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Maybe we're seeing an awakening that's different from previous episodes. Just like people woke up about tobacco use, high-fructose carbonated beverages, and wo

Maybe we're seeing an awakening that's different from previous episodes. Just like people woke up about tobacco use, high-fructose carbonated beverages, and workplace sexual abuse, maybe we're at a cultural inflection point with Facebook. Facebook will soon require 500 million people to consent to a long list of new terms and conditions to comply with GDPR. There will be no option to decline the new terms, only "accept and continue". What if 5% of users don't accept? That doesn't sound like much, but that 5% is probably the most media savvy and influential cohort on the platform. 5% defection could be a big deal in continuing the awakening. What if 25% of the people who remain with Facebook don't feel as good using it any more, and they use it 25% less. That's another 6% of activity and engagement that evaporates, making the platform less "sticky" for everyone. Just like positive network effects amplified Facebook's importance, negative network effects could cascade into tectonic changes in how people use social media. No, most people won't delete it completely. Facebook will be with us for many years. But if I owned Facebook shares, I'd be worried.

matte_black 9y ago
I own Facebook shares. I’m not worried. Facebook owns several other properties and has the cash horde to buy more properties.
- wyclif 9y ago
  Yes, and this is important to understand about Facebook. Let's say for the sake of argument (and I don't really think it will pan out, but let's pretend for a sec) that Facebook takes a serious hit from the Cambridge Analytica fallout and the company is weakened considerably. Well, they're shown before that they can spin off a new "communications product" under a new name and effectively shed a lot of the ill will surrounding the parent company, but still leverage the massive benefits of their cash reserve and talent.
jamesrcole 9y ago
> What if 5% of users don't accept? ... that 5% is probably the most ... influential cohort on the platform. What's your argument for that claim?
- zaphod4prez 9y ago
  I think they're assuming that the leavers are people who were concerned and did research about it and decided to leave, while the accepters are "john/jane doe" sorts of people who dont actively question their use. It doesn't airtight-ly support their claim, but it's sort of plausible to me? Especially if we're separating [facebook for personal use] from [facebook as ad platform for promotion of myself]. I could see influential people deleting their personal accounts and continuing to use their professional accounts / run ads.
  - jamesrcole 9y ago
    But why are those people supposed to be influential?

matte_black 9y ago

I own Facebook shares. I’m not worried. Facebook owns several other properties and has the cash horde to buy more properties.

wyclif 9y ago
Yes, and this is important to understand about Facebook. Let's say for the sake of argument (and I don't really think it will pan out, but let's pretend for a sec) that Facebook takes a serious hit from the Cambridge Analytica fallout and the company is weakened considerably. Well, they're shown before that they can spin off a new "communications product" under a new name and effectively shed a lot of the ill will surrounding the parent company, but still leverage the massive benefits of their cash reserve and talent.

jamesrcole 9y ago

> What if 5% of users don't accept? ... that 5% is probably the most ... influential cohort on the platform. What's your argument for that claim?

zaphod4prez 9y ago
I think they're assuming that the leavers are people who were concerned and did research about it and decided to leave, while the accepters are "john/jane doe" sorts of people who dont actively question their use. It doesn't airtight-ly support their claim, but it's sort of plausible to me? Especially if we're separating [facebook for personal use] from [facebook as ad platform for promotion of myself]. I could see influential people deleting their personal accounts and continuing to use their professional accounts / run ads.
- jamesrcole 9y ago
  But why are those people supposed to be influential?