not talking about to the heights that Hipmunk have taken it, but maybe somewhere between Hipmunk and all the different instant search tools we've seen.

JacobAldridge 16y ago

I'm reminded of the Chinese Box discussion (related to Turing Tests?): put a man in a box, and give him an English -> Chinese phrase book. Feed him phrases on strips of paper in English - his job is to look up the phrase, write the Chinese equivalent on the back, and hand the paper back. Voila - you have a translating machine. But can we say the machine is able to translate from English to Chinese? Knowing Conway's investment guide in no way qualifies you to pick the right people or ideas to invest in. It's a Chinese Box, and you don't speak Chinese. (You know, for metaphorical instances of 'You' and 'Chinese'.) Edit: It's the Chinese Room Argument by John Searle - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room . Searle saw it fit to give the man a whole room to complete his tasks!

albertsun 16y ago

Hmmm... 6 out of 7 of those fit Foursquare. I'm not so sure that this is 7 megatrends and not just one or two.