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If X was not happening, then why even say Y will happen? Consider this prediction: if Hillary Clinton (X) gets elected president in 2016, then 10% of the popul
by assblaster 8y ago
If X was not happening, then why even say Y will happen?
Consider this prediction: if Hillary Clinton (X) gets elected president in 2016, then 10% of the population in Libya will be killed by US bombing campaigns in 2017 (Y).
Obviously X did not happen, so Y never occurred as a predicted result, but was Y ever a valid prediction? Y might be considered a valid prediction because Hillary Clinton intervened in Libya in the past, resulting in the toppling of Qaddafi and scores of civilians being killed in civil unrest, but it is a wild prediction that is extremely unlikely for many reasons.
So, is there any evidence that the World adopted specific remedies in the 1970s which averted catastrophic Y predicted?
- tzs 8y agoSuppose someone is swimming nude in a cold lake. I predict that if they stay in the lake for 20 more minutes (that's X), they will get hypothermia (Y). They get out of the lake two minutes later, so X ends up not happening. Are you going to argue that my prediction was not correct? Or that it is a wild prediction? In the case of several of the ones you cited, they were based on an assumption that pollution levels would continue their rapid rise unabated. But we actually did put in a significant effort to get pollution under control, which was fairly successful. (High levels of pollution have significant health, agricultural, and climate consequences, which is why they were a key part of the base of many of those predictions).
- conistonwater 8y agoYou don't even need to use a hypothetical example, this is pretty much what happened to the ozone layer.