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"... automation works best when it's added incrementally to a production process that's already working smoothly. And Musk seems to have made the same mistake S

"... automation works best when it's added incrementally to a production process that's already working smoothly. And Musk seems to have made the same mistake Smith did: bringing in way too many robots, way too quickly, leaving little time for testing and refining the process." There's a certain naivete to the Tesla story. It has both strengths and weaknesses. I think Tesla will eventually be sold to an existing major car maker or just shut down.

maxxxxx 9y ago
"I think Tesla will eventually be sold to an existing major car maker or just shut down." I think Musk will lose interest once EVs are fully commoditized, progress slows down and Tesla needs to be optimized to every detail. He seems to be more interested in "heroic" achievements and big steps. Maybe they'll find a manager who is willing to run a regular company and then Tesla will just be another manufacturer.
- HillaryBriss 9y ago
  i could easily be wrong, but, IMHO the hard challenge to being just another car manufacturer is that car manufacturing is already so competitive and dominated by large, well-funded global players. how can small upstart Tesla compete with that? up until now, the answer has been: by having this unique, kick-ass, smart, rare, high-priced and prestigious electric vehicle. the trouble is that the global majors are catching up and starting to offer their own kick-ass smart EVs. my humble guess is that no small upstart can survive as just another car manufacturer. they need a special advantage, some secret sauce. i fear Tesla won't have that in the future.
  - milesward 9y ago
    Humbly, I have yet to see any of the other players offer a kick-ass EV. Bolt is the closest, and it's pretty far from kick-ass.
    - Robotbeat 9y ago
      This. And the only one I've seen that might be a Tesla rival is BMW, but they're not much larger than Tesla and by the time they catch up to Tesla's electric car tech fully (some time in the mid 2020s), Tesla may actually have exceeded BMW's production capacity (2.5 million per year). And it's too bad. Toyota had a good thing going with Prius, but squandered a 2 decade head start by under-investing in pure electric and investing billions in the hydrogen dead-end. And GM has been under-investing in both the Volt and the Bolt, being content to just try to peel off a few other EV-centric customers from Nissan and Tesla instead of actually making a car with the marketing campaign and appeal of a mass market car. Charging networks is another place where the other car makers have been falling on their face. They often talk up charging networks, but it's still not possible to buy a car with something like Supercharger capability (only 50kW is broadly available on the car side, but only 25kW is typical for actual DC fast charge stations in the real world, at least in the US). Meanwhile, Tesla has continued to expand the Supercharger network.
      - maxxxxx 9y ago
        BMW has revenues of 120 billion USD vs Tesla's 12 billion. I think that would qualify as "much larger". And BMW knows how to produce cars profitably.
        Robotbeat 9y ago
        BMW knows how to produce cars profitably after having a much higher production and a company infrastructure paid for over decades. Tesla will also be profitable when they're producing a couple million cars per year. And, given the streamlined buying process, will likely have higher margins.
- loceng 9y ago
  I think Elon enjoys challenges, he's a holistic thinker with control and ownership developing more pieces of the puzzle than just electric vehicles, and he's incentivized with up to $55B if Tesla reaches $650B value. I believe he'll get there.
- sowbug 9y ago
  That fits with Tesla's stated plan, which is "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible." Tesla doesn't have to be the #1 auto manufacturer, nor does it even need to survive. As long as EVs are "fully commoditized," the company achieved its mission.
  - maxxxxx 9y ago
    I hope the investors have read this.
    - sowbug 9y ago
      It's hard to miss because they say it at least once during every earnings call, and it's been on their blog for around a decade. Moreover, wouldn't investors be happy to read it, according to your original point? If Musk becomes bored with a company that isn't doing what he cares about anymore because it's merely producing in-demand EV cars under a great brand, and he hands it to someone with skills like Tim Cook who can actually make the company run smoothly and profitability, isn't that the best of all worlds?
    - neolefty 9y ago
      Tesla can continue just fine after Elon moves on.
    - HillaryBriss 9y ago
      yes. so true. and, beyond merely selling off their shares, investors who could prove that management pursued a goal which significantly obstructed a reasonable return on investment probably have a viable lawsuit against management. the managers of publicly traded companies are supposed to pursue providing a return on investment. they aren't entitled to exclusively pursue other obstructive goals, even goals generally beneficial to society, company workers, the poor, etc. that's not what investors are buying into. of course, that doesn't mean investors would sue and it doesn't mean the government would necessarily investigate such a company. but there would be reasonable grounds for a lawsuit...

maxxxxx 9y ago

"I think Tesla will eventually be sold to an existing major car maker or just shut down." I think Musk will lose interest once EVs are fully commoditized, progress slows down and Tesla needs to be optimized to every detail. He seems to be more interested in "heroic" achievements and big steps. Maybe they'll find a manager who is willing to run a regular company and then Tesla will just be another manufacturer.

HillaryBriss 9y ago
i could easily be wrong, but, IMHO the hard challenge to being just another car manufacturer is that car manufacturing is already so competitive and dominated by large, well-funded global players. how can small upstart Tesla compete with that? up until now, the answer has been: by having this unique, kick-ass, smart, rare, high-priced and prestigious electric vehicle. the trouble is that the global majors are catching up and starting to offer their own kick-ass smart EVs. my humble guess is that no small upstart can survive as just another car manufacturer. they need a special advantage, some secret sauce. i fear Tesla won't have that in the future.
- milesward 9y ago
  Humbly, I have yet to see any of the other players offer a kick-ass EV. Bolt is the closest, and it's pretty far from kick-ass.
  - Robotbeat 9y ago
    This. And the only one I've seen that might be a Tesla rival is BMW, but they're not much larger than Tesla and by the time they catch up to Tesla's electric car tech fully (some time in the mid 2020s), Tesla may actually have exceeded BMW's production capacity (2.5 million per year). And it's too bad. Toyota had a good thing going with Prius, but squandered a 2 decade head start by under-investing in pure electric and investing billions in the hydrogen dead-end. And GM has been under-investing in both the Volt and the Bolt, being content to just try to peel off a few other EV-centric customers from Nissan and Tesla instead of actually making a car with the marketing campaign and appeal of a mass market car. Charging networks is another place where the other car makers have been falling on their face. They often talk up charging networks, but it's still not possible to buy a car with something like Supercharger capability (only 50kW is broadly available on the car side, but only 25kW is typical for actual DC fast charge stations in the real world, at least in the US). Meanwhile, Tesla has continued to expand the Supercharger network.
    - maxxxxx 9y ago
      BMW has revenues of 120 billion USD vs Tesla's 12 billion. I think that would qualify as "much larger". And BMW knows how to produce cars profitably.
      - Robotbeat 9y ago
        BMW knows how to produce cars profitably after having a much higher production and a company infrastructure paid for over decades. Tesla will also be profitable when they're producing a couple million cars per year. And, given the streamlined buying process, will likely have higher margins.
loceng 9y ago
I think Elon enjoys challenges, he's a holistic thinker with control and ownership developing more pieces of the puzzle than just electric vehicles, and he's incentivized with up to $55B if Tesla reaches $650B value. I believe he'll get there.
sowbug 9y ago
That fits with Tesla's stated plan, which is "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible." Tesla doesn't have to be the #1 auto manufacturer, nor does it even need to survive. As long as EVs are "fully commoditized," the company achieved its mission.
- maxxxxx 9y ago
  I hope the investors have read this.
  - sowbug 9y ago
    It's hard to miss because they say it at least once during every earnings call, and it's been on their blog for around a decade. Moreover, wouldn't investors be happy to read it, according to your original point? If Musk becomes bored with a company that isn't doing what he cares about anymore because it's merely producing in-demand EV cars under a great brand, and he hands it to someone with skills like Tim Cook who can actually make the company run smoothly and profitability, isn't that the best of all worlds?
  - neolefty 9y ago
    Tesla can continue just fine after Elon moves on.
  - HillaryBriss 9y ago
    yes. so true. and, beyond merely selling off their shares, investors who could prove that management pursued a goal which significantly obstructed a reasonable return on investment probably have a viable lawsuit against management. the managers of publicly traded companies are supposed to pursue providing a return on investment. they aren't entitled to exclusively pursue other obstructive goals, even goals generally beneficial to society, company workers, the poor, etc. that's not what investors are buying into. of course, that doesn't mean investors would sue and it doesn't mean the government would necessarily investigate such a company. but there would be reasonable grounds for a lawsuit...