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Is the “hot hand” real? – Numberphile (video)
- darepublic 9y agoSo in a related study if we take a bunch of people with low basketball skills insult some and flatter the others there should be no different in shot percentage of either group?
- clircle 9y agoI love thinking about hot hand. When the Miller and Sanjurjo paper was published I ate it up. Here is a link to a version of that paper https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2627354 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2627354 which has in my opinion one of the greatest openings of any statistical paper: "Jack takes a coin from his pocket and decides to flip it, say, one hundred times. As he is curious about what outcome typically follows a heads, whenever he flips a heads he commits to writing the outcome of the next flip on the scrap of paper next to him. Upon completing the one hundred flips, Jack of course expects the proportion of heads written on the scrap of paper to be one-half. Shockingly, Jack is wrong. For a fair coin, the expected proportion of heads is smaller than one-half." Andrew Gelman also wrote about hot hand on this blog: http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/ http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-real...