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The ocean is a really, really, really big place. You don't even have to submerge in order to stay relatively hidden. We don't publish the exact coordinates of c
by vinceguidry 9y ago
The ocean is a really, really, really big place. You don't even have to submerge in order to stay relatively hidden. We don't publish the exact coordinates of carrier groups because they're really hard to find when underway. You can fly a plane around for days looking for one and not find squat.
No number of drones that we can realistically produce and operate can adequately blanket the ocean. The Pacific ocean is bigger than all of the Earth's landmasses combined. Imagine trying to find a ship-sized vehicle moving through an area the size of Wyoming by plane, that's about how hard it is to find a whole carrier group just moving on the surface of the water, with publicly available information.
Without it, you're looking for a needle in a haystack the size of Wyoming.
- heavenlyblue 9y agoReally? Surface area of planet Earth: 500M km2. Horizon radius at a height of mount everest: 300km. Surface area visible: 282K km2. Number of drones needed to cover the area: 1773. Multiply it by 5 to 10 to be sure. Incredibly realistic.
- vinceguidry 9y agoWhy not make them fly higher so you can increase the horizon even farther? In fact, why not put them in orbit?
- heavenlyblue 9y agoYeah, but orbit is predictable and traceable, while drones could also fly under the clouds if required. I just don't understand the "Earth is so huge" argument. Is it, really? I've thought the only reason we can do drone strikes in Syria is exactly because it's really hard to hide if you're always being tracked.
- 3pt14159 9y agoCarrier groups aren't hidden from powers with reasonable satellite constellations or radar / sonar groups. They're hidden from Iraq or Saudi Arabia or the journalists at the New York Times. And my first thought was like your's, but I came to think that between subullites, refined SIGINT analysis for surfaced subs, and the few locations on earth we know manufacture these things I think it's going to be more possible to follow submarines than you're making it out to be. Humans have to disembark these things, at least if we want humans on them. Even in a future where all subs are autonomous they'll still need to be manufactured somewhere and will still require supply (re)provisioning. But I'm open to changing my mind on this if you have a special insight.
- vinceguidry 9y agoWe already follow subs using our subs using this kind of information. Drones don't meaningfully affect this state of affairs.